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In 2017 China’s Resident Debt Burden Exceeded 53 Percent of GDP

According to Chinese media, in the first half of 2017, mainland China’s resident debt burden exceeded 53 percent of China’s GDP. This figure includes residential mortgages and loans from Peer to peer (P2P) lending.

Without residential mortgages and P2P lending, the resident debt was 3 percent of GDP in 1996, 18 percent in 2008 and it hit 47.5 percent in 2017. From 2008 to 2017, it increased by 30 percentage points. It is noteworthy that it took the United States 60 years to increase from 20 percent to 50 percent while China took fewer than 10 years.

Further, based on data from banks, the debt-to-income ratio is much higher than 78.1 percent. From 2006 to 2017, the debt-to-disposable income ratio for mainland China’s residents surged from 18.3 percent to 78.1 percent. If other types of borrowing were included, the figure would be even more alarming. That is to say, it is much higher than 78.1 percent.

Source: Sohu, May 12, 2019