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China’s Reaction to Trump’s Election Win

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Xinhua Commentary Series: Spotlight on the U.S. Presidential Election

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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Shanghai Expands “Recent Graduate” Definition to Combat Rising Youth Unemployment in China

China’s youth unemployment rate remains high, with August figures showing 18.8% unemployment for 16- to 24-year-olds, a new high for the year. To address this issue, Shanghai has announced measures to ease unemployment by expanding the definition of “recent graduates.”

Shanghai’s Human Resources and Social Security Bureau has issued a notice requiring state-owned enterprises and central enterprises in Shanghai to open campus recruitment positions to university graduates within two years of graduation, regardless of work experience or social security contributions.

This policy change is not unique to Shanghai. Other provinces like Hunan, Shandong, Guizhou, and Guangxi have also adjusted their criteria for recent graduate status, with variations in the time frame (e.g., Hunan extending it to three years post-graduation).

Xiong Bingqi, dean of the 21st Century Education Research Institute, suggests focusing on overall employment rather than emphasizing recent graduate status to reduce job seekers’ anxiety about their status.

China’s youth unemployment rate had previously exceeded 20% for three consecutive months from April to June 2023, peaking at 21.3% in June. The government then suspended publishing age-specific urban unemployment rates until January 2024, when they resumed with adjusted statistical methods excluding in-school students.

These measures reflect China’s ongoing efforts to address high youth unemployment and create more opportunities for recent graduates in a challenging job market.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), October 6, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202410060127.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Human Rights Watch Report: CCP Harasses Chinese Citizens in Japan

Human Rights Watch released a report revealing the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) transnational harassment and intimidation of Chinese citizens living in Japan. Several interviewees stated that due to fear of retaliation or concern for their family’s situation in China, they did not seek help from the Japanese police.

F.G., from Inner Mongolia, has lived in Japan for nearly 20 years. In 2019, CCP police went to his family’s home and threatened them. He said, “They threatened my relatives, telling them to inform me that my actions were criminal offenses against the state. They recorded all of my family members’ contact details. My relatives were terrified. Since then, my relatives have cut off contact with me.”

S.T., who moved to Japan from Xinjiang, said, “One day (in 2017), I received a call from a relative asking me to come home. I refused, and immediately a police officer took over the phone. He told me, ‘Listen to your relatives, or I cannot guarantee what might happen to your family.’” S.T. said that was the last time he spoke to his relatives.

Source: NTDTV, October 10, 2024
https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2024/10/10/a103920610.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

China’s Current Economic Challenges Far Exceed Those of 2008

A commentator discussed the difference between China’s current economic predicament and the situation back in 2008. In 2008, China was able to issue 4 trillion yuan (US$ 570 billion) to pump up the economy. This time, however, Beijing may not be able to regenerate the same result as the current situation is far worse than before.

He gave the following example:

  1. In 2008, China’s GDP was about 30 trillion yuan. By 2023, its GDP reached 126 trillion yuan, a fourfold increase, making rescue efforts much more difficult.
  2. In 2008, M2 (money supply) was 47.5 trillion yuan. By the end of 2023, M2 had exceeded 300 trillion yuan, more than six times that of 2008, leaving very little room for further monetary expansion.
  3. In 2008, the household debt ratio was less than 18 percent; it is 65 percent in 2024.
  4. At the end of 2008, local government debt was around 5 trillion yuan (roughly balanced); by 2023, the outstanding balance of local government debt was 40.74 trillion yuan.
  5. At the end of 2008, the national debt balance was about 5.33 trillion yuan, with 854.9 billion yuan in national debt issued that year. By the end of 2023, the national debt balance had reached 30.03 trillion yuan, with 11.14 trillion yuan of national debt issued over the year.

Source: Epoch Times, October 10, 2024
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/24/10/9/n14347115.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Economy/Resources

The CCP’s Mandatory App “Study Xi” Was Put to an End

Five years ago, the Central Propaganda Department of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) launched the mobile app “Study Xi to Build a Strong Country (学习强国).” It is a platform for the study of CCP ideology focused on “Xi Jinping’s Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era.” The app went live on January 1, 2019. A large number of Chinese citizens were forced to study it daily. According to reports from mainland netizens, college students, students in grades 1-12 (along with their parents), and employees at state-owned enterprises, cultural and educational institutions, and an increasing number of private companies were required to use the app. The app once became the most downloaded free app in the Apple App Store in China.

The app introduced a points-based learning system to enable employers and superiors to monitor and reward or punish users. It was reported that users could earn 1 point for logging in daily, 1 point for reading an article, and another point for watching a video. Additionally, users could earn an extra point for reading or watching for a certain amount of time. The platform also featured various quizzes and exams, with more points awarded for correct answers. To encourage people to use their own time to study, the app established three “active periods” outside of work hours (morning, noon, and evening), during which users could earn double points. An elementary school teacher in Anhui said that she needed to accumulate 42 points each day to meet the requirements.

On September 17, independent scholar Gao Falin revealed on the X platform that the “Study Xi to Build a Strong Country” app is coming to a complete end. Gao stated that he received news from friends in China that the app will no longer require login assessments from now on. People no longer have to log in every day. Since late last year, it has actually been in a semi-abandoned state, and the backend can no longer track who hasn’t logged in. This is finally the end of it.

A reporter from the Epoch Times confirmed the authenticity of this news.

Source: Epoch Times, September 21, 2024
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/24/9/20/n14335419.htm

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

Chinese September Manufacturing PMI Remains in Contraction Range

Chinese state-run media People’s Daily recently reported that China’s official September 2024 Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.8 percent, remaining in the contraction range. The PMI numbers were sourced from the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics.

Among the five sub-indices that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production sub-index was higher than the critical point (51.2 percent), and the new order sub-index (49.9 percent), raw material inventory sub-index (47.7 percent), employment sub-index (48.2 percent) and supplier delivery time sub-index (49.5 percent) were all lower than the critical point of 50 percent. The official government manufacturing PMI has now been in contraction territory for five consecutive months.

Meanwhile, the Caixin media group has just released its own Chinese Manufacturing PMI numbers for September. The Caixin PMI is a well-respected economic indicator monitored globally by financial institutions. The September Caixin PMI was 49.3 percent. According to Caixin, the September production sub-index is still in the expansion range. However, the new orders sub-index fell below the critical line, recording its lowest value since October 2022. Employment, raw material and product inventory, procurement and factory prices fell within the contraction zone. Caixin indicated that the problem of insufficient domestic effective demand is prominent, and uncertainty about foreign demand increased at the same time.

Sources:
(1) People’s Daily, September 30, 2024
http://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0930/c1004-40331760.html

(2) Caixin, September 30, 2024
https://pmi.caixin.com/2024-09-30/102241625.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Lianhe Zaobao: South Korea Launches Anti-dumping Investigation into Chinese Steel

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported that the South Korean government has announced that it will launch an anti-dumping investigation into steel plate products originating from China. Hyundai Steel, a South Korean steel manufacturer, filed an anti-dumping complaint with the Ministry of Industry, saying that Chinese traders were exporting thick plates at extra low prices, causing the company to suffer losses. Thick plates are mainly used for shipbuilding or as construction materials. According to statistics from the Korea Iron and Steel Association, South Korea imported a total of 8.73 million tons of steel from China last year, a year-over-year increase of 29.2 percent. This year’s import volume is also growing rapidly. There was no official Chinese response to South Korea’s announcement as of press time.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, October 4, 2024
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/news/china/story20241004-4940646

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Economist on China’s Real Estate Problem

Lu Ting, Chief Economist for China at Japanese Nomura Securities, delivered a speech at the 2024 Tsinghua Wudaokou Chief Economist Forum on September 28. Lu pointed out that the most significant pressure on China’s economy comes from the real estate sector and “ensuring housing delivery” is at the core of resolving the issue.

He explained that in China, real estate operates on a pre-sale system – people buy and pay (including mortgage payments) before the property is built and delivered to them. This is more akin to a futures market than a spot market. Many people propose policies to address extra houses being built but not sold. However, the real issue is not the extra houses being built, but that too many have been sold without being completed.

Using data from real estate builder Country Garden, Lu noted that the company has approximately 36,000 completed but unsold houses, 730,000 houses sold but still under construction, and 350,000 houses currently being built but not sold yet, reflecting a ratio of about “1:20:10.”

Lu estimates that the government needs over 3 trillion yuan (US$ 426 billion) to address the issue of “ensuring housing delivery.”

Source: Net Ease, September 28, 2024
https://www.163.com/dy/article/JD6DHME005568W0A.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Economy/Resources

Malaysian Sultan Thanks China for Its Organ Transplant Diplomacy

On September 20, Ibrahim, the Sultan of Malaysia, visited China and met with Xi Jinping in Beijing. Malaysia’s most influential Chinese-language media, Sin Chew Daily, reported that Ibrahim expressed gratitude to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) for arranging a liver transplant for his son Tunku Abdul Jalil, the Johor prince, during his visit to China for medical treatment. Ibrahim noted that Beijing had granted special exemptions to his son, who was a foreigner.

According to Malaysian media, Tunku Abdul Jalil was diagnosed with liver cancer in 2014 and successfully received a liver transplant at the First Hospital Affiliated to Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou in November of that year. However, he succumbed to cancer recurrence in December 2015, at the age of 25.

Another Malaysian Chinese-language media outlet reported that Ibrahim shed tears while discussing his son.

After the news of Ibrahim’s thanks to the CCP spread on overseas Chinese social media, netizens questioned, “Where did the liver come from?” Comments criticized the CCP’s organ transplant diplomacy, alleging that it takes organs from the poor (resulting in  loss of life) to “gift” foreign dignitaries in exchange for political benefits.

Source: Epoch Times, September 24, 2024
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/24/9/24/n14337110.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend