Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently published a commentary by its Beijing Commissioner. The commentary referred to comments from Chinese and Hong Kong scholars. Even for Ukraine, which is so important geopolitically to the United States, the United States has made it clear that it will not send troops. Based on this, it is fair to say that in the event of a war in the Taiwan Strait, the United States will provide military assistance and share weapons, but the possibility of sending troops directly is zero. The phrase “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow” has continued to appear in public opinion after the situation in Ukraine heated up. The Ukraine crisis is indirectly related to China because of the psychological expectations caused by the Taiwan issue. In terms of geopolitics, Ukraine is more important to the United States than Taiwan. The United States also psychologically regards Ukraine as a “semi-member” of NATO, but Taiwan does not have such a status. External events are a factor for Beijing to consider, but not a decisive factor. Even if there is a window now, for Beijing, the problem is not the reunification of the two sides of the strait, but how to solve the various governance problems that arise after the reunification. The Ukraine issue also made it clear that Russia and the U.S. cannot really come together, which is critical to China. If Russia is classified as part of the West, under the current relationship between China and the West, China will face a very dangerous situation.
Source: Lianhe Zaobao, February 20, 2022