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China’s “Panda Diplomacy”

The Epoch Times reported that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been using giant pandas for its diplomacy agenda. As Sino-U.S. relations have soured, China plans to take back three pandas on loan to the U.S. National Zoo at Washington, DC. by end of this year. If the Atlanta Zoo cannot renew its panda contract with Beijing by next year, then the U.S. will have no panda for the first time in 50 years.

The CCP started its “Panda Diplomacy” with the West in 1972 when it gifted two giant pandas to the U.S. following Nixon’s visit to China.

Scholar Kathleen Buckingham published a research paper in 2013 outlining three phases of the CCP’s “Panda Diplomacy.”

  • The first phase, during Mao Zedong’s era, involved gifting giant pandas purely for political purposes.
  • In the second phase, under Deng Xiaoping, panda diplomacy aligned with economic reforms, with China adopting a capitalistic model to generate revenue by leasing the pandas.
  • In The third phase, starting in 2008, the leasing model has leaned towards countries with free trade agreements and technology transfer agreements with the CCP. For instance, Australia, France, and Canada have received pandas after agreeing to sell nuclear technology and uranium to China. Scotland received a pair of pandas in 2011 as part of an agreement to share offshore drilling technology and supply salmon to China. In 2013, the Netherlands received pandas as they agreed to provide advanced medical services.

To attract attention and as a means of leverage, the CCP now requires foreign heads of state to personally request pandas before deciding whether to lease them.

The CCP has also been recalling pandas as a punitive tool. In 2010, two days after Beijing warned President Obama not to meet the Dalai Lama, China called back the first batch of panda cubs born in the Atlanta Zoo and the Washington National Zoo. Amid the tensions over the U.S.-China trade war in 2019, Beijing retrieved pandas “Bai Yun” and her cub and “Little Gift” from the San Diego Zoo. This year, due to the Netherlands’ adherence to U.S. restrictions on the sale of advanced semiconductor processing equipment to China, Beijing recalled the three-year-old panda “Fan Xing” from a Dutch zoo.

Source: Epoch Times, October 10, 2023
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/23/10/10/n14091930.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend US-China Relations

Yunan University Military Training Performance: Students Act Out Police Suppression of Workers’ Protest

A recent video circulating online shows scenes from a military training performance at Chuxiong Normal University in Yunnan Province. In the video, students acted out how police might suppress workers who have not been paid and who are protesting for their salaries.

In the video, some students dressed as the “unpaid workers,” holding white pieces of paper displaying signs that read “Pay Our Debts.” Some workers at the fore wore black masks and rushed toward the “police,” also played by students. The police dressed in camouflage uniforms, using tear gas and other methods to disperse the workers. They then surrounded and violently restrained the workers, arresting and taking them away one by one.

The video has sparked widespread discussions among internet users. People commented that the CCP “does not treat people as people,” regarding even workers’ demands for unpaid wages as illegal. A report by the Epoch Times provided a footnote saying that China’s economy is worsening, so authorities may anticipate more incidents and clashes around workers’ unpaid salaries.

Source: Epoch Times, October 4, 2023
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/23/10/4/n14087686.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Social Stability

Chinese Continue Fishing in Sea of Japan Despite Beijing’s High-Profile Protest of Japan’s Nuclear Wastewater

Beijing has made a big deal of criticizing Japan for discharging treated and diluted wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear power plant. China has also announced a comprehensive ban on importing Japanese seafood.

However, Japanese media The Asahi Shimbun reported that Chinese fishing vessels continue to operate near Japanese waters and that there has been no significant drop in the total count of such boats. The report said that on September 19, 162 Chinese fishing vessels were observed operating approximately 1,000 kilometers east of Nemuro City in Hokkaido, Japan. From early August to September 19, there were 146 to 167 Chinese fishing vessels each day, fishing for saury, mackerel, and sardines in the North Pacific waters off Hokkaido, alongside Japanese fishing vessels.

Source: Radio Free Asia, September 26, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/cantonese/news/jp-fish-09262023014559.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend

Miles Yu: Xi Jinping Misjudges U.S. Politics in Making Abstract Demands of Biden

In July’s episode of the “China Insider” podcast hosted by Miles Yu, who served as principal China policy and planning adviser under former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Yu talked about how Xi Jinping misjudged U.S.-China relations this year. According to Yu, Xi’s main concern has not been specific U.S. policies but rather how U.S. political ideology might influence the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) regime. Xi wished to secure a series of commitments from U.S. leadership, but what Xi asked for was not easy for the U.S. to carry out concretely. Thus Xi’s perceived stumbling blocks in U.S.-China relations have not been addressed.

In a March 2023 phone call, Biden agreed to several abstract requests made by Xi, including commitments regarding U.S. geopolitical influence over China and Taiwan. Biden’s administration has not followed up with concrete actions, however. Yu points out that Xi operates within communist China’s authoritarian and dictatorial model, so he has been unable to understand why his demands are unrealistic from the perspective of the U.S. model of government.

Yu said that Xi made several strong demands of Biden during their phone call in March.

  • First, Xi hoped that the U.S. government would clearly state that it does not seek “regime change” in China. Biden thought for a moment and gave a commitment on that.
  • Second, Xi demanded that the Biden government assure China that it won’t organize “anti-China alliances.” Biden thought about this request and said that the U.S. has a strong alliance system worldwide, but there is no alliance system specifically targeting a particular country. So Biden agreed to this request by Xi.
  • Third, Xi Jinping asked Biden to promise not to support Taiwan independence. Biden agreed.

Following the phone call, Xi believed that he had secured some fundamental ideological commitments from the U.S. government. The Biden administration, on the other hand, felt that Xi’s demands were abstract and unrealistic (hard or impossible to implement) — this is why Biden was willing to agree to them.

After the phone call, the U.S. government didn’t take any concrete measures based on Xi’s demands — they couldn’t be implemented. China has been complaining that President Biden has not kept his promises and hasn’t taken concrete actions. Under pressure from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the Biden administration sent cabinet-level members to China to visit, hoping to implement some measures from the March phone call. However, these officials (including Antony Blinken, Janet Yellen, and John Kerry) focused on specific, practical matters and did not address the larger strategic issues that were irking Xi. Indeed, in Yu’s assessment, Xi and the CCP have a misguided understanding about how the U.S. political system works — despite a series of cabinet-level visits to China, Xi’s demands couldn’t be addressed.

Source: Hudson Institute Website, July 28, 2023
https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/zhongguoneimu

Briefings | | |   @CS US-China Relations

CCP Begins Brainwashing Hong Kong Students

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has a history of effectively indoctrinating people, starting from kindergarten. This practice is now extending to Hong Kong’s students.

In June of this year, all freshman-year students of Hong Kong’s Pui Kiu Middle School wrote a letter to Xi Jinping. In his response, Xi encouraged these students “to gain a deeper understanding of global developments and to explore the history, culture, and realities of our country.” The Hong Kong education sector took this letter as a “sacred message” and reacted by implementing various “learning sessions.”

Reports have emerged suggesting that the Hong Kong government is considering a mandate that would require all Hong Kong primary and secondary school students to visit “holy” sites of the communist revolution in China so as to instill “the communist spirit” in the youth.

Hong Kong’s students were at the forefront of resistance against the CCP during the 2019-2020 anti-extradition protests. The CCP is now actively working to mold Hongkongese youth into conforming supporters of the regime.

Source: Newtalk, September 18, 2023
https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2023-09-18/888818

Briefings | | |   @CS Government/Politics

Xi Jinping Urges Secretaries to Increase Their Political Alignment

High-level CCP official Cai Qi delivered a message from Xi Jinping in a speech to China’s National Conference of Secretaries for Party Committees and Government Offices, urging the secretaries present to increase their political alignment with the CCP’s Central Committee. Cai Qi is a member of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Politburo Standing Committee and the Director of the General Office of the CCP Central Committee. The National Conference convened in Beijing on September 13th and 14th.

The speech emphasized the need for a “new atmosphere” and working approach within the general offices of Party committees and government bodies. Such committees and bodies are typically run by secretaries supporting top officials. Xi’s message urged these secretaries to “enhance their political alignment, uphold the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, broaden their perspective to encompass the nation’s broader objectives, deepen the development of political institutions, steadfastly uphold the centralized and unified leadership of the Party Central Committee, and consistently align their ideology, politics, and actions with the Party Central Committee.”

{Editor’s Note: There have been rumors that the arrest of Li Yuchao, the former Commander of the Chinese Military’s Rocketry Division, was triggered by a report from his secretary, and that Li Yuchao privately disagreed with Xi Jinping’s plan to take Taiwan by military force. If the rumors are true, the incident with Li Yuchao’s secretary may have motivated Xi’s message to the secretary conference, encouraging secretaries to be loyal to Xi and the CCP’s Central Committee rather than to the officials they serve.}

Source: People’s Daily, September 15, 2023
http://ztjy.people.cn/BIG5/n1/2023/0915/c457340-40078335.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Government/Politics

PLA Officer Advocates Preemptive Strikes Against U.S. in Event of War

Li Li (李莉), a prominent military commentator and esteemed professor at China’s National Defense University, recently made a bold assertion during a televised discussion. In contemplating the prospect of armed conflict, Li recommended that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) consider a proactive “preemptive” approach, targeting U.S. military installations in Japan as a primary strategic objective.

Li’s perspective can be summarized as follows: “In the event of war, our foremost imperative is to preemptively neutralize U.S. military bases situated in Japan.” In her discourse, Li used the term “American imperialism” to refer to the United States and emphasized that “we will not hesitate like Russia did”. She firmly asserted that “only decisive and swift counteraction can guarantee our nation’s survival and sustained progress. We shall not delay in neutralizing U.S. ‘black’ aircraft carriers and ‘black’ bombers. We shall seize the earliest opportunity to take actions and leave the enemy no chance to breathe.”

Source: Aboluo, September 8, 2023
https://www.aboluowang.com/2023/0908/1951318.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Defense/Military US-China Relations

Huanqiu: Ministry of State Security Commented on the U.S.’ Policies Towards China

Huanqiu published an unexpected commentary by the Ministry of State Security concerning the United States’ policies towards China. Typically, such remarks emanate from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The commentary asserts that while the U.S. has shifted its strategy from the “old two approaches” to the “new two approaches” and claims that it is doomed for failure.

The core excerpt from the commentary reads as follows:

In previous decades, the U.S. adhered to the “old two approaches” regarding China, characterized as “Contact + Containment.” This approach entailed on one hand, engaging China within the international system and fostering cooperation, while concurrently executing covert infiltration and containment strategies against China. This dual-handed approach intricately shaped the complexity that has historically marked Sino-U.S. relations.

In the contemporary geopolitical landscape, the rivalry between the two global powers, the United States and China, has unequivocally become the prevailing theme in international politics. Consequently, Sino-U.S. relations have entered a novel phase, with the U.S. unveiling its “Competition + Control Competition” strategy.

The crux of this strategy lies in “Competition,” constituting the primary thrust of the U.S. approach. It encompasses economic decoupling, political coalition-building, security deterrence, information warfare, and norm/rule setting endeavors. Both the Trump and Biden administrations have been steadfast and increasingly assertive in their pursuit of this approach. Looking ahead, the U.S. may well implement even more formidable “competition” measures, with many yet unseen.

Simultaneously, the U.S. has adopted a discernible “Control Competition” tactic. While “Competition” seeks to stymie China, “Control Competition” seeks to manage this suppression without permitting it to spiral out of control. The Biden administration has repeatedly referenced concepts like “guardrails,” “thresholds,” and “parameters,” transitioning from the notion of “decoupling” to “de-risking,” and vocally committing to the “Four No’s and One Unintentional.” All these actions are aimed at maintaining control over the competitive dynamics. “Competition” constitutes a strategic move, whereas “Controlling Competition” is more tactical and serves as a complementary aspect of the overall competitive strategy.

This shift in strategy reflects three underlying objectives of the U.S. government:

  • Dissemination of Ambiguous Signals: By releasing “mixed signals,” the U.S. aims to obfuscate its intentions and make it challenging for its opponent (China) to decipher and evaluate its actions—a fundamental tactic reminiscent of the Cold War era.
  • Mitigating Overreactions: The U.S. endeavors to forestall any excessive reactions from its opponent by exhibiting “self-restraint,” a strategy that has a historical precedent in the annals of great power politics over the past few centuries.
  • Expanding Channels of Influence: The U.S. seeks to create a “dialog window” to augment avenues for influence, thereby fostering limited cooperation with its opponent.

Source: Huanqiu, September 3, 2023
https://world.huanqiu.com/article/4EOkEEy2R3N

Briefings | | |   @CS US-China Relations