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China’s Reaction to Trump’s Election Win

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Xinhua Commentary Series: Spotlight on the U.S. Presidential Election

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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Lianhe Zaobao: China’s Manufacturing PMI Fell in November

China’s November Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.4 percent, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the market demand has declined. Among the five sub-indexes that make up the manufacturing PMI, the new orders index, the raw materials inventory index and the employment index are all lower than the critical level of 50 percent.

The raw materials inventory index for November stood at 48.0 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decrease in stock levels for major raw materials. The employment index was 48.1 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the employment situation of the manufacturing companies has recovered slightly. Lianhe Zaobao, Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper, reported on the new PMI numbers, saying that the prosperity level in Chinese manufacturing is declining.

PMI is an indicator of financial activity reflecting purchasing managers’ acquisition of goods and services. A PMI number below 50 typically reflects a decline. China’s PMI numbers are jointly published by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and the China Bureau of Statistics.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, November 30, 2023
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/china/story20231130-1453217

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Walmart to Move Procurement Center to Vietnam

Well-known Chinese news site Tencent News recently reported that Walmart has announced it is moving procurement center from China to Vietnam.

As a global manufacturing center, China’s labor costs are rising, which undoubtedly brings additional burdens to large-scale retailers. Meanwhile, Vietnam is an emerging manufacturing country with relatively low labor costs and a loose regulatory environment. Thus, Vietnam has become Walmart’s first choice as an alternative to Chinese labor.

China’s status in the global manufacturing supply chain is gradually declining. At the same time, other countries are becoming more important links in a transformed global supply chain. These other countries include Mexico, India, Thailand, Vietnam, etc.

According to the Tencent article, these countries are likely to succeed China and become the next world factory. The impact of Walmart’s departure from China is not only the loss of an important foreign-owned retail system, but more importantly, there is a series of chain reactions that may result from Walmart’s departure. As one of the world’s largest retailers, Walmart has a huge procurement operation. Once Walmart leaves, it will no longer have demand for Chinese suppliers, which may lead to increased pressure on the survival of some small and medium-sized Chinese manufacturers. Also, Walmart has a large number of employees in China, and the departure may result in significant job losses. This will bring pressure to China’s job market and social stability. However, Walmart’s departure will provide more opportunities for Walmart’s rivals to compete for the Chinese consumer market share.

Walmart began to close its stores in China in 2016. Over 130 Walmart locations in China have closed since then.

Source: Tencent News, November 23, 2023
https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20231123A00DCU00

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

Canadian Intelligence: China Attempting to Recruit Canadian Government Employees

The Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) warned that China is plotting to recruit Canadian scholars and government officials. It has issued an alert to federal employees, warning of a large-scale email campaign from Beijing attempting to lure Canadian employees into participating in an overseas “talent program.” The alert included a photo of a recruitment email with the subject “2024 Invitation for Overseas Talents to Apply for the China Global Excellent Scientists Fund.” The CSIS stated that the email requested that recipients supply “significant” personal information and promised salaries ranging from 95,000 Canadian dollars to 374,000 Canadian dollars.

Source: Radio France International, November 25, 2023
https://www.rfi.fr/cn/国际/20231125-加情报部门警告中国针对加拿大政府雇员的招聘活动

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

China’s Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Denounces the U.S.

China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin denounced the U.S. in the routine press conference on November 28, shortly after the Biden-Xi meeting at the APEC Summit in San Francisco. The following is a translation of the transcript published on China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry website:

Reuters Reporter: According to a report from The New York Times, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and other intelligence agencies have issued warnings regarding the collaboration between the UAE company G42 and large Chinese enterprises, including Huawei. The U.S. stated that these collaborations pose a security threat. U.S. officials are concerned that advanced technologies may flow to Chinese companies or  the [Chinese] government. The report even suggests that the U.S. is considering imposing sanctions on G42. Has the UAE company [G42] raised these issues with the Chinese side? Have Chinese companies informed the Chinese government about the situation? Does China have any comments on this report?

Wang Wenbin: I am not aware of the specific situation you mentioned. What I want to emphasize is that the U.S. has repeatedly obstructed the cooperation between Chinese companies and other countries with unfounded security reasons. This is a form of economic coercion. When the relevant countries asked for credible evidence of the “security threats,” the U.S. response has been evasive and vague.

China consistently opposes the U.S. generalizing the concept of national security, politicizing, weaponizing, and broadly securitizing economic issues, and hindering normal investment and business activities between industries and companies. The actions of the U.S. seriously undermine the international economic and trade order, and they disrupt the stability of the global industrial and supply chains. They are not well-received, nor will they achieve their agenda.

Source: China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry website, November 28, 2023
https://www.mfa.gov.cn/web/fyrbt_673021/202311/t20231128_11188500.shtml

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

Consular Volunteer Programs: Another of the CCP’s Long-Armed Control Mechanisms

According to a report by Spain-based human rights organization Safeguard Defenders, Beijing has established a “Consular Volunteer” mechanism over the past decade. The Consular Volunteer Programs, which operate out of Chinese consulates in foreign countries, engage in information gathering, infiltration, and surveillance globally. Beijing does not notify host countries about such programs, violating the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations. The report follows Safeguard Defenders’ disclosure last year of over 100 overseas police stations established by the Chinese government in more than fifty countries.

Such “Consular Volunteer networks” have been established in several dozen Chinese overseas communities, including in the U.S., Belgium, Sweden, Italy, the U.K., Spain, Greece, Portugal, France, the Czech Republic, Ukraine, Turkey, Chile, Malaysia, Japan, the UAE, South Africa, and other countries across five continents. The report by Safeguard Defenders has released an investigative report titled “China’s Consular Volunteers.”

According to the report, the programs would recruit Chinese overseas individuals, some unpaid but provided with operational expenses directly managed by the consulate. Working as “volunteers,” these individuals are controlled by the Chinese government to engage in the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) united front work.

The CCP’s integraiton of overseas united front networks with consular services has enabled it to systematically obtain personal information, home addresses, and contact details of different targets. The gathered information may be used to systematically harm or manipulate overseas groups or use coercive means against those who have political views unaligned with Beijing.

The Safeguard Defenders report noted that the G7 group issued a joint statement after its May 2023 summit in Hiroshima, explicitly demanding that China comply with the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations. Just a few months later, China’s State Council promulgated a set of “Consular Protection and Assistance Regulations,” effective starting September 1, 2023, which encouraged Chinese overseas consulates to recruit volunteers and to recognize and reward the volunteers’ performance.

Sources:

Radio Free Asia, November 22, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/renquanfazhi/hx2-11222023091732.html

SafeguardDefenders.com, November 21, 2023
https://safeguarddefenders.com/en/blog/chinas-consular-volunteers

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

China’s Seafood Imports from Japan Dropped by More Than 99 Percent

China responded angrily when Japan discharged treated nuclear wastewater into the sea near the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, imposing a comprehensive suspension of Japanese seafood imports since August. The General Administration of Customs of China reported that the total value of seafood imported from Japan to China in October 2023 was 2.4 million yuan (US$ 339,000), a significant decrease of 99.3 percent compared to the same month last year.

The recently-released statistics did not include data regarding September imports specifically. However, subtracting the cumulative value of January to August from the cumulative value for January to September, the remaining amount (which represents September’s seafood imports) was only 60,000 yuan, a drastic year-on-year reduction of 99.98 percent. The drop for August was 67.6 percent.

China has made up for the reduced imports by using domestic products or importing from other countries instead.

Source: Kyodo News, November 19, 2023
https://china.kyodonews.net/news/2023/11/8cbede403e53-1099.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

Market for Falsified Chinese Birth Certificates Comes to Light

Numerous Chinese medical institutions have recently been exposed for illegally selling birth certificates, revealing their pivotal role in an underground market for baby trafficking and surrogacy. Recent arrests in Xiangyang City, Hubei Province, and reports from Nanning City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, and Foshan City, Guangdong Province, highlight a widespread issue.

The birth certificate market has historical roots, enabling families to violate family planning policies (e.g. the one-child policy) or helping human traffickers to create identities for abducted children. There is an increasing trend of parents selling their biological children for profit.

Surrogacy fees range from 400,000 to 550,000 yuan (US$ 56,000 to 78,000), with an additional 10,000 yuan cost for birth certificate processing. This market involves forged documents, misrepresented information, and collaboration between medical institutions and intermediaries. In some cases, corrupt regulatory bodies are implicated as well.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), November 20, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202311200298.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Number of Chinese Students in U.S. Drops for Fourth Consecutive Year

According to a Caixin.com report, data shows that the number of Chinese international students studying in the United States has declined for four years in a row. In the past academic year, there were 289,000 Chinese students in the U.S., accounting for 27% of all international students in the country. This represents a small 0.2% decrease compared to the previous year.

The data comes from the Open Doors 2023 report recently published by the Institute of International Education (IIE). The report found that the total number of international students in the U.S. reached 1.05 million last year, a 12% increase compared to the year before. Currently, China remains the top source of international students in the U.S., accounting for 27% of all international students. India is next-largest source, accounting for 25% of international students. While the number of Chinese students dropped slightly year-over-year, the number of Indian students rapidly increased, growing by 35%.

The Open Doors report suggested that several factors could be contributing to the decline in Chinese students studying in the U.S., including geopolitical tensions between the two countries and the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on international student mobility over the past few years.

Source: Radio Free Asia, November 22, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/Xinwen/5-11222023124233.html

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations