Skip to content

Briefings - 71. page

Unknown Virus Spreading in China

There is a virus spreading widely in China. Beijing said it is mycoplasma pneumonia, while some other commentators have suggested that it is likely something else. The Chinese Communist Party has a track record of withholding information about pandemics unfolding in China, including the 2002-2004 SARS outbreak and the 2019 COVID outbreak. The World Health Organization (WHO) has requested that China provide details about viruses currently circulating and any increased burden on Chinese hospitals.

China’s hospitals are currently full of patients, including children. The Pediatric Department at Beijing Tsinghua Chang Gung Hospital is used to receiving 300 cases daily, but numbers have now risen to 800. The Deputy Director of the pediatric department called it “the most significant pressure for the hospital’s pediatric department since its establishment.” Meanwhile, the internal medicine department of the Beijing Children’s Hospital has been receiving over 7,000 patients each day, and its infusion center is packed with children and their family members. Tianjin Children’s Hospital is receiving 13,000 patients each day, with some nurses feeling dizzy due to the overload of work. Shanghai’s Renji Hospital, affiliated with Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, reported that its pediatric outpatient visits exceeded 8,000 people between November 1 and November 13, a 175% increase from the same period last year.

Source: Epoch Times, November 23, 2023
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/23/11/23/n14122818.htm

Source: Nature, November 27, 2023
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03732-w

Briefings | | |   Social Stability

Cell Phone Production Shifts Overseas, China’s Cell Phone Exports Down by Over 5 Million Since 2015 Peak

China is the world’s largest manufacturer and exporter of cell phones, but exports have declined steadily from a 2015 peak of 1.343 billion units to 822 million units in 2022 – a drop of 521 million units over 7 years. Chinese media have conceded that “cell phone exports may never reach that peak again.”

According to China’s General Administration of Customs, October 2023 cell phone exports were 81.11 million units, up 10% year-over-year, but total 2023 exports in the first 10 months were down 6.4% to 642 million units. The continued export decline is largely due to falling global cell phone demand – Counterpoint research shows global smartphone shipments dropped from a 2017 peak of 1.55 billion units to 1.2 billion units in 2022 as consumers slow their upgrade cycle.

Another factor driving the decline is major brands like Samsung and Apple moving production out of China after 2014. Samsung has moved much of its production to Vietnam, Apple to other locales. This coincided with Chinese electronics manufacturing companies Xiaomi, Vivo and Oppo actively expanding overseas production bases since 2015 – notably in India and Indonesia, which have become major alternative sites. Vivo and Oppo now operate major factories in India with 60-72 million unit capacities.

Reasons for shift away from cell production in China include the rising cost of Chinese labor as well as import restrictions and tariffs by countries like India and Indonesia creating incentives for localized production in those countries.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), November 19, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202311190142.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China’s Rate of First-Time Marriages Drop Nearly 10% in 2022, Reaching Lowest Level in Years

According to China’s 2023 Statistical Yearbook, the number of first marriages in China in 2022 was 10.51 million, a 9.16% drop compared to 2021. This is the first time in years that first marriages have fallen below 11 million. The peak was in 2013 with 23.85 million first marriages; the number has dropped 55.9% over 9 years.

Dong Yuzheng, a demographic researcher affiliated with Guangdong provincial government, analyzed several factors contributing to this decline. These include:

  • The number of young people of marriageable age is decreasing.
  • As the population ages, willingness to marry is weakening among some groups.
  • The number of people not getting married is gradually rising.
  • Some marriages were postponed from late 2022 to 2023 due to the epidemic, impacting last year’s numbers.

Reasons why young people today are less likely to want marriage include: (1) changing perception of the stability of marriage, (2) changing views around obligation to get married / have children, and (3) rising costs of married life.

The decline in first marriages will lead to lower fertility rates. According to Yi Fuxian, an expert on China’s population and a senior researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, China’s demographic structure means that China’s economy will likely never surpass that of the U.S. He called on Beijing to face up to China’s declining population and civilization.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), November 20, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202311200149.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China and Saudi Arabia Sign Currency Swap Deal

According to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the central banks of China and Saudi Arabia have signed a 3-year bilateral local currency swap agreement with a size of 50 billion Chinese yuan / 26 billion Saudi riyals on November 20. The agreement can be extended beyond 3 years by mutual consent. The goals of the agreement are to strengthen financial cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia, promote use of local currencies for trade and investment between the countries, and facilitate bilateral trade and investment flows.

The swap agreement was approved by China’s State Council and establishes a framework for the two central banks to provide liquidity in each other’s currency if needed to support trade and financial stability.

Source: Sputnik News, November 20, 2023
https://sputniknews.cn/20231120/1055123725.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Oriental Daily Malaysia: Nepal to Ban TikTok

Oriental Daily, Malaysia’s most popular online Chinese-language newspaper, recently reported that Nepal said it would ban China’s TikTok app. According to the report, calls to rein in the app in had been growing, and “social harmony and goodwill were at risk” due to abuse of the popular video app.

TikTok has been partially or completely banned in some other countries, many citing security concerns. Local Nepalese media reported that Nepal registered more than 1,600 TikTok-related cybercrime cases over the past four years.

Nepal’s Minister of Communications and Information Technology said the decision to ban TikTok was made at a cabinet meeting. The Minister’s colleagues are working on the technical matter of how to implement shutting down the app. The Chairman of the Nepal’s Telecommunications Regulatory Authority said that network service providers have been asked to block the app. TikTok did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Nepal’s neighbor India banned TikTok and dozens of other apps developed by Chinese developers in June 2020, saying that they could harm national security and integrity. Another South Asian country, Pakistan, has taken action against the app at least four times because the government expressed the belief that TikTok’s content was “immoral and indecent.”

Source: Oriental Daily Malaysia, November 14, 2023
https://www.orientaldaily.com.my/news/international/2023/11/14/610553

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Information/Technology

More International Students in the U.S. Come From China Than Anywhere Else

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDAQ: SINA) recently published an article highlighting statistics from the Open Doors Report, a publication on international students studying in the U.S. The Open Doors Report is jointly released by the U.S. State Department and the non-profit Institute of International Education

According to the article, the 2022-23 academic year saw the number of international students in the U.S. higher-education system reach 1.057 million, an increase of nearly 12 percent over the year before. This was the biggest annual increase in more than 40 years.

China remains the largest source of international students in the United States. During the 2022-23 academic year, the total number of Chinese students studying in the United States was 289,500. This number has declined for the third consecutive year, although there are still more Chinese students in the U.S. than students from any other non-U.S. country.

Meanwhile, American universities are concentrating on recruiting students from India. In the 2022-23 academic year, the total number of Indian students in the United States reached 268,900, an increase of 35 percent. There are 24 U.S. states in which the number of students from India exceeds the number of students from China, including Illinois, Texas and Michigan. The majority of these Indian students – nearly 166,000 – are pursuing master’s degrees or working toward other advanced credentials.

Among international students in the U.S., graduate enrollment increased by 21 percent and undergraduate enrollment increased by only one percent. This is contrary to the trend of the past decade, which saw greater increases in undergraduate enrollment.

Mathematics and computer science majors, which attract more international students than any other major, saw enrollment increase by 20 percent over the previous year, with Engineering and Commerce following close behind.

After China and India, the other countries that sent the most students to the United States were South Korea, Canada, and Vietnam.

Source: Sina, November 14, 2023
https://edu.sina.com.cn/a/2023-11-14/doc-imzuqpzn9533439.shtml

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

Taiwan Confirms Deployment of Supersonic Missiles That can Reach Beijing

According to Chinese news site Sohu (NASDAQ: SOHU), Taiwan’s Chinese Academy of Sciences recently announced the debut of a supersonic cruise missile named Ching Tien. The missile was officially approved for development a few years ago and completed formal operational evaluation at the end of last year. The missile has entered the mass production stage, and the first batch of missiles has been deployed to the Taiwanese military’s missile command headquarters.

The Taiwan authorities expect to deploy 15-20 Ching Tien missiles on mobile launch platforms in northern and central Taiwan. The missiles are 14 meters long with a range of around 2,000 kilometers, sufficient to reach Beijing from Taiwan. With the missile’s deployment, the Taiwanese military now has a strategic weapon for medium and long-range strikes for the first time.

It is expected that mass production efficiency of this missile will further improve starting next year. Taiwanese authorities appear to be fully engaged in missile development activities, and the message is very clear: if the Mainland can use missiles to attack Taiwan, then Taiwan must also have the ability to attack Mainland China’s coastal and inland cities, including Beijing.

The new Taiwanese missile lacks the stealth penetration capabilities of some U.S. cruise missiles. Meanwhile, Mainland China’s military has already deployed a large number of air defense and anti-missile systems in the southeastern coastal areas, potentially providing some defensive protection against the new missiles.

Source: Sohu, November 18, 2023
https://www.sohu.com/a/737359248_121451179

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

Taiwan Investigates CCP Spy Network Targeting Retired Military Generals

Taiwanese authorities are investigating a case involving retired military generals implicated in espionage on behalf of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The investigation centers around suspect Zhu Kangming, who served as the secretary to Taiwanese Lieutenant General Jiang Weiguo (the brother of former Taiwanese President Jiang Jingguo). Zhu is accused of trying to help the CCP entice over 20 retired military generals to visit mainland China and accept the CCP’s hospitality.

It is reported that Zhu is a Hong Kong resident. Though he is not a retired military officer, he has connections with many important military leaders in Taiwan. From 2017 to 2023, he has continuously identified and introduced high-ranking military officers with certain specific ranks and/or in certain specific military branches, trying to persuade them to visit China or the United States for hospitality. These trips provided opportunities for the CCP’s United Front organs to contact, influence, and possibly recruit those officers, potentially convincing them to support the CCP’s “peaceful reunification” and “one country, two systems” ideologies.

Source: United Daily News, November 11, 2023
https://udn.com/news/story/7321/7567270

Briefings | | |   @CS Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend