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China’s Think Tank Report on Sino-U.S. Relations after the Russian-Ukraine War

The Chongyang Institute of Finance at Renmin University of China published a research report on May 30, titled. “The Great Siege: An Assessment of the Progress of U.S. Policy Toward China Since the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and China’s Response.” The report said that the Russia-Ukraine Conflict didn’t delay the United States from implementing comprehensive competition against China. The U.S. recently adopted an “integrated deterrence” strategy against China  and has sped up its strategic containment of China. By May 16, the U.S. had taken  24 actions to suppress China in the fields of the economy and trade, finance, ideology, military technology, and geo-politics. Though the U.S. called its strategic competition “integrated deterrence,” it has actually been conducting a “great siege” against China.

It listed five points related to the U.S. actions:

  1. Speed up building a small “Indo-Pacific economic and trade circle” (excluding China).
  2. Apply financial pressure on Chinese companies listed on the U.S. stock markets; threaten to freeze China’s assets outside China, and restrain American companies from investing in China.
  3. Attack China on the grounds of ideology .
  4. Stir up the Taiwan issue using the “salami slicing” method (advancing the U.S. position in small increments).
  5. Suppress China’s advancement in the military technology field.

Overall, the Biden Administration defines the Sino-U.S. relations as competition and its hard-line position will not change in a short period. The chance of a China-U.S. collision is increasing. There are three possibilities for the China-U.S. game:

  1. A high intensity game: China and the U.S. have a A full military confrontation.
  2. A mid-level intensity game: China and the U.S. gradually decouple.
  3. A low intensity game: The tension between China and the U.S. becomes the norm.

The report made the following recommendations:

  1. Create an anti-blockade and anti-sanction plan in the economic, trade, and finance fields. Develop Asia-Pacific regional cooperation to counter the U.S. Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF).
  2. Create a strategy to strengthen domestic finance.
  3. Speed up progress toward energy independence  and create a strategy to build self-sustained energy.
  4. Proactively define the agenda to lead the rhythm of the Sino-U.S. media fight.
  5. Talk to the world about the damage that would result from “Taiwan Independence” to prevent the U.S. from playing the Taiwan card against China.

It calls on China to give up the illusion that it can avoid strategic competition against the U.S., develop a bottom-line plan in case of a military showdown with the U.S., and proactively build the Sino-U.S. relations while adapting to the new norm of tense relations.

Sources: SINA, June 1, 2022
https://finance.sina.com.cn/china/2022-06-01/doc-imizmscu4593936.shtml?cre=tianyi&mod=pchp&loc=35&r=0&rfunc=30&tj=cxvertical_pc_hp&tr=181,

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