China’s Communist leader Hu Jintao and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met in Hanoi, Vietnam, during the 14th Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum on November 18, 2006. It was the second time they met after Abe’s visit to China in October 2006. At the Hanoi meeting, Hu expressed his interest and desire to visit Japan. Surprisingly, they did not mention the issue of the Yasukuni Shrine, which had been a thorn in Sino-Japanese relations.
Over the past five years, the relationship between China and Japan has been icy cold. There were no top-level visits between the two countries. The Beijing regime repeatedly pointed out that former Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s visits to the Yasukuni Shrine were the primary reason for worsening Sino-Japan relations. The fact that Japanese World War II leaders convicted as war criminals by an Allied tribunal are honored at the Tokyo shrine alongside millions of war dead, has been a source of anger for those affected by Japan’s military aggression before and during the war. Thus, Abe’s October visit to Beijing was viewed as an "ice-breaking tour." Beijing’s regime not only received Abe with high status; it even compromised on the most sensitive issues such as the Yasukuni Shrine and Taiwan.
Commenting on the sudden change in China’s Japan policy, the chairman of the Overseas Chinese Democracy Coalition, Mr. Wei Jingsheng, suggested that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is manipulating Japan. While attempting to soften Japan’s position, the CCP is also discouraging it from joining a Japan-U.S. Alliance.
Hu Expressed Interest in Visiting Japan
When Hu Jintao shook hands with Japan’s new prime minister in Hanoi, the suddenly warm relationship between China and Japan drew intense media attention.
During the Hanoi meeting, Shinzo Abe invited Hu Jintao to visit Japan. Hu expressed his appreciation and indicated that a detailed agenda would be arranged. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, Liu Jianchao, expressed that China is positive about Hu’s visit to Japan.
Shinzo Abe was a member of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s cabinet. He supported Koizumi’s visit to the Yasukuni Shrine. He also visited the shrine himself. Since Abe became prime minister, however, he has not visited the shrine. Even though his position on the Yasukuni Shrine remains unclear as he has remained silent on the topic, some say he is trying to mend ties with Beijing.
According to officials who attended the meeting, the Yasukuni Shrine issue was not discussed.{mospagebreak}
Eager to Improve Relations with Japan, Beijing Makes Big Concessions
Back in October, after Shinzo Abe met with Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao in Beijing, the leaders published a "China-Japan Joint Press Communiqué." The communiqué mentioned all the issues that were important to Japan, such as East Sea oil, North Korea nuclear weapons, the Chinese leader’s visit to Japan, and Japan’s permanent membership on the U.N. Security Council. On the other hand, the communiqué omitted all of the issues that China cares most about, such as Taiwan, the Yasukuni Shrine, and Japan’s Constitutional Amendment to change from the "pacifist" state it became after World War II. Now that Japan has amassed the third largest military budget in the world in total dollars spent, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe apparently wants to translate that fact into a legal reality. He is reviewing Article 9, the famous clause in the Japanese Constitution, which prohibits Japan from maintaining war-making capabilities and has upgraded the Japanese Defense Agency to a full ministry.
Japanese media also noticed the Beijing regime’s unusual behavior. An article published by Asahi Shimbun on November 2, 2006, says that the CCP has always treated "history and Taiwan" as the political baseline between the two countries; and when the communist leaders meet with foreign leaders, they always push them to declare their position on the Taiwan issue. For example, when French President Chirac visited China, during a joint press conference, he re-emphasized the French position supporting a "One China" policy.
The Asahi Shimbun article speculated that Hu Jintao is giving the improvement of Sino-Japan relationship a high priority and wants to avoid sensitive subjects, since they did not even include the "Taiwan issue" in their joint press communiqué after Abe’s meeting with the Chinese leaders.
The Chinese Communist Regime Needs A Weak Japan
Wei Jingsheng suggested that the CCP’s concessions were a trap.
Wei said that Abe’s political position is right wing. No only does Abe want to review Article 9 of the constitution, but he also has hinted at the possibility of a nuclear weapons development program to cover the possibility of interference from China and North Korea. He is for teaching patriotism in schools, a more assertive foreign policy, and a closer alliance with the United States.
Outside observers even believe that he will move further right than Koizumi, and that is not what the CCP wants. Wei said, "The CCP wishes to keep Japan in a weak position, so weak that it will not form an alliance with the United States.{mospagebreak}
"The CCP’s concession is in fact a trap. In the future, if Abe adopts a rightist policy, the CCP can blame Abe for damaging Sino-Japan relations. This will put pressure on Abe. Japanese industry will especially pressure him."
In his public speeches on his recent visit to Japan, Wei related that the CCP is having a fierce internal struggle. People have long lost trust in the CCP. Thus, the CCP smells danger everywhere and is escalating military preparedness to be able to react to unexpected incidents.
According to Wei’s analysis, the CCP would need a war to shift attention from its domestic crisis. He believes three conditions need to be in place for the CCP to invade Taiwan: The first is Russia’s support, the second is a deep division between NATO and the United States, and the third is a weak Japan.
Due to its geographic, economic, and political factors, Japan plays a very critical role in the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan issues. The United States has recently strengthened its military cooperation with Japan and put Taiwan under the protection of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty. In addition, Taiwan’s president Chen Shui-bian recently encouraged a Japanese version of the "Taiwan Relations Act" and called for a United States, Japan, and Taiwan three-way security treaty. Therefore, instead of pushing Japan away, to form an close ally with the other side, the CCP has extended a warm hand to Abe.
"Beijing needs a weak Japan and needs to keep Japan in a more manageable position in case of a military confrontation on the Taiwan issue," Wei said.
Joshua Li is correspondent for Chinascope.