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China’s Population to Shrink Dramatically: Hunan Provincial Education Bureau

An on-line document, apparently issued by Hunan Provincial Education Bureau (document number [2023] 358), indicates that China is facing a dramatic decline in population. According to the document:

  • “Preschool population is rapidly declining compared with 2021, projected to decrease 33 percent by 2025 and 54 percent by 2030.”
  • “Elementary school population will decline in 2024, is expected to decrease 46 percent by 2030 and 62 percent by 2035.”
  • “Middle school population will peak in 2024, will decline by 2030, projected to decrease 53 percent by 2035.”
  • “High school population will peak in 2027, to start declining by 2033, and will drop 24 percent by 2035.”
  • “Research on measures such as ‘transferring surplus teachers’ is required.”

There are also comments saying that the situation in Hunan (a province in central China) is still relatively good; the population crisis is more severe in Northern, Eastern, and Northeastern China.

An independent incident would seem to lend credibility to the picture painted by this document: In July 2022, data on the national population were leaked from a database at the Shanghai Police Bureau, with only 970 million people reported living in China. This suggests that China’s claimed population of 1.4 billion may be far overstated.

Source: Aboluo, December 27, 2023