On the Initial Success of China’s Grand Strategy from the Direct Charter Flights for Chinese New Year
Source: China.com, February 7, 2005
After Taiwan’s election, politicians now are focusing on the cross-Straits issues. After China’s launching of direct charter flights for the Chinese New Year to Taiwan, many people have started to pay more attention to the issue of breaking the ice between the two sides of the Straits. At this critical moment, four main figures of the pan-blue camp, including People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Song, Legislative Yuan Speaker Wang Jinping and Taipei Mayor Ma Yingjiu, have taken the opportunity to express, one after another, of their own initiative, their willingness to contribute to the cross-Straits exchanges, even as far as being the first person to break the ice on cross-Straits relations. Moreover, the newly appointed Premier of Executive Yuan Frank Hsieh also expressed his wish to visit Beijing.
At a first glance, it appears that the Taiwan-Mainland relations have been greatly improved. First, direct cross-Straits flights have become a reality. After that, Vice President Sun Yafu and Secretary-General Li Yafei from the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) went to Taipei to mourn the death of Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) Chairman Koo Chenfu, and then many politicians in Taiwan expressed the intention of visiting Beijing. On the other hand, Taiwan independence vanguard, Lee Tenghui, and Taiwan independence extremist, Chen Shuibian, suddenly disappeared into thin air in Taiwan. If the situation continues to develop at this pace, both sides of the Straits will be reunified by this time next year. But is this really the case? The answer is “no!” People in international politics and cross-Straits relations all know that China’s political influence on Taiwan is only a tiny fraction of the United States.
In Taiwan’s political circles, politicians all oppose the Chinese Communist Party, no matter whether they are pro-Taiwan independence or pro-Chinese reunification. In fact, in the beginning, Beijing also wanted to use Mainland-Taiwan economic relations to increase political influence on Taiwan. However, surprisingly it brought out such an aberrant character as the “green Taiwanese businessman,” contrary to their original intent. As a result, Mainland China had to accept a green businessman, Shi Wenlong, as a scapegoat during the Taiwan presidential election last year, in order to suppress the green force on the Island from winning the election. But we all have seen the result!
In comparison, the influence of the United States on all the political factions in Taiwan is not the same as that of Mainland China. One word by the United States is worth more than 10,000 words by China.
Back to our earlier discussion. Why did Taiwan-Mainland relations seem to have totally changed overnight? It was not that people on both sides of the Taiwan Straits were eager to see this happen, or that Taiwan authorities had been moved by the Mainland’s sincerity. It was because the United States, Taiwan’s major international supporter, had ordered Taiwan authorities to change.
Everyone on earth knows that alleviating the tension between Mainland China and Taiwan is advantageous to China, but disadvantageous to the United States and Japan. The reason for the United States to do so is because China has played “black hands” against the United States on Middle East issues. Therefore Americans cannot help but make concessions to China on other issues, in exchange for China’s cooperation on Middle East strategy. In fact, the United States has another reason—to inform Beijing of the following: Look! I was able to easily manipulate your Taiwan Province. If you want to obtain a stable and peaceful environment to develop your domestic economy, you cannot achieve it without the United States. Therefore, before the “three direct links” are officially established, any “impressive and powerful interactions, including negotiations” are fake or not reliable, making the “three direct links” out of the question. The United States will not let go of Taiwan, the “the never sinking aircraft carrier,” unless the United States has no other options.
Taiwan is China’s present interest and the Middle East is China’s long-term interest.
Those Arab countries in the Middle East are destined to be black sheep who sell their inherited property to enjoy life. In the future world, whoever controls the Middle East will control the world. Everyone on earth knows how much China is in need of oil. Oil is the blood of industry. Therefore, how to obtain a territory in the future Middle East for China’s interests, will be China’s urgent agenda in order to realize the Chinese nation’s great revival.
There is a Chinese saying: People adhering to different principles will not map their plan together, and those adhering to the same principles would map their plan together. Now China, Europe and Russia all want to have a piece of the Middle East under their own control, but America wants to take the Middle East for its own. Therefore, in the foreseeable future, there will be an intense contest between China/Europe/Russia and the United States in the Middle East. But various temptations and threats will also surface as a result.
For example, sometimes the United States asks Taiwan to fake détente with Mainland China; other times the United States lets the wicked dog, Japan, come out to confront China on the issues of the East Sea territory and Diaoyu Island. Also, it is possible that the United States could incite Southeast Asian countries including Vietnam to make troubles for China on the issue of islands in the South China Sea. It may use economic tactics, such as forcing Chinese currency Renminbi to appreciate in value and anti-dumping, to distract China’s attention from the Middle East.
This year “chartered flights for the Chinese New Year” took place. For the first time in 50 years, China’s airlines flew across the Taiwan Straits. Some experts on Taiwan issues got carried away, stating that it is probable that the United States and China could work together to curb “Taiwan independence” forces. Additionally, some media sources were overly enthusiastic when praising “Chinese New Year charter flights.” (However, we should not take them.)
From the perspective of tactics, “Chinese New Year charter flights” was the consequence of the struggle between China and the United States, regarding the Middle East. To give a vulgar analogy, Chinese fucked Americans’ assholes for the first time, and the United States felt the pains. From the perspective of strategies, what China wants is a multi-polar world, but the United States wants a singularly-polar world. “People adhering to different principles will not map their plan together.” The U.S. will never let China take over Taiwan, a strategic outpost between China and the United States. Experts on Taiwan issues should understand the pros and cons of relations.
Media’s overheated reports on the issue of charter flights could only cause people to mistakenly assume that the “nature” of the situation in the Taiwan Straits has changed. However, one has to know that the Mainland still only has a very slight political influence over Taiwan. Therefore, no matter who is the first among Taiwan political figures to visit Beijing, or regardless of the fact that ARATS Vice President Sun Yafu and Secretary-General Li Yafei went to Taipei, all of it can be regarded as part of a play directed by the United States. Only the plot has changed slightly, in the script for Taiwan independence. Now the actors of the “blue group” are on stage, and actors of the “green group” are backstage having tea. Whenever needed, would it be difficult for the great director in “Washington D.C.” to order them to exchange roles?
America’s strategy in the Middle East has been deterred in Iraq. China should take this perfect opportunity to fight with the United States and align with the European Union and Russia. Just like a newly elected government that promises to “make things happen.” Therefore, at present, regardless of Taiwan political figures who flatter Beijing, or the Japanese dogs’ wild barking, we don’t need to pay attention to them. If you want to catch small gangsters, you have to capture their leader. As long as you defeat their head, the United States, these peons will be like grasshoppers after autumn, that will not survive much longer.