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Sing Tao: Nomura Re-examines Its China Strategy

Primary Hong Kong news media Sing Tao News Group recently reported that leading Japanese securities firm Nomura is re-examining its Shanghai joint venture strategy as its business losses in China continue to worsen. The firm’s subsidiary Nomura Orient International Securities (NOIS) has followed the lead of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs in terms of its shrinking footprint in China: management reorganization and layoffs have occurred, and many employees have resigned. In the meantime, Nomura has cut loose about 10 Hong Kong-based investment bankers, including some who focused on China-related deals. The Hong Kong layoffs were announced very recently and affected both junior and senior bankers, including managing directors and executive directors. Kenji Teshima, chairman of Nomura’s China Business Committee, said that now is a good time to review and re-evaluate the business.

China’s Zero Covid restrictions during the pandemic seriously affected the business’ expansion during that time. More recently, the market environment has undergone major changes that affect Nomura’s operation in China. The profitability of NOIS has continuously deteriorated since its establishment at the end of 2019.

According to available documents, the losses of NOIS more than doubled last year. Although the organization’s client list and assets under management continued to grow, successive years of losses have caused concerns among Nomura’s partners. Moreover, many department heads working for NOIS have resigned since the beginning of this year, including the heads of wealth management, compliance and risk management.

Source: Sing Tao, October 26, 2023
https://std.stheadline.com/realtime/article/1960012/

China Quickly Removes the Word “Emigrate” from Search Rankings

According to a recent report by Taiwanese news site NewTalk, there was a recent surge of search volume for the word “emigrate” on China’s top social media network WeChat. Volume surged by 1,156 percent, with an astonishing 510 million searches in one day. A few days later, the term “emigrate” (移民, also translated as “migrate”) was directly deleted from the WeChat Index, demonstrating China’s authoritarian control and the fear it has of its own people.

WeChat’s search index, based on big data collected by the company, represents the change in popularity of a certain keywords on WeChat. As early as when China first implemented the Zero Covid policy, many people began searching for terms related to emmigration, and the keyword’s popularity in WeChat increased rapidly, exceeding 100 million searches. Later during the White Paper Protests near the end of 2022, people’s desire for physical mobility became even stronger, with the WeChat Index recording 116 million searches. China’s economic difficulties have led to more and more Chinese people being dissatisfied with their living conditions.

Although the Chinese authorities attempted to remove terms related to migration from the supported vocabulary of WeChat’s hot-search system, this amounts to nothing more than an act of self-deception; the population’s dissatisfaction with the government will not disappear just because the word “emigrate” has been deleted from the search index.

Source: Newtalk, October 25, 2023
https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2023-10-25/893847

China News: China National Data Bureau Open for Business

China News recently reported that the newly established China National Data Bureau officially opened for business on October 25. Below are some key excerpts from the article:

The main responsibilities of this ministry-level organization are to promote the construction of data infrastructure systems, to coordinate the integration, sharing, development and utilization of data resources, and to establish Digital China, Digital Economy, and Digital Society.

Data has been playing an increasingly important role in China’s national economic and social development. Data as a critical resource should be managed by a central ministry. At present, the scale of China’s digital economy has developed significantly. In 2022, it has reached RMB 50.2 trillion (US$6.86 trillion), accounting for more than 41 percent of the Chinese GDP, and the total volume ranked second in the world.

The Bureau will focus on improving China’s data infrastructure, which is still “hard infrastructure” based on traditional information network infrastructure and digital infrastructure designs. However, based on the characteristics of the industrialization of data elements, the second “soft infrastructure” level should include well-coordinated standards, specifications, tools, etc. This is a key point in entering the data digitization stage. More importantly, for certain industries where the data scale is relatively large, the data quality is relatively high, and the data potential is relatively rich, a data space must be established to form a new data infrastructure from bottom to top, to support the industrialization of data use.

Source: China News, October 27, 2023
https://www.chinanews.com.cn/gn/2023/10-27/10101575.shtml

Chinese Companies Stocked Up as US Chip Export Controls Tighten

On October 17th the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) issued an announcement expanding the scope of controls on the export of advanced computer chips to China. This action directly affects semiconductor giant NVIDIA’s sale of “special edition” A800 and H800 chips to China and other regions. The expanded export controls also restricts Dutch ASML from exporting certain machine models to China. Additionally, it added Chinese companies Biren Technology and Moore Thread and their subsidiaries to the “Entity List” to restrict export to them.

Many Chinese Artificial Intelligence (AI) startups have already acted to stock up on chips prior to the ban. Through various channels such as service providers, middlemen, and foreign trade agents, these Chinese companies are trying to prevent their previous orders from being cancelled while exploring avenues for obtaining additional chips in the short term.

Market research firm Counterpoint estimated that Chinese companies are now lagging behind global counterparts by about 2.5 to 3 years in fields like generative AI. According to Counterpoint, chip acquisition is not the sole factor driving this lag. The gap between China and its global counterparts is expected to widen over the next few years.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), October 23, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202310230203.aspx

Eighteen Provinces Issue Special Bonds Totaling 840.4 Billion Yuan Over Seventeen Days

China’s provincial governments have accelerated issuance of special refinancing bonds since the beginning of October. These special refinancing bonds are used to repay existing debt, including settlement of government arrears to businesses. Beijing gave the green light to issuance of such bonds so as to mitigate risks associated with local government debt.

On October 9th, Inner Mongolia became the first province to issue special bonds this year. According to local disclosure records regarding special bond issuance, the total issuance of local special bonds reached approximately 840.4 billion yuan (US$ 115 billion) within 17 days. Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning are the top three issuing provinces, with each issuing over 100 billion yuan in special bonds.

During the three years leading up to this wave of special bond issuance, there were two prior waves of special bond issuance by local governments. Both prior waves were longer in duration than the most recent 17-day wave. The first wave occurred over 10 months and amounted to about 627.8 billion yuan and the second one, 9 months in duration, totaled 504.2 billion yuan of issuance.

Source: Security Times (China), October 19, 2023
http://www.stcn.com/article/detail/1008629.html

Local Government Positions for Chinese Officials’ Children Educated Abroad?

Recently, many local governments have announced government positions hiring Chinese students who obtained degrees from certain qualifying foreign universities. For example, Beijing will selectively hire individuals who have obtained degrees between August 1, 2022, and July 31, 2024 from overseas universities ranked within the top 100 in the world (based on the 2023 Academic Ranking of World Universities by ShanghaiRanking).

Chinese college graduates have been facing a tough job market for years. Moreover, many local governments have struggled to pay their employees on time as they face big fiscal deficits. Chinese netizens have charged that these new government positions are intended to provide jobs to officials’ children who have studied overseas and then returned to China.

Source: Aboluo, October 22, 2023
https://www.aboluowang.com/2023/1022/1968901.html

Opinion: Chinese Youth Have No Opinions, They Just Follow CCTV Ideology

A a post on Chinese website Zhihu argued that Chinese youth do not have opinions of their own; their opinions are solely based on what the Chinese Communist Party’s mouthpiece China Central Television (CCTV) has taught them. The posting was removed by internet censors. The following translation is based on a copy of the post published to Twitter:

In the Russia-Ukraine War, why do most Chinese people support Russia? In the Israel-Hamas conflict, why do most support Hamas? In pandemic control, why did most people support the zero-COVID approach? The conclusion is the same in all cases: most people are “the New Youth” or “the CCTV Youth.” They believe whatever is said on CCTV. In reality, they don’t [really] support Russia, Palestine, or the zero-COVID approach; they’re simply supporting the CCTV’s news broadcast.

[Back in 2022] these people supported the zero-COVID policy and even had a full-scale online fight against those who suggested alternatives such as “coexistence with the virus.” But when CCTV announced that zero-COVID controls would be lifted and society would open up, what happened? Nothing! The zero-COVID policy supporters held no protests, they did not argue in favor of the policy, and they did not have any inclination to fight for it. There was no resistance at all. Those people did not dare to have an opinion [different from what was on CCTV]. So, in reality, China does not have pro-Russia camp, a pro-Hamas camp, or a zero-COVID camp; these positions are all temporary. The only dominant camp is the “CCTV Youth” camp.

Source: Twitter @zhanglifan, October 22, 2023

China Alienates Israel: Picking Sides by Bloc, Not by Country-Level Relationship

Zhang Ping, a Chinese scholar living in Israel, posted a tweet on X about why China has chosen not to condemn Hamas, alienating Israel following the start of the Israel-Hamas war. China made this decision despite good relations between Israel and China in the past.

Zhang Ping said that the world’s nations are now bifurcating into two blocs: the China-Russia-Iran camp, and the opposing camp led by the U.S. and its allies (including Israel). This bloc-based logic is now guiding China’s strategy for international relations.

In the past, China’s modus operandi was something like “which camp you belong to doesn’t matter; what matters is whether our relationship is good.” Recently, however, China’s operating principle has changed to “our relationship does not matter; what matters is which camp you belong to.” According to Zhang Ping, this shift in attitude started during the Russia-Ukraine War and has further developed during the recent Israel-Hamas war. Both Israel and Ukraine had good relations with China in the past. However, once conflicts arose, China chose to use bloc membership as its guiding principle, being unwilling to support either Ukraine or Israel.

During the time of globalization prior to these recent wars, individual relationships between countries held more weight [in Beijing’s eyes] than did bloc allegiances. This enabled countries, including Israel and Australia, to engage with China despite their being U.S. allies. Both Israel and Australia provided strategic port access to the Chinese, with Israel even allowing China a certain amount of control over two of its largest strategic ports in Haifa and Ashdod. Now, however, China will not support these countries no matter how good their past relations have been, as they belong to the Western camp rather than the Chinese camp. Meanwhile, European nations relied on Russia for their energy needs in the past, whereas the West has unified against Russia following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Source: Twitter @pingzhang632, Oct 17, 2023