Briefings - 117. page

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDQ: SINA) recently reported that, according to the official statistics released by the Chinese General Administration of Customs, in the first two months of this year, China’s import and export total was US$895.72 billion, a decrease of 8.3 percent, year-over-year. Exports were US$506.3 billion, down 6.8 percent; and imports were US$389.42 billion, down 10.2 percent. In the first two months, ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) was China’s largest trading partner. The total trade value between China and ASEAN increased by of 9.6 percent year-over-year, accounting for 15.4 percent of China’s total foreign trade. The European Union is China’s second largest trading partner. The total trade value between China and the EU declined by 2.6 percent year-over-year, accounting for 13.8 percent of China’s total foreign trade. The United States is China’s third largest trading partner. The total trade value between China and the United States saw a decrease of 10.6 percent year-over-year, accounting for 11.4 percent of China’s total foreign trade. Japan is China’s fourth largest trading partner. The trade with Japan suffered a decrease of 5.7 percent, accounting for 5.6 percent of China’s foreign trade. During this time, exports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 0.4 percent, which accounts for 58 percent of China’s total exports. However, Labor Intensive products decreased by 7.4 percent. It is worth noting that the import volume of crude oil and natural gas decreased with an increase in price, and the import volume and price of soybeans both increased. China’s integrated circuits imports decreased by 26.5 percent.

Source: Sina, March 7, 2023
https://finance.sina.com.cn/china/2023-03-07/doc-imyiznuw0231357.shtml

Well-known Chinese news site NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES) recently reported that China’s foreign trade orders for the spring of 2023 dropped by 40 percent overall, of this total, traditional products dropped by more than 50 percent. Business owners are still going abroad to attract more orders, but the results are getting more and more disappointing. The Americans are gradually decoupling from China economically. For many years in the past, China has been the largest supplier of the United States, maintaining a long-term surplus. In the European market, due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, Europeans are also living a tight life. Also, in most respects, Europe is still following the United States’ lead on China policy. Under the collective influence of the EU and the U.S., Singapore has replaced Hong Kong as the Asian financial center. The countries under the Belt and Road Initiative mainly focus on investment; currently they have no ability to replace the European and the U.S. markets. After the Chinese New Year, many factories stopped recruiting workers, and those who are still recruiting, raised the threshold, chanting the slogan, “No more than 35 years old.” In important ports, such as Shanghai, Tianjin, Ningbo, etc., a large number of empty containers are piled up like mountains. Since the second half of 2022, the Shanghai’s export container freight index has plummeted by more than 80 percent. China relies on foreign trade to maintain the employment of nearly 200 million people.

Source: NetEase, March 1, 2023
https://www.163.com/dy/article/HUO52V7G05561796.html

On December 30, 2022, China’s Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Science and Technology released a draft of the “Catalogue of China’s Prohibited and Restricted Technologies for Export” for public consultation. It includes “photovoltaic silicon wafer (solar silicon wafer) technology” in the list of restricted export technologies.

However, some experts have expressed concerns that limiting the export of solar technology could harm China’s related industries. Bai Chong’en, dean of the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University, who is also a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, stated in his proposal that many overseas enterprises are already seeking alternative solutions to Chinese technology. In particular, companies in Europe and the United States are restarting the manufacturing of slicer equipment and the construction of solar rod pulling and slicing capacity.

Bai believes that foreign countries have been reducing their dependence on China’s energy sector in recent years and that restricting the exportation of solar silicon wafer preparation technology would be detrimental to China’s related industries. He also stated that the technological barrier for solar silicon wafer preparation is not high and that China’s solar industry mainly relies on the advantages of a mature supply chain and low labor costs to maintain its leading position. Moreover, other countries such as the United States, Europe, Japan, and Taiwan already possess semiconductor-grade monocrystalline silicon wafer production technology, which naturally equips them with the ability to produce solar silicon wafers.

Bai expressed concern that if China restricts the export of this technology, the prolonged approval process could make overseas cooperation and negotiations more uncertain, potentially missing the best opportunities for overseas deployment. Instead, foreign companies that master semiconductor silicon wafer technology, such as those in Europe, the United States, Japan, and South Korea, could quickly form a substitute for Chinese solar companies.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), March 6, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202303060220.aspx

In 2014, China introduced the “two-child” policy, resulting in a peak of 17.86 million births in 2016, the highest number since 2000. However, the “two-child effect” has diminished significantly, with only 15.23 million births in 2018 and a continuous decrease in subsequent years. In 2022, the number of births fell below 10 million, which means that the birth rate in China has dropped by almost half in six years.

The government’s plan to build a public preschool education system with wide coverage, basic protection, and quality by 2020 has resulted in the construction of new public kindergartens throughout the country. However, due to the decline in births, the situation has changed. A kindergarten in Wuhan, Hubei province, which was previously exclusive to children of employees of large state enterprises, is now enrolling children from the general public.

According to a professor at China’s University of International Business and Economics, the decrease in the number of educational institutions, including kindergartens, primary, and secondary schools, has been going on for some time due to the declining birth rate. In rural areas, schools have merged due to the shrinking population. In an interview with Chinese media, a professor at Beijing Normal University predicted a decline of 30 million in the number of students in compulsory education by around 2035, compared to 140 million in 2020.

The low birth rate has impacted China’s education sector, making kindergarten enrollment difficult and resulting in the shrinkage of educational institutions.

Source: Sputnik News, March 6, 2023
https://sputniknews.cn/20230306/1048470268.html