On August 5th, the Xiamen University Cross-Strait Urban Planning Research Institute published an article titled “Urgently Prepare for Taiwan Takeover.” The paper stated that, with the increasing likelihood of Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, Beijing’s “unification” with Taiwan could come sooner than expected. According to the article, the “turmoil” observed in Hong Kong over the past few years shows that “lack of full preparation could have serious consequences for a smooth power transition.” Since Hong Kong’s policy of “50 years of no change” does not apply to Taiwan, the depth and breadth of the mainland’s takeover of Taiwan will far exceed that of Hong Kong in 1997, according to the article. “It is urgent to prepare comprehensive plans for taking over Taiwan after unification.”

The article was taken down shortly after publication. However, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank, has preserved the article and translated it into English on its website.

The CSIS published the following “key takeaways” regarding the Xiamen paper:

• Researchers at the Xiamen University Cross-Strait Institute of Urban Planning argue Beijing should set up a shadow government in preparation for intended “reunification” with Taiwan.
• The unnamed authors suggest that “reunification” will be a complex process, and the “One Country, Two Systems” model Beijing has adopted toward Hong Kong would be inappropriate for governing Taiwan. Instead, they argue that “full integration into the mainland” should be Beijing’s goal.
• They suggest Beijing set up a “Central Taiwan Work Committee” to research and prepare “post-takeover” policies on a variety of issues – including currency conversion, education systems, military integration, and customs, among others – based on a solid understanding of existing policies and institutions in Taiwan.
• They also recommend Beijing set up a “Taiwan Governance Experimental Zone,” which would be a “highly realistic physical environment” for simulating and testing out governance practices prior to “reunification.” This would involve recruiting retired military officers, civil servants, and teachers from Taiwan to train cadres from the mainland in how to govern Taiwan (thereby conferring what they call “regime building experience”).
• Importantly, the authors suggest that these activities will speed up the process of “reunification” by shaping political dynamics in Taiwan and encouraging what they call “anti-Taiwan independence” forces on the island to better organize and vocalize their positions.

Sources:
1. Radio France International, August 17, 2024
https://www.rfi.fr/cn/台湾/20240817-厦门大学呼吁尽快准备-接管台湾-并称没有类似香港50年不变问题-此文遭下架
2. CSIS website, August 5, 2024

Start Taiwan Takeover Preparations as Soon as Possible