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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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Chinese Divorces Decline for 3rd Straight Year Amid Housing Slump

Lawyers specializing in divorce cases in China say the recent housing market downturn is making couples more hesitant to divorce. The number of divorces in China has declined for three straight years, with lawyers attributing this trend partly to difficulties dividing property amid unstable housing prices.

According to mainland-Chinese media, divorce lawyer Liu Shengfei says clients have recently been taking much longer to decide on divorce. Property division, especially regarding real estate, has always been tricky in divorce cases, but now couples are facing even greater uncertainties in splitting assets due to China’s housing slump.

When a divorce is filed in China, judges usually won’t grant the divorce if one spouse firmly opposes the divorce. Additionally, as of January 2021, China has implemented a 30-day waiting period for divorces. These factors have contributed to the country’s lower divorce numbers.

Liu explains the risks to clients upfront – a lawsuit may not end in divorce, and dividing assets can be time-consuming. If spouses dispute housing value or ownership stake, further legal proceedings may be needed.

Previously, with stable or rising prices, spouses faced smaller differences in dividing real estate assets. One would keep the home, compensating the other financially per their ownership share. But now, amid difficult sales and unstable prices, deciding who gets the house and at what value is much more contentious.

According to Liu, this year several clients have been unable to proceed with their divorce due to housing market factors. The housing downturn is creating uncertainties in asset division that discourage couples from splitting.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), September 16, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202309160200.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Russia, China Bolster Energy Ties With $686M Joint Investment in Oil Transit Complex

Russia’s ONGK and China’s XY Group Industrial Development Co (轩辕集团实业开发有限公司) have agreed to jointly invest $686 million to build an oil transit complex in Russia’s Far East. This will boost Russian oil exports to China as Moscow expands infrastructure and shifts exports eastward, away from politically “unfriendly” Europe.

The financing deal was signed last week at an economic forum in Vladivostok. The complex will be built near a railway bridge crossing the Amur River, connecting Russian and Chinese border towns.

The $686 million complex will include a terminal able to store and load 5.8 million metric tons of crude oil yearly, plus oil and gas condensate blends. It will also have a warehouse for receiving, storing and distributing 1 million metric tons of petroleum products and fuel oil annually. Additionally, it will include facilities for transshipping 650,000 tons of liquefied petroleum gas per year.

China’s crude imports from Russia hit a record high in May, up 15.3% year-on-year. Meanwhile, Europe has cut Russian oil imports by 90% since the Ukraine war began.

Sanctioned by the West, Russia has turned to China as its strongest ally. China refuses to criticize Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and has increased economic cooperation, helping Russia offset losses from Western sanctions. Amid strengthening China-Russia economic ties, senior Chinese official Wang Yi visited Russia September 18-21 for strategic consultations, possibly to prepare for the leaders’ upcoming meeting.

Source: Voice of America, September 18, 2023
https://www.voachinese.com/a/russia-and-china-to-build-oil-transshipment-complex-for-686-mln-20230918/7272923.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Apple’s iPhone15 Pre-Sale in China Was Much More Successful Than Huawei

Well-known Chinese news site NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES) recently reported that, within ten minutes of going on sale, Apple’s Chinese official website crashed and remained unavailable for six to seven minutes. And in the official Tmall Apple flagship store, the first batch of iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max were sold out within one minute. According to the online sales manager in charge of the Tmall site, in half an hour, they restocked nine times and are still restocking. For now, iPhone 15 Pro Max is selling the fastest, and iPhone 15 Pro sales are also very high.

According to the iPhone reservation data released by the JD.com platform, the number of reservations for the iPhone 15 Pro model exceeds 1.13 million; the number of reservations for the iPhone 15 Pro Max, which has higher specifications and a higher price, is even greater, with more than 1.43 million reservations. Judging from this reference data, the iPhone 15 Pro models are already far ahead, unmatched by any other manufacturer, not even the breakthrough Huawei Mate 60 series made recently. Huawei recently announced a new Mate model that utilized 7-nm technology which was considered an answer to the U.S. blockage. However, Apple’s latest iPhone employs 3-nm cutting-edge technology which is far ahead and attracted much more enthusiasm in China.

Sources:
(1) NetEase, September 16, 2023
https://www.163.com/dy/article/IEPM2QJ80526D8LR.html
(2) Economy Daily (Taiwan), September 17, 2023
https://money.udn.com/money/story/5603/7444856

Briefings | | |   Information/Technology US-China Relations

CNA: Beef Soup Restaurant Fined for Providing Free Wi-Fi

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that, the Public Security Bureau of Zhenjiang City, Jiangsu Province recently fined a beef soup restaurant for providing consumers with open Wi-Fi for failing to fulfill its network security protection obligations. This restaurant provided free Wi-Fi, and you only need to enter a password to log in. They did not record the real names of customer users and was imposed an administrative penalty – the source of the law is the Cyber Security Law. Recently China has been strengthening domestic data security law enforcement, and law enforcement agencies have increased monitoring efforts and strengthened control intensity. There have been several recent cases of administrative penalties against restaurants, massage parlors and other small businesses and stores accused of not complying with the official network security requirements. China issued the Cybersecurity Law in 2016, emphasizing the maintenance of national sovereignty over cyberspace and national security control, and it came into effect on June 1, 2017. On this basis, the Data Security Law was later implemented on September 1, 2021, citing national security interests. Experts pointed out that these recent enforcement actions are a clear signal from Chinese authorities that any informal grace period is over and that companies, regardless of size, must comply with the country’s data privacy and data security laws. However, small businesses may be less able than larger businesses to take compliance measures that sometimes bring high costs.

Source: CNA, September 10, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202309100145.aspx

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics Information/Technology

UDN: U.S. Discovered Lithium Deposit in Nevada – May Be the World’s Largest

United Daily News (UDN), one of the primary Taiwanese news groups, recently reported that, according to new research published in the journal Science Advances, scientists estimate that the lithium deposit located in the McDermitt Crater on the border of Oregon and Nevada contains 20 to 40 million tons of lithium. If the estimate is correct, the lithium reserves here will be greater than those in Bolivia’s salt flats, which contain about 23 million tons. Lithium is crucial for producing the batteries needed for electric cars and other green technologies, and the U.S. may have found the world’s largest lithium deposit. This estimate could change global lithium dynamics in terms of price, supply security and geopolitics. Some of the world’s richest lithium deposits are found in salt marshes. But McDermitt Crater’s lithium is locked in clay, and this clay mineral is easier to separate. As demand for lithium batteries grows exponentially nowadays, experts warn the world could face a lithium shortage by the end of the century. While global lithium supplies are likely to remain adequate in the next couple of years, regional supply imbalances are inevitable.

Source: UDN, September 11, 2023
https://udn.com/news/story/6813/7431205

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources US-China Relations

PLA Officer Advocates Preemptive Strikes Against U.S. in Event of War

Li Li (李莉), a prominent military commentator and esteemed professor at China’s National Defense University, recently made a bold assertion during a televised discussion. In contemplating the prospect of armed conflict, Li recommended that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) consider a proactive “preemptive” approach, targeting U.S. military installations in Japan as a primary strategic objective.

Li’s perspective can be summarized as follows: “In the event of war, our foremost imperative is to preemptively neutralize U.S. military bases situated in Japan.” In her discourse, Li used the term “American imperialism” to refer to the United States and emphasized that “we will not hesitate like Russia did”. She firmly asserted that “only decisive and swift counteraction can guarantee our nation’s survival and sustained progress. We shall not delay in neutralizing U.S. ‘black’ aircraft carriers and ‘black’ bombers. We shall seize the earliest opportunity to take actions and leave the enemy no chance to breathe.”

Source: Aboluo, September 8, 2023
https://www.aboluowang.com/2023/0908/1951318.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Defense/Military US-China Relations

Huanqiu: Ministry of State Security Commented on the U.S.’ Policies Towards China

Huanqiu published an unexpected commentary by the Ministry of State Security concerning the United States’ policies towards China. Typically, such remarks emanate from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The commentary asserts that while the U.S. has shifted its strategy from the “old two approaches” to the “new two approaches” and claims that it is doomed for failure.

The core excerpt from the commentary reads as follows:

In previous decades, the U.S. adhered to the “old two approaches” regarding China, characterized as “Contact + Containment.” This approach entailed on one hand, engaging China within the international system and fostering cooperation, while concurrently executing covert infiltration and containment strategies against China. This dual-handed approach intricately shaped the complexity that has historically marked Sino-U.S. relations.

In the contemporary geopolitical landscape, the rivalry between the two global powers, the United States and China, has unequivocally become the prevailing theme in international politics. Consequently, Sino-U.S. relations have entered a novel phase, with the U.S. unveiling its “Competition + Control Competition” strategy.

The crux of this strategy lies in “Competition,” constituting the primary thrust of the U.S. approach. It encompasses economic decoupling, political coalition-building, security deterrence, information warfare, and norm/rule setting endeavors. Both the Trump and Biden administrations have been steadfast and increasingly assertive in their pursuit of this approach. Looking ahead, the U.S. may well implement even more formidable “competition” measures, with many yet unseen.

Simultaneously, the U.S. has adopted a discernible “Control Competition” tactic. While “Competition” seeks to stymie China, “Control Competition” seeks to manage this suppression without permitting it to spiral out of control. The Biden administration has repeatedly referenced concepts like “guardrails,” “thresholds,” and “parameters,” transitioning from the notion of “decoupling” to “de-risking,” and vocally committing to the “Four No’s and One Unintentional.” All these actions are aimed at maintaining control over the competitive dynamics. “Competition” constitutes a strategic move, whereas “Controlling Competition” is more tactical and serves as a complementary aspect of the overall competitive strategy.

This shift in strategy reflects three underlying objectives of the U.S. government:

  • Dissemination of Ambiguous Signals: By releasing “mixed signals,” the U.S. aims to obfuscate its intentions and make it challenging for its opponent (China) to decipher and evaluate its actions—a fundamental tactic reminiscent of the Cold War era.
  • Mitigating Overreactions: The U.S. endeavors to forestall any excessive reactions from its opponent by exhibiting “self-restraint,” a strategy that has a historical precedent in the annals of great power politics over the past few centuries.
  • Expanding Channels of Influence: The U.S. seeks to create a “dialog window” to augment avenues for influence, thereby fostering limited cooperation with its opponent.

Source: Huanqiu, September 3, 2023
https://world.huanqiu.com/article/4EOkEEy2R3N

Briefings | | |   @CS US-China Relations

China Disclosed the Espionage Case of John Shing-wan Leung

Chinese authorities accused Chinese-American community leader John Shing-wan Leung (梁成運) of espionage and sentenced him to life imprisonment in May. On September 11, the Ministry of State Security unveiled the details of Leung’s case, claiming he had served as a U.S. spy for 30 years under the guise of a Chinese community leader in the U.S. and a purported “patriotic philanthropist” to China.

Leung, aged 78, was apprehended in China on April 15, 2021 and convicted of espionage by a local court on May 15. His sentence includes life imprisonment, a lifelong deprivation of political rights, and the confiscation of 500,000 RMB (US$ 69,000) in personal assets.

According to a report from the WeChat account of the “Ministry of National State Security,” Leung was born in Hong Kong in 1945 and relocated to the United States in 1983, where he operated a restaurant in a Midwestern city. U.S. intelligence personnel initiated contact with him in 1986 and formally established a cooperation agreement in 1989, recruiting him as an informant. Leung received a monthly payment of $1,000, with additional performance-based bonuses. In the same year, he acquired U.S. citizenship.

The U.S. embellished Leung’s academic credentials in the U.K., his alleged role as a U.N. official, and his purported involvement in the Vietnam War to enhance his profile. Leung was also directed to make donations to American state legislators to bolster his influence.

With financial support from the U.S., Leung held leadership positions in various overseas Chinese organizations, thereby amplifying his sway within the Chinese diaspora. He was tasked with making charitable donations in China, effectively projecting the image of a “patriotic philanthropist.”

Through social gatherings and community events, Leung cultivated close connections with Chinese diplomatic missions and personnel in the U.S., gathering intelligence, and monitoring Chinese nationals and diaspora communities. Whenever he learned of Chinese officials visiting the U.S. for official purposes, he promptly reported them to U.S. intelligence agencies. Following their directives, he would arrange meetings with them in restaurants or hotels equipped with surveillance equipment to collect information, even including setting up sexual traps to coerce those Chinese individuals.

Under the direction of multiple American intelligence operatives, Leung reportedly accumulated a substantial volume of intelligence related to China and assisted U.S. intelligence agencies in fabricating “Chinese spy cases.” He was even bestowed with a “Medal of Merit” by the head of the U.S. intelligence agency.

In 2020, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic and the suspension of international flights, U.S. intelligence agencies urgently required Chinese intelligence. Consequently, they directed Leung to travel to China at the end of 2020, where he actively participated in various social activities to gather intelligence.

The report concludes by advising overseas Chinese individuals who may be “coerced by foreign intelligence organizations” to promptly report their situations to Chinese diplomatic missions or, upon entering China, to inform national state security agencies. Those who demonstrate remorse may be granted leniency in prosecution.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), September 11, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202309110037.aspx

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations