On July 23, 2016, Jin Canrong, Professor and Associate Dean at the School of International Studies of Renmin University and a senior fellow at the Institute of American Studies (IAS) at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), gave a two day talk at the Southern Club Hotel in Guangzhou. Jin is a well-known expert in China on the U.S.-China relationship. He is famous for his speech made in 2018 when defining the U.S.-China relationship as “Win-win, which, in China, means China wins twice.”
During the two-day conference, Jin touched on many issues including the South China Sea, Taiwan, and the U.S.-China political trend. The original text has over 105,000 words. Even though the talk was given four years ago, it is shocking to see that, one by one, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has actually carried out these U.S. strategies that he had talked about.
Below is a partial summary of his talk on the U.S.-China relationship and on strategies.
China’s goal is to win global hegemony and put the U.S. under China’s control
A country will grow through three stages to become a superpower: ensure its own survival, sustain growth, and gain respect. For China and the US, however, there is a fourth stage which is to win global hegemony. In China, Mao Zedong solved the survival issue. Deng Xiaoping enabled China to grow. Xi Jinping is trying to gain respect in the world. Once China gains equal power with the U.S., it will be the CCP’s next generation leader’s responsibility to put the U.S. under China’s control.
China can compete with the U.S. because it has powerful resources, a long history, and an industrial capability. Unlike the former leaders in China, Xi Jinping has the courage to define China as a global power. China’s rising power has disrupted the world’s order. Xi’s global strategy includes the Belt and Road Initiative and the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Zone. The goal of the Belt and Road Initiative is to integrate the two industry bases – China and Germany – together, and then there is nothing left for the U.S. This has posed a fundamental challenge to the U.S. China has also set up the New Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, established the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone, and built islands in the South China Sea.
China has been Stealing Technology from the U.S.
China and the U.S. are closely tied economically, but they treat each other as their number one enemy when it comes to military power. Americans think that we use the Internet to steal technology from them. This may also be true. We have a large industrial power, but we lag behind in technology. … In the past 30 years, we have been importing technology. Germany helped us the most. Germany accounts for 46 percent of China’s technology imports. The U.S. has the best technology in the world, but they won’t sell it to us. If you don’t sell, we won’t be shy either. There was no Internet before, but now we have the Internet. Of course, we use it. The U.S. believes that China is the country that steals everything over the Internet, even the personal files of its federal employees. Of course, technology is the most important. They think that many key technologies like our J-20 and Dongfeng 41 were stolen from them.
There are eight conflicts that China has with the U.S.
1. China is challenging the U.S. in the regional leadership position in the Asia Pacific region;
2. China’s rising military power poses a threat;
3. China is becoming more competitive in space, the Internet, electronics and other areas; 4. China is upgrading its industrial capability and internationalizing its renminbi;
5. China declared the goal of starting ocean development and becoming a superpower in the ocean;
6. China’s inner circle has started to have different opinions and it is becoming harder to reach consensus on various policies;
7. China’s political model is a challenge to the U.S.;
8. The U.S. is getting hard to deal with and unpredictable.
China’s Long-Term Strategies in Dealing with the U.S.
China is trying different ways to deal with the U.S. For example, it is creating conditions for the U.S. to make mistakes; keeping the U.S. so occupied to the point that it wants to give up fighting China; and building a close relationship with the U.S. so it can’t fight back.
So what are China’s U.S. strategies?
1. Maintain our growth. As we continue to grow, we will reach a point where the U.S. must accept us.
2. Actively expand ourselves without directly confronting the U.S. For example, when the U.S. was in the war in Syria and busy dealing with the Ukraine, we started to build islands in the South China Sea. In June 2015, after the U.S. found out that we were building the islands, we immediately told them that we would stop the project. The real reason that we stopped was because it was the hurricane season and was too dangerous for the project to continue. Also, we needed the time to solve a technical issue of turning the sand from the sea into the land, but we kept the U.S. happy for a few months.
3. Expand cooperation with the U.S. When we increase collaboration with the U.S., it will make the competing/confronting areas smaller in the total scale of things and will make it easier to for us to resolve issues.
4. Strategically take on more international responsibilities. We have taken on more international roles than before and also we are willing to cooperate with the U.S. on those things – this is actually a tactic.
Another strategy is called “Go Deep into the U.S.” Our goal is to make business investments in every congressional district, so that we can hold a thousand or several thousands of votes in each congressional district. This will affect the representative’s position. In fact, we can control U.S. House of Representatives. The U.S. has 312 million people and 435 in the House of Representatives. The average congressional electoral district has a population of 750,000. If the voting rate is only 30 percent, about 200,000 people will vote and determine a Congress person. Generally, in a tight race, the difference between two candidates is not that big. I estimate that a close race will be determined by 10,000 or a few thousand votes. So if you have a few thousand votes in your hand, you are calling the shots. If we do well, we can buy (invest in) the U.S. and turn the U.S. Congress into the second (CCP-controlled) People’s Congress Standing Committee.
Of course, we can also have other evil tricks, such as make the world more chaotic, so the U.S. had to deal with more than one enemy. Our strategic goal is to ensure there are four enemies for the U.S. The terrorists are one, Russia can be one, and we need to get more. Brazil is possible and China put a lot of effort into preparing it, but it has not seemed to work out. Another trick is we can have the U.S. trapped in debt crisis.
Source: Jin Can Rong Fan.com, August 29, 2016