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Chinese Middle Class Flocks to Thai Property Amid Economic Pessimism

Recent data show that Chinese buyers were the largest foreign buyers of property in Thailand last year. Analysts suggest that Thailand’s visa-free policy for Chinese tourists and the lack of anti-Chinese sentiment in the country attracted China’s middle class to invest in Thai property. The phenomenon also reflects public pessimism about China’s economic prospects.

Eric, a resident of Fujian, spent around $276,000 to buy two Bangkok apartments for personal use and investment, seeing the Thai properties as a potential stopover for overseas migration if China’s economy worsens.

Statistics show that Chinese buyers purchased 6,614 Thai apartments worth $927 million last year, nearly 46% of total sales, boosting local demand above pre-pandemic levels. Property managers confirm the influx of Chinese buyers.

While foreign ownership in Thailand is capped at 49% and buying doesn’t lead to citizenship, the visa-free policy and lack of anti-Chinese sentiment are positives for Chinese buyers, according to real estate professionals.

Analysts suggest that the present Chinese capital inflow could boost Thailand’s economy and that it reflects public pessimism about China’s prospects. Some cite the competitive “inner circularity” [of China’s economy] and economic gloom as reasons for the exodus of middle class capital.

Hangzhou and Xi’an recently announced the complete removal of housing purchase restrictions, allowing purchases without eligibility checks. Some view this as a “desperate move” by China to prop up the real estate industry. Despite 29 cities lifting purchase restrictions since early last year, the recovery in China’s property market still seems slow, with current inventory potentially taking 5 years to digest if the present pace of sales continues.

Source: Voice of America, May 13, 2024
https://www.voachinese.com/a/chinese-buyers-flock-to-thailand-to-hedge-domestic-property-slump/7608611.html

Trade Volume of 2024 Canton Fair Beats 2023 but is Lower Than 2019 Volume

The 135th Canton Fair (2024 Spring Canton Fair) was held in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, from April 15th to May 5th. The onsite (i.e. non-online) export transactions amounted to $24.7 billion, while online export transactions reached $3.03 billion, totaling $27.7 billion. A total of 246,000 overseas buyers from 215 countries and regions visited the site.

The total export transactions in 2023, including online and on-site, were $25.11 billion. In 2019 (before the COVID pandemic) the total reached $29.73 billion.

Sources:
1. Xinhua, May 5, 2024
http://www.xinhuanet.com/fortune/20240505/5ccabf0fa93840109af17873b9a75eb8/c.html
2. Radio Free Asia, May 8, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/hcm-05082023090035.html

China Expands Identification and Monitoring of Low-Income Population to Promote Stability

There are at least 66 million low-income people living in China. Concerned about social stability, China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs recently ordered local governments to strengthen the identification and monitoring of low-income populations. The order’s aim is to better play the role of social assistance in “ensuring basics, preventing risks, and promoting development”, weaving a tighter safety net for people’s livelihoods and helping them out of poverty.

Chinese authorities are calling for poverty alleviation to stabilize society. In October 2023, the Ministry of Civil Affairs stated that the national dynamic monitoring information platform for low-income populations had collected basic information on over 66 million low-income people, about 4.7% of the total population. This includes nearly 40 million people receiving minimum living allowances, over 4.6 million living in extreme poverty, and over 6 million members of households that are just above the poverty line.

According to Chinese media reports, the Ministry of Civil Affairs recently issued a notice identifying low-income groups. Households with per capita incomes below 1.5 times the local minimum living standard and assets meeting local regulations are classified as being at the minimum living standard boundary. Households with per capita incomes below the previous year’s local disposable income level, assets meeting regulations, and necessary expenditures like medical and education exceeding a certain proportion of total income are classified as having difficulty with rigid expenditures.

The new order from the Ministry of Civil Affairs requires localities to comprehensively identify minimum living standard boundary households and rigid expenditure difficulty households, in addition to identifying recipients of minimum living allowances and those living in extremely poverty.

On strengthening the monitoring of low-income populations, the goal of “risk prevention” requires gradually expanding the scope of monitoring efforts to include other “difficult people” identified by local governments and other potential low-income groups, incorporating them, too, into the dynamic monitoring platform with stratified management.

The government stressed the importance of making the public aware of how monitoring helps prevent risks and alleviate difficulties. “It aims to leverage grassroots party organizations to guide employable low-income people towards self-reliance, employment assistance, and industrial aid to escape poverty.”

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), May 5, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202405050193.aspx

Sluggish Consumption During China’s May Day Holiday

During the 5-day May Day holiday in China, consumption appeared to be sluggish. While the number of domestic tourists increased by 7.6% compared to the same period last year, the average spending per tourist was relatively low, at 113 yuan ($16.5) per day, lower than the 151 yuan in 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic.

A report by economist Zhong Zhengsheng analyzed consumption during the holiday in three areas: domestic tourism, outbound tourism, and movie box office receipts. The report stated that the long holiday provides an important window into domestic demand in China.

Domestic tourism saw 295 million tourist trips and a total spending of 166.89 billion yuan, up 12.7% year-on-year. Adjusting for the shorter 4-day May Day holiday in 2019, however, tourist trips recovered to 128% of 2019 levels, but average spending per tourist was only 88.5% of 2019.

For outbound tourism, Chinese tourists going to Singapore, Japan, Thailand, the U.S., South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, Australia, Myanmar and Indonesia accounted for 60.7% of all outbound travelers.

China’s movie box office revenue was 1.5267 billion yuan during the holiday, up 0.4% from last year but only 91.4% of the 2019 daily average when adjusted for the shorter holiday that year.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), May 7, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202405070308.aspx

LTN: China’s Top Brokerage Slashes Employee Salaries

Major Taiwanese news network Liberty Times Network (LTN) recently reported that CICC (China International Capital Corporation), the leading firm in China’s securities industry, is cutting the base salary of investment banking employees by up to 25 percent. This move is expected to affect more than 2,000 employees. In addition, CICC is also considering cutting headcount in Hong Kong’s offshore investment banking department. The market believes this reflects a weak IPO market in China and Hong Kong, with investment banking operations under tremendous pressure.

CICC is China’s largest investment bank. Last year, it cut employee bonuses by as much as 40 percent in response to Beijing’s call for “common prosperity.” Now, only a year later, CICC is cutting salaries by another quarter. CICC’s largest Chinese competitor, CITIC Securities, has also reportedly lowered the salary of its investment banking department, cutting base salaries by 15 percent, with some employees seeing cuts of up to 20 percent. According to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), funds raised by Chinese companies through initial public offerings (IPOs) fell sharply by 80 percent year-over-year in the first quarter of this year.

Source: LTN, April 29, 2024
https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/4656258

Chinese Media: China’s Low-Altitude Flight Sector as an Engine of Economic Growth

Recently, Chinese media have frequently talked about the new “low-altitude sector” becoming a new growth engine for China’s economy. The term “low altitude” refers to low-altitude flight technology, including drones and electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOLs). The following is a combined summary of two reports, by Xinhua and People’s Daily, respectively.

The low-altitude economy is a typical representative of new productive forces [within the Chinese economy]. This year, the “low-altitude economy” was mentioned in the central government’s work report. It will definitely reach a trillion-yuan-level (US $140 billion) industrial scale.

The low-altitude economy can use drones in many applications. These include “dropping take-out food from the sky,” sowing and fertilizing farmland, and delivering goods to the mountains. Electric Take-off and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft is one of the hottest fields. A 5-seat eVTOL recently conducted a flight from Shenzhen to Zhuhai crossing over both land and sea … reducing travel time [between the two cities] from 2 hours on the ground to 20 minutes in the air.

Many Chinese cities are building up their low-altitude economies. In April of this year Harbin City officially began construction of its large-scale industrial park for production of unmanned helicopters. The city will build a large-scale unmanned helicopter research institute, a “conversion base” for transforming manned aircraft into unmanned aircraft, and an unmanned aircraft production base. The city’s new facilities are expected to achieve an annual output value of 1 billion yuan, with the surrounding ecosystem producing 5 billion yuan of output value.

Since the beginning of this year, Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, has seen 251 new low-altitude economic projects started, with a total planned investment of over 73 billion yuan. Hefei, Anhui Province, has proposed to build an eVTOL integrated manufacturing plant. Anhui Province will build a low-altitude Flight Service Platform that integrates functions such as flight monitoring, airspace management, flight planning, navigation information, meteorological information, data management, and statistical analysis. Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, has 30 drone-related companies, covering parts of the industrial chain such as R&D, manufacturing, training, examination, operation service, and industry applications. Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, is host to several well-known domestic eVTOL manufacturers.

According to data released by the Civil Aviation Administration, as of the end of 2023, China had more than 1.26 million drones, a 32 percent increase from the previous year. In 2023, civilian drones accumulated more than 23 million flight hours. The “China Low-altitude Economy Development White Paper (2024),” recently released by the Smart Equipment Industry Research Center of CCID Consulting, shows that China’s civilian drone industry reached 117.43 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 32 percent. According to the paper, the eVTOL industry will see its first cycle of breakthrough commercialization in 2024, with the industry reaching a scale of 9.5 billion yuan by 2026 [in sales].

Sources:
1. Xinhua, April 28, 2024
http://www.news.cn/20240428/2323db6402404ec2b408888a74b17ea8/c.html
2. People’s Daily, May 5, 2025
http://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0505/c1004-40229081.html

People’s Daily: First China-Laos-Thailand-Malaysia Rapid Freight Train Begins Operation

On April 30, the first “China-Laos-Thailand-Malaysia” all-rail rapid freight train departed from Chengdu International Railway Port in Sichuan Province, headed for Port Klang, Malaysia. The rail system expanded to Malaysia six months after the debut of the first “China-Laos-Thailand” all-rail rapid freight train.

The train started from Chengdu, passed through Vientiane, Laos and Nong Khai, Thailand, and then arrived at Port Klang, Malaysia. This route can ship goods from Chengdu to Thailand within 5 days and to Malaysia within 8 days, saving half of the time compared with the traditional land-sea combo route. It is expected to save about 20% of transportation costs. Moreover, the all-railway transportation process is more stable [than the alternative land-sea route].

Source: People’s Daily, May 2, 2024
http://sc.people.com.cn/n2/2024/0502/c379471-40831943.html

China’s Three Major Airlines Sign Contract to Buy Chinese-Made C919 Planes

China is building and promoting a domestically-manufactured commercial airplane, the C919.

On April 29, 2024, China Southern Airlines signed a purchase agreement with Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) to buy 100 C919 aircraft, with deliveries scheduled from 2024 to 2031. Air China signed an agreement on April 26, 2024 for 100 C919 aircraft, with deliveries also scheduled from 2024 to 2031. China Eastern Airlines was the first airline to order C919 planes. It placed an order for 5 aircraft in 2021 and another order for 100 aircraft in September 2023.

Source: Xinhua, May 1, 2024
http://www.news.cn/20240501/94f7e635c5ef4f2eadd721536911f9e2/c.html