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Xinhua Commentary Series: Spotlight on the U.S. Presidential Election

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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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Miles Yu: Xi Jinping Misjudges U.S. Politics in Making Abstract Demands of Biden

In July’s episode of the “China Insider” podcast hosted by Miles Yu, who served as principal China policy and planning adviser under former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Yu talked about how Xi Jinping misjudged U.S.-China relations this year. According to Yu, Xi’s main concern has not been specific U.S. policies but rather how U.S. political ideology might influence the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) regime. Xi wished to secure a series of commitments from U.S. leadership, but what Xi asked for was not easy for the U.S. to carry out concretely. Thus Xi’s perceived stumbling blocks in U.S.-China relations have not been addressed.

In a March 2023 phone call, Biden agreed to several abstract requests made by Xi, including commitments regarding U.S. geopolitical influence over China and Taiwan. Biden’s administration has not followed up with concrete actions, however. Yu points out that Xi operates within communist China’s authoritarian and dictatorial model, so he has been unable to understand why his demands are unrealistic from the perspective of the U.S. model of government.

Yu said that Xi made several strong demands of Biden during their phone call in March.

  • First, Xi hoped that the U.S. government would clearly state that it does not seek “regime change” in China. Biden thought for a moment and gave a commitment on that.
  • Second, Xi demanded that the Biden government assure China that it won’t organize “anti-China alliances.” Biden thought about this request and said that the U.S. has a strong alliance system worldwide, but there is no alliance system specifically targeting a particular country. So Biden agreed to this request by Xi.
  • Third, Xi Jinping asked Biden to promise not to support Taiwan independence. Biden agreed.

Following the phone call, Xi believed that he had secured some fundamental ideological commitments from the U.S. government. The Biden administration, on the other hand, felt that Xi’s demands were abstract and unrealistic (hard or impossible to implement) — this is why Biden was willing to agree to them.

After the phone call, the U.S. government didn’t take any concrete measures based on Xi’s demands — they couldn’t be implemented. China has been complaining that President Biden has not kept his promises and hasn’t taken concrete actions. Under pressure from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the Biden administration sent cabinet-level members to China to visit, hoping to implement some measures from the March phone call. However, these officials (including Antony Blinken, Janet Yellen, and John Kerry) focused on specific, practical matters and did not address the larger strategic issues that were irking Xi. Indeed, in Yu’s assessment, Xi and the CCP have a misguided understanding about how the U.S. political system works — despite a series of cabinet-level visits to China, Xi’s demands couldn’t be addressed.

Source: Hudson Institute Website, July 28, 2023
https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/zhongguoneimu

Briefings | | |   @CS US-China Relations

CCTV: Former Deputy Director of the National Bureau of Statistics: China Has More Houses Than 1.4 Billion People Can Consume

Chinese Central Television (CCTV) reported that He Keng, Deputy Director of the Financial and Economic Committee of China’s 11th National People’s Congress and former Deputy Director of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, said “Currently, there is an oversupply in the real estate sector. The exact number of vacant houses varies significantly according to different experts, and with a population of 1.4 billion people, it’s unlikely that all of them can be occupied. It is not wise to aggressively promote real estate development in the face of so many vacant properties. Therefore, in this situation, real estate companies must transition early and do so proactively.” He Keng spoke on September 23 at the 2023 China Real Economy Development Conference.

Source: CCTV, September 24, 2023
https://news.cctv.com/2023/09/24/ARTIvq9vNjNa9MzGGtrgkPHo230924.shtml

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Xi Revives Mao-Era ‘Fengqiao Experience’ to Consolidate Power

{Editor’s note: The “Fengqiao Experience” refers to a practice from China’s Cultural Revolution where masses of citizens would monitor and “reform” those who are labeled as class enemies. In the town of Fengqiao, Zhejiang Province, CCP cadres relied on grassroots mobilization of masses to “reform reactionary elements,” a practice which Mao promoted for nationwide adoption.}

According to China’s CCTV, this year marks 60 years since Mao Zedong promoted implementation of the “Fengqiao Experience” throughout China. On September 20th, Xi Jinping visited the town of Fengqiao, saying that the country must “uphold and develop” the Fengqiao Experience in the new era to “correctly handle internal contradictions” and “solve problems at the grassroots level.”

Xi first mentioned the Fengqiao Experience in 2013, saying that CCP cadres in Fengqiao pioneered the practice of “relying on the people to resolve conflicts on the spot.” He asked cadres to apply “rule of law thinking and rule of law methods” in resolving issues affecting “vital interests of the masses.”

In an interview with Radio Free Asia, exiled Chinese scholar Chen Pokong said that Xi’s reintroduction of the practice shows that Xi must be facing much opposition from within the CCP, and that he is now consolidating power and mobilizing people to fight against his political opponents within the CCP.

Sources:

Radio Free Asia, September 26, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/zhengzhi/hcm-09262023070943.html

Wiktionary.org, “Fengqiao” (楓橋)
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/%E6%A5%93%E6%A9%8B
retrieved 2023-09-28

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

Central American Parliament Approves China’s Rubberstamp Congress as Permanent Observer, Abolishes Observer Status of Taiwan Legislature

The Central American Parliament ratified an agreement on September 25th to admit China’s National People’s Congress (NPC), the country’s rubberstamp Congress, as a permanent observer. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin welcomed the move at a press conference on September 26th, saying China is willing to further friendly cooperation with the Central American Parliament and countries in Central America on the basis of the one-China principle.

The agreement was approved by a majority vote at the Central American Parliament’s plenary session in Managua, Nicaragua. Wang said the decision reflects the parliament’s firm determination to develop ties with China.

On August 21st, the Central American Parliament adopted a resolution to abolish the status of Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan as permanent observer and admit China’s NPC instead. On September 22nd, the Speaker of the Central American Parliament and the NPC Standing Committee Chairman signed the agreement in Beijing, making the NPC a permanent observer.

The Central American Parliament statement said the NPC’s accession as observer will deepen dialogue around cooperation in areas like education, health, infrastructure, trade, agriculture and food security.

Source: Sputnik News, September 26, 2023
https://sputniknews.cn/20230926/1053644515.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

China’s Local Bond Issuance at Record High

China’s Ministry of Finance released an update on local government bond issuance from January to August 2022. Total issuance reached RMB 6.3 trillion, up 4% annually, hitting a record high.

The issuance by Guangdong Province was the highest, with RMB 655 billion (US$ 89.7 billion) issued, followed by Shandong (RMB 480.3 billion or US$ 65.7 billion) and Sichuan (RMB 401.1 billion or US$ 54.9 billion). Other major issuers were Hebei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang (over RMB 300 billion or US$ 41 billion each), and Henan, Anhui, Hunan, Yunnan, Guangxi, Fujian (over RMB 200 billion or US$ 27.4 billion each).

The Ministry of Finance’s report categorized bonds as either new bonds for infrastructure projects or refinancing bonds to repay maturing debt. During the period January-August, new bonds totaled RMB 3.7 trillion (US$ 510 billion), down 12% annually, and refinancing bonds totaled RMB 2.6 trillion (US$ 360 billion), up 44%.

The rise in issuance of refinancing bonds reflects increased pressure facing local governments attempting to service mature debts. China’s weak economic conditions, real estate downturn, declining government revenue from land sales, and slow tax revenue growth have all made local governments more dependent on taking out new debt to repay old debt.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), September 26, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202309260299.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Mingpao: Hong Kong’s Container Throughput Fell 16 Percent, Far Behind Shenzhen

Mingpao, one of Hong Kong’s primary newspapers, recently reported that business has decreased at Hong Kong’s container terminals. This decrease contrasts with prior expectations that demand would increase following the easing of Covid-related commerce restrictions between Mainland China and Hong Kong. Hong Kong’s ports have taken a greater hit than the nearby Mainland Shenzhen Port in the Pearl River Delta.

Hong Kong’s container throughput during the first seven months of this year fell by 15.8 percent year-over-year, totaling 8.32 million TEU (standard containers). Container throughput for the month of July was 1.2 million TEU, down 17.9 percent compared with July of 2022. Meanwhile, the nearby Shenzhen port saw only a 4 percent decrease in year-over-year throughput during the first seven months (16.35 million TEU) and had a 7.6 percent increase in year-over-year throughput for the month of July (2.82 million TEU).

There has been basically no expansion of Hong Kong’s terminals in the past decade. Meanwhile, the layouts of the ports in Guangzhou and Shenzhen have become increasingly complete. Thus, some goods are no longer shipped through Hong Kong.

According to the Hong Kong Marine Department’s April 2023 ranking of the world’s top ten container ports, Hong Kong ranked ninth from 2020 to 2022, surpassed by Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and other Greater Bay Area ports. Hong Kong was still ranked among the top three ports in the world between 2008 and 2012. It ranked fourth from 2013 to 2014 and fifth from 2015 to 2017.

Source: Mingpao, September 18, 2023
https://news.mingpao.com/pns/%E7%B6%93%E6%BF%9F/article/20230918/s00004/1694969700318/

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

RFI: U.S. Companies’ Confidence in the Chinese Market Declines to Record Low

Optimism among U.S. companies operating in China has hit a “record low” according to a Radio France Internationale (RFI) Chinese Edition report on a survey conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Shanghai. More and more companies are seeking to withdraw investment from China even as the Chinese government is taking measures to boost the country’s sluggish economy.

The AmCham report stated that, after years of pandemic disruption and restrictions, 2023 was supposed to be a year of rebound in investor confidence and optimism. However, the Chamber’s 2023 survey of U.S. companies in China found that such a rebound has not materialized and business confidence has continued to deteriorate.

In addition to poor economic conditions, tensions between Beijing and Washington have also put heavy pressure on U.S. companies operating in China. The report indicated that respondents’ optimism about the next five years is the lowest on record: only 52 percent of companies, a decrease of three percentage points from the previous year, expressed optimism about their prospects for that time period. When asked about the top three challenges they face, 60 percent of the 325 surveyed companies mentioned that US-China relations were a significant challenge, and 60 percent of respondents mentioned economic slowdown as one of the top three headwinds. Around 40 percent of companies are planning to move or have already moved capital out of China, an increase of six percentage points over last year. Southeast Asia is the most popular alternative destination to which U.S. companies are moving their production and capital.

Source: RFI Chinese, September 19, 2023
https://tinyurl.com/2kkyuh26

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources US-China Relations

CNA: Foreign Participation in Hong Kong Stock Market Plummets

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that, according to a research report by Morgan Stanley, overseas institutions’ participation in Hong Kong stocks has dropped by one third since 2021. Overseas funds are gradually withdrawing from the Hong Kong stock market.

In the years 2016 to 2020, participation of overseas institutions in Hong Kong stocks accounted for 39.5 percent, 37 percent, 36.6 percent, 32.1 percent and 39.5 percent, respectively. In 2021, participation dropped sharply to 26.7 percent, and dropped to 23.1 percent last year and 24.6 percent today. Morgan Stanley’s research showed that overseas institutional funds continue to withdraw and continue to reduce allocations to Mainland China and Hong Kong stocks. Foreign investors are less interested in participating in Mainland Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets due to uncertainty in China-US relations, political instability across the Taiwan Strait, risks in the Mainland’s real estate market, and uncertainty about the pace of China’s economic recovery.

Source: CNA, September 12, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202309120033.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend