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Government Expert Assesses the Worst Impact of Trade War on China

On October 23, Wang Yiming, the deputy director of China’s Development Research Center of the State Council, the government think tank for policy research and consulting, met with business investors. Wang told them that the impact of the Sino – US trade war is evolving from a psychological expectation to the real economy. In particular, it is affecting trade, investments, the supply chain, and employment. In the future, once the U.S. imposes the 25 percent tariff on all Chinese exports, China’s GDP growth rate will fall by 1.5 percentage points. He predicts that this will be the worst case scenario of the trade war.

Wang Yiming said that 15 manufacturing sectors will be affected greatly and negative growth will occur. The sector that will receive the most severe hit will be that of radio, television equipment, and radar facilities. This sector is expected to fall by 7.8 percentage points.

According to Wang, some enterprises have already taken the upcoming tariff factors into consideration, especially those whose production is oriented toward exporting to the U.S. Some are even considering the cancellation of new investment plans or a delay in hiring. On the technical level, Sino – US cooperation in science and technology and personnel exchanges face growing restrictions.

Source: Radio France International, October 25, 2018