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China’s Population to Shrink Dramatically: Hunan Provincial Education Bureau

An on-line document, apparently issued by Hunan Provincial Education Bureau (document number [2023] 358), indicates that China is facing a dramatic decline in population. According to the document:

  • “Preschool population is rapidly declining compared with 2021, projected to decrease 33 percent by 2025 and 54 percent by 2030.”
  • “Elementary school population will decline in 2024, is expected to decrease 46 percent by 2030 and 62 percent by 2035.”
  • “Middle school population will peak in 2024, will decline by 2030, projected to decrease 53 percent by 2035.”
  • “High school population will peak in 2027, to start declining by 2033, and will drop 24 percent by 2035.”
  • “Research on measures such as ‘transferring surplus teachers’ is required.”

There are also comments saying that the situation in Hunan (a province in central China) is still relatively good; the population crisis is more severe in Northern, Eastern, and Northeastern China.

An independent incident would seem to lend credibility to the picture painted by this document: In July 2022, data on the national population were leaked from a database at the Shanghai Police Bureau, with only 970 million people reported living in China. This suggests that China’s claimed population of 1.4 billion may be far overstated.

Source: Aboluo, December 27, 2023
https://www.aboluowang.com/2023/1227/1996120.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Xi Asked Chinese Diplomats to Continue Being “Wolf Warriors”

On December 29, 2023, Xi Jinping met with the diplomats attending the 2023 Annual Conference of Foreign Envoys and delivered a speech. Xi urged Chinese diplomats to continue being “wolf warriors”. Some key points from the speech are translated below:

  • “First, remember the original mission of the communist party and be loyal to the party. Loyalty to the Party, loyalty to the country, and loyalty to the people are the glorious traditions of the diplomatic front.”
  • “Second, be a daring and courageous innovator. Actively confront challenges and come up with practical solutions.”
  • “Third, dare to struggle and be skilled in struggles, to be defenders of national interests.”

Source: China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs website, December 29, 2023
https://www.mfa.gov.cn/web/wjdt_674879/gjldrhd_674881/202312/t20231229_11215237.shtml

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

CCP’s Tactics to Influence People in Taiwan

The director of Taiwan’s Black Bear Institute, Shen Boyang, revealed new Chinese Communist Party (CCP) tactics focused on influencing Taiwan’s elections and shaping public opinion. Shen outlined the CCP’s “raising, enticing, and attacking” strategy, part of the CCP’s united front work, where the CCP first supports individuals financially then pressures them to promote CCP-friendly narratives in Taiwan.

Starting 2014, the CCP changed its strategy to focus primarily on Taiwanese youth. The new strategy is known as “three middles and one youth” (“三中一青”): focusing on small and medium-sized enterprises, middle and low-income groups, central and southern regions, and youth. To target young people, the CCP’s online army (“the 50 cent army”) upload content to each of approximately 200 YouTube channels every day.

For example, during the COVID pandemic, the CCP created a channel to attack the policy and efforts of Chen Shih-chung, then Taiwan’s Minister of Health and Welfare. The channel had 30 million views in Taiwan. The CCP also created the supporting group accounts of Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and Vice President Lai Ching-teh on Facebook. After attracting a large number of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supporters there, the CCP started to post messages attacking Taiwanese politicians and policies.

Shen Boyang mentioned two series on TikTok – one called “DPP Resign” and another called “The DPP’s Domestic Policies Are Incompetent”. These two series garnered a total of 52 million views in Taiwan this year. Shen warned that ifTikTok users see that 99% of the news is about one party’s problems, he might think that the party is truly incompetent [being influenced by the Chinese propaganda].

Source: Epoch Times, December 31, 2023
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/23/12/31/n14147377.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

CCP Central and Local Governments Both Talk About Living Under Tight Budgets

As the Chinese economy continues to show signs of fatigue, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central and local organs are both talking about the need to tighten budgets.

The public communique of China’s National Financial Work Conference in Beijing on December 22 mentioned the term of “living under a tight budget” six times:

  • “adhere to the party and government offices’ living under a tight budget,”
  • “enhancing the quality and efficiency of work is to implement the living under a tight budget,”
  • “form the concept of living under a tight budget, establish a system to live under a tight budget,”
  • “rigorously implement the living under a tight budget,” and
  • “strengthen the supervision of living under a tight budget.”

At the local level, Zhejiang Province, Jiangsu Province, and Xiamen City of Fujian Province have all introduced regulations or issued directives requiring party and government offices to “live under a tight budget.”

Source: Epoch Times, December 23, 2023
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/23/12/23/n14142236.htm

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics

Nikkei Asia: Putin Told Xi the Ukraine-Russia War Will Last for Five Years

Nikkei Asia’s Senior Correspondent, Katsuji Nakazawa, has suggested that there are reports indicating Russian President Putin said to Chinese President Xi Jinping that Russia “will be fighting in Ukraine for at least five years” during Xi’s visit to Moscow in March of 2023.

Nakazawa views the rumored exchange as Putin’s assurance to Xi that Russia would eventually prevail in the war despite unfavorable circumstances. Despite this assurance, China started hedging its position soon after Xi’s meeting with Putin in March. Facing domestic economic challenges and potential international sanctions, China dispatched a “peace delegation” to Europe within two months of the China-Russia summit.

Putin felt that Xi had started to abandon him. To keep China on Russian’s side, Russia shared information about then-Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang during the visit of Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Rudenko to Beijing on June 25. This led to the sudden removal of Qin Gang from his position in the Chinese government.

Source: Epoch Times, December 27, 2023
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/23/12/27/n14144987.htm

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

People’s Daily: China Has Improved Relations With These Countries in 2023

People’s Daily reported that China has elevated its relationship with the following countries in 2023:

  • All Weather Partnerships: Venezuela, Ethiopia
  • Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships: Turkmenistan, Gabon, Kyrgyzstan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Solomon Islands, Georgia, Zambia, Timor-Leste, Uraguy, Vietnam
  • Comprehensive and High-Quality Forward-Looking Partnerships: Singapore
  • Strategic Partnership: Pakistan, Benin, Syria, Columbia, Nicaragua

Source: People’s Daily, December 21, 2023
http://politics.people.com.cn/n1/2023/1221/c1001-40144239.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

People’s Daily Addresses Heavy Mobile Phone Usage in Armed Police

People’s Daily ran a report on heavy mobile phone usage within the armed police unit in Hengshui City, Hebei Province. The piece, titled “Exploring ‘Proper Usage’ of Mobile Phones in Military Camps,” covered efforts to direct soldiers who spend a lot of time watching short entertaining videos or playing video games on their cell phones. Several stories were reported about inspiring soldiers to use their time well in furthering the communist party’s goals.

The Political Instructor of an armed police company noticed that soldiers’ mobile phone usage was heavy, with members of the company watching short videos, playing games, or consuming news. The instructor showed the soldiers several “meaningful” and “inspiring” videos that appeared on his own video feed, e.g. a video titled “Why did the 38th Army of the Volunteer Army become the ‘Best Army’?” (the “Volunteer Army” refers to Chinese forces deployed against US and UN forces during the Korean War) and “Explaining the Ins and Outs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.” The instructor contrasted these videos with the pop-entertainment videos appearing on the soldiers’ own video feeds, saying that only such “meaningful” and “inspiring” content could leave a deep impression in their minds. Soldiers thus started to watch such genres of video that the instructor recommended.

In another military unit, a soldier shared a picture of his camp life and forgot to blur out the face of his commanding officer (which was considered to be leaking a military secret). Seeing the soldier’s affinity for posting on social media, the commanding officer encouraged the soldier to create reports for the military unit on social media so as to cultivate a “positive” image for the unit.

Source: People’s Daily, December 21, 2023
http://military.people.com.cn/n1/2023/1221/c1011-40143905.html

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics Information/Technology

Xinhua: China’s New Drilling Ship Can Reach 11km Depth at Sea

On December 18, China conducted the inaugural trial voyage of its first domestically designed and constructed ocean drilling ship, “The Dream.” According to Xinhua News Agency, the ship has a total displacement of approximately 33,000 tons, a length of 179.8 meters, and a beam of 32.8 meters. The Dream has a cruising range of 15,000 nautical miles.

According to the Xinhua article, The Dream is capable of self sustaining on the open ocean for 120 days, and it is capable of drilling at sea to a depth of 11,000 meters. “The Dream will provide important equipment support for ocean energy resource exploration and mining … to ensure national energy security.”

Source: Xinhua, December 19, 2023
http://www.gd.xinhuanet.com/20231219/a3e549ebc8c64aec9efab0b031ead55d/c.html

Briefings | | |   Information/Technology