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Briefings - 73. page

RFA: China’s October Exports Continued Trend of Decline

Radio Free Asia (RFA) recently reported that the latest data released by China’s General Administration of Customs shows China’s exports fell in October by 6.4 percent year-over year in US dollar-terms. Imports increased by 3.0 percent during the same period.

Exports from China to major trading partners such as the European Union, the United States, and Japan all declined during the first ten months of 2023. In October, China’s trade surplus was US$56.53 billion, a 30.8 percent reduction year-over-year. China’s exports have now fallen for six consecutive months.

During the first ten months of 2023, China’s exports to the ASEAN group (China’s top trading partner) increased by 0.6 percent. Meanwhile, exports to the EU, the United States and Japan (China’s 2nd, 3rd, and 4th-ranked trading partners), fell by 5 percent, 9.9 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively.

China’s foreign direct investment (FDI) deficit in the third quarter of 2023 was US$11.8 billion. This is the first time that China’s foreign exchange regulatory authorities have recorded an FDI deficit since they began compiling data in 1998. As the United States has ramped up its technology blockade against China, companies have accelerated the relocation of their supply chains away from China, replacing China’s position in the supply chain with countries in Southeast Asia or Mexico. Due to Mexico’s proximity to the North American market, even Mainland China companies have been moving production to Mexico.

Currently, more than US$1 trillion from Wall Street private equity funds is locked up in China, and Chinese companies like Evergrande have refused to repay their bonds. Such debt defaults have greatly shaken foreign businesses’ confidence and willingness to invest in China. Many U.S. investment banks worry that their investments may need to be written off as donations.

Source: RFA, November 7, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/hcm-11072023082542.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Lianhe Zaobao: People in Over 20 Countries Favor the United States Over China

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported that, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey comparing people’s views on China and the United States in 24 countries, most people support the United States far more than China.

Most respondents had a more favorable impression of U.S. President Joe Biden than of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Around 56 percent were more confident in how Biden has handled foreign affairs, while 19 percent were more confident in Xi Jinping than Biden. Across 24 countries, including Japan, Canada and Mexico, more people believe that the United States is more likely than China to consider their own country’s interests.

In countries such as South Korea, the United Kingdom, and India, the greater portion of respondents believe that the United States has contributed more to global peace and stability than China. The survey found that China has a poor image in North America, Europe and Asia, but a better image in Africa and Latin America. High-income countries tend to favor the United States more. In Japan and South Korea there are gaps of 57 percent and 62 percent, respectively, between the portions of respondents who support the United States versus those who support China. Even in the majority of middle-income countries, respondents are more confident in Biden than in Xi Jinping, with the exception of Indonesia and Hungary, where the U.S. and Chinese leaders were nearly tied in terms of respondent perceptions.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, November 7, 2023
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/news/world/story20231107-1448477

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

CNA: Estonia to Allow Taiwan to Establish Representative Office

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that the Estonian government has agreed to allow Taiwan to open an economic and cultural representative office in the Estonian capital Tallinn under the name Taipei. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna issued a statement after a regular review of Estonian policy regarding China. The statement indicated that, like many other European Union countries, Estonia is ready to accept the establishment of a non-diplomatic Taipei economic and cultural representative office to promote bilateral relations. However, Tsahkna also emphasized that Estonia does not recognize Taiwan as a country based on the one-China policy framework. He said that Estonia wants its China policy to be consistent with the EU and supports Taiwan’s participation in the World Health Organization (WHO) to fight against global disasters like the pandemic. He pointed out that “Obviously, it is also important for us that we defend fundamental values, including democracy and human rights. We stress this every time we meet with Chinese representatives.”

Source: CNA, November 4, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202311040003.aspx

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

China Introduces New Housing Reform

The CCP recently introduced a significant “housing reform” program, outlining a dual-track system primarily focusing on affordable housing to resolve housing market issues. The policy, titled “Guiding Opinions on Planning and Constructing Affordable Housing,” emphasizes two goals:

  1. increasing the construction and supply of affordable housing in major cities, and
  2. limiting investment-oriented commercial housing.

The policy stipulates that 60% of the housing market be allocated to affordable, public rental, and low-cost housing (保障性住房, affordable housing), and 40% be designated as “improved housing” housing (改善性住房, commercial housing). The policy targets three main groups as recipients of affordable housing: low-to-medium-income earners, new graduates, and “talented persons” recommended by the government for housing. Affordable housing is restricted to one unit per applicant, and it is forbidden from being turned into commercial housing. The reform aims to repurpose unused land and commercial housing inventory.

Beijing will carry out the housing reform in cities with over 3 million residents. There are 35 such cities in China, including Beijing, and Shanghai.

Some have raised concern over potential consequences of this policy:

  • it may put additional pressure on China’s commercial real estate market, pushing more real estate developers to bankruptcy;
  • it may result in financial loss for Chinese investors, who are heavily invested in real estate; and
  • China’s local governments may not have sufficient money to fund the development of affordable housing.

Source: Epoch Times, November 10, 2023
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/23/11/10/n14114014.htm

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics

In China, Conversations in Taxis Are Monitored

A netizen recently shared an experience on a social media platform in China regarding a Beijing taxi ride — there was a notice posted in the taxi indicating that all conversations would  be recorded. The notice included a line of text saying “The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is good” (probably as a reminder to the passengers not to criticize the CCP).

This incident sparked discussions among internet users. Some mentioned that taxis in many cities are conducting full-trip video recording. Some cited instances where verbal altercations between passenger and driver led to later driver reprimands.

In September 2018, Didi, China’s largest ride-hailing car servicer, announced that it would implement “safety reforms” under government pressure. China’s Ministry of Transportation led a joint investigation into Didi involving 10 departments of the government, including the CCP Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission and the Ministry of Public Security. Soon after, Didi began rolling out full-trip recording functionality for its ride-hailing service.

Source: Aboluo, November 11, 2023
https://www.aboluowang.com/2023/1111/1976870.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Social Stability

China Recalibrates “Belt and Road” Lending

AidData, a research lab at William & Mary’s Global Research Institute, released a new report titled “Belt and Road Reboot: Beijing’s Bid to De-Risk Its Global Infrastructure Initiative.” The report details how Beijing has recalibrated its financing of overseas development.

China remains the world’s largest source of international financing for infrastructure development, surpassing both the U.S. and the World Bank. The report outlines China’s strategies for mitigating risks in its lending portfolio. To address distressed debts, short-term measures include emergency lending to debtors and sweeping repayments from borrowers’ cash collateral. Meanwhile, China has been de-risking its overseas investment portfolio by outsourcing risk assessment to Western banks that have “stronger due diligence standards and safeguard policies.”

In the face of soft power challenges, Beijing has adapted its allocation of international aid and credit, emphasizing investment in countries where neither China nor the U.S. holds a dominant soft power advantage. Additionally, Beijing has doubled investment in regions where China has gained reputational favor at the expense of the U.S.

Source: AidData, November 6, 2023
https://www.aiddata.org/blog/belt-and-road-bounces-back

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

Discipline Inspector: Diplomats Face High Risk of Being Turned by Foreign Forces

The latest issue of “China Discipline Inspection and Supervision” magazine recently published a signed article by Zhang Jiwen (张际文), the head of the Discipline Inspection and Supervision Team stationed at the Office of Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) Central Foreign Affairs Working Committee. The CCP Central Foreign Affairs Working Committee is the highest CCP organ that oversees China’s foreign affair work, including the work at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The article says that Chinese diplomatic and foreign affairs officials are the main workforce of foreign affairs work and are at the forefront of such work. They face a relatively high risk of being turned (i.e. recruited) or bribed by foreign forces.

Some commentators view this as a hint regarding what happened to Qin Gang (秦刚), China’s former Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Source: The Paper, November 4, 2023
https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_25180379

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics US-China Relations

Xi Jinping Received Representatives of “Fengqiao-Style Work”

{Editor’s note: The “Fengqiao experience” was a Mao-era practice from the 1960’s. It refers to a practice from China’s Cultural Revolution where masses of citizens would monitor and “reform” those who are labeled as class enemies. In the town of Fengqiao, Zhejiang Province, CCP cadres relied on grassroots mobilization of masses to “reform reactionary elements,” a practice which Mao promoted for nationwide adoption. Xi Jinping has been making efforts to revive this practice [1]}

The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission has selected 104 work units nationwide as the role model for applying the “Fengqiao-Style Work Method.” On November 6, Xi Jinping met with representatives of the selected units at the People’s Great Hall in Beijing. He encouraged them to continue their efforts, adhere to and develop the “Fengqiao Experience” in the new era, and make greater contributions to advancing a safer China.

Aboluo commented that the meeting conveyed significant importance with attendees of all the key figures in China’s political and security apparatus: Cai Qi (member of CCP Politburo Standing Committee and real power holder second only to Xi Jinping), Li Xi (Party Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection), Chen Wenqing (Secretary of the Political and Legal Affairs Commission), Wang Xiaohong (State Council member and Minister of Public Security), Wu Zhenglong (Secretary-General of the State Council), Zhang Jun (President of the Supreme People’s Court), and Ying Yong (Chief Prosecutor of the Supreme People’s Procuratorate).

Sources:
1. Chinascope, September 28, 2023
http://chinascope.org/archives/33305
2. People’s Daily, November 7, 2023
http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2023-11/07/nw.D110000renmrb_20231107_1-01.htm
3. Aboluo, November 7, 2023
https://www.aboluowang.com/2023/1107/1974826.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Government/Politics