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Taiwan CNA: Official Think Tank Report Warns of Possible Financial Panic in China

Taiwan Central News Agency reported that the National Institute for Finance Development, a senior think tank in China, recently published an internal report on China’s economy. The report was circulating on the Internet on June 24, and was carried by online websites, including Sohu. The report stated that China’s defaulting on bonds, tightening liquidity, and the fall in the exchange rates and stock markets have occurred one after another this year. Meanwhile the increase in the interest rate in the U.S. and the threat of a US-China trade conflict all suggest that the Chinese people are very likely to experience a financial panic very soon. The report concluded that, in the next several years, “preventing the occurrence and spread of financial panic” is the most important task for financial institutions to undertake. The report relied on the official May economic data which showed that the economy is getting weaker: industry added value came in below expectations, capital investment was the lowest since 2000, consumer spending continued to decline, and the increase in the total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods was only at 8.5 percent, the lowest since July 2003. The report also mentioned that the financial environment is alarming with a lack of growth in credit, tightened financing for companies, increases in credit defaults, and increased risks in the financial stock market. It further suggested that the Central Administration should come up with a crisis management plan to deal with the panic. All financial institutions and the Public Security Bureau should have plans so they do not repeat the same mistake when many institutions did not take action during the stock market turbulence in China in 2015 and the financial crisis in the U.S. in 2008. At the same time, the report recommended that China should take measures to minimize the impact of any foreign currency like the U.S. dollar. The report also indicated that financial panic is different from a financial crisis, but it will lead to a financial crisis if the investors feel lost and start to panic. According to the report, China must not ignore the fact that, in 2008, the financial crisis in the U.S. turned out to be a financial crisis globally.

Source: Central News Agency, June 27, 2018