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Caixin: China’s February Manufacturing PMI Continued to Decline

Well-known Chinese financial site Caixin recently released its official Chinese Manufacturing PMI index number for February 2016, at 48.0, which is lower than January. Caixin PMI was formerly known as HSBC PMI, which was a well-respected economic indicator that financial institutions monitored globally. The February manufacturing PMI is now at the lowest point in five months. The index showed a decline in both manufacturing output and new orders. New export orders have been declining for three months. Most manufacturers expressed the belief that the domestic market is very weak. The February unemployment sub-index in manufacturing reached the lowest point since January 2009. In the meantime, the Chinese manufacturing PMI number that the National Bureau of Statistics reported reflected the same situation, at 49.0, which was the lowest since December 2011. PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is an indicator of financial activity reflecting the purchasing managers’ acquisition of goods and services. A PMI number below 50 typically reflects a decline. 
Source: Caixin, March 1, 2016
http://pmi.caixin.com/2016-03-01/100914282.html

VOA-: China to Increase 2016 Financial Deficit

VOA published an article which stated that, based on the financial data that China disclosed, the growth rate of its 2016 GDP will remain between 6.5 and 7 percent and its finance deficit will grow from 1.62 trillion (US$0.25 trillion) in 2015 to 2.18 trillion (US$0.33 trillion) in 2016; its local treasury bonds are expected to be 400 billion yuan (US$61 billion). The article said that the Chinese government admits that its economy will face a bottleneck which it must break through to succeed. It also said that, according to the statistics, the Chinese government plans to allocate 16 billion yuan (US$2.45 billion) to urban medical assistance funds, an increase of 10 percent from 2015. It also claimed that it will increase the low income supplement fund by 5 percent for urban and 8 percent for the rural region.

Source: VOA, March 6, 2016
http://www.voachinese.com/content/china-economy-20160306/3221705.html

China Will Cut 1.8 Million Jobs in the Steel and Coal Industries

Yin Weimin, Minister of Human Resources and Social Security, stated in a press conference on February 29, that China will cut 1.3 million jobs in the coal industry and a half million jobs in the steel industry, to solve the over capacity problem in these two industries.

According to Radio Free Asia, the State Council proposed, in January, to reduce crude steel production by 100 to 150 million tons, on top of the already planned elimination of 90 million tons of steel produced from old technology, over the next few years.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) recommended that 4,300 coal mines be closed and 700 million tons of coal production be cut over the next three years.

"Experts anticipate that, over the next two to three years, if such industries as steel, coal mining, cement, ship building, aluminum, and plate glass, which are severely over-capacity, cut their production by 30 percent, China will lose at least 3 million jobs."

Source: Radio Free Asia, March 1, 2016
http://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/ql2-03012016105153.html

Hexun: Four Groups of People May Face Unemployment in 2016

The Hexun website published an article that discussed a recent job market report that the China Institute for Employment Research had published. Based on the report, the following four groups of people will face challenges in 2016: 

1) Industries that are facing excessive cuts in industrial capacity. This includes, but is not limited to the steel, coal mining, and cement industries. The article said that in the next 2 to 3 years, one million workers from the steel and coal mine industries will lose their jobs. 
2) College Graduates. According to the article, there will be a record high of 7.65 million students graduating from college in 2016, an increase of 160,000 from 2015. Estimates suggest that the number of college graduates competing in the job market may be close to 10 million, particularly if it includes 300,000 Haigui (Chinese people who have returned to mainland China after having studied abroad) as well as those who graduated in prior years but have been unable to find employment. The article noted that, if the college graduates are not willing to take a low paying blue collar job, many of them will continue struggling to find a job. However if they are willing to relocate to the central part of China more opportunities will be available for the college graduates in those regions. 
3) Peasant Workers. Because of the cutbacks in the manufacturing industry on the east coast and the contraction in construction industry, many peasant workers will face unemployment. However since there will be job increase in transportation and the trucking industry, some of the peasant workers may see opportunities in those fields. 
4) Retail Store Workers. In the fourth quarter of 2015, online and e-commerce grew 52 percent compared to the same period in 2014. It has affected the profitability in the retail market. As more and more stores are closing, the workers in the retail industry will suffer as well.

The article concluded that there are still many unknown situations in the 2016 job market but as manufacturing and heavy industry will take cuts, the service industry will continue to see growth.

Source: Hexun, Feb 5, 2016
http://m.hexun.com/opinion/2016-02-05/182194858.html

BBC Chinese: Chinese Import/Export Volume Dropped Sharply in January

BBC Chinese recently reported that, based on data released by the Chinese General Administration of Customs, China’s January total import/export volume was RMB 1.88 trillion (around US$289 billion). The number represents a decline of 9.8 percent, year-over-year. January exports declined by 6.6 percent and the import volume declined by 14.4 percent, year-over-year. Compared to December 2015, the January import/export total declined by 23.9 percent, month-over-month, which included an export decline of 19.8 percent and an import decline of 29.6 percent, month-over-month. Data analysis further showed that, in January, the total trade volume between China and its largest trade partner, the European Union, declined by 9.9 percent. The total trade volume between China and the United States also declined by 9.9 percent. China’s exports of mechanical and electrical products as well as textiles and clothing are the biggest categories that suffered the declines. 
Source: BBC Chinese, February 15, 2016
http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/business/2016/02/160215_china_trade_january

Guangming Daily: Six Million Chinese Tourists Travelled Overseas during Chinese New Year Holiday

According to a report carried by Guangming Daily, an estimated 5.7 million to 6 million Chinese tourists will be traveling overseas during the recent Chinese New Year holiday break. Estimates suggest that the total spending for these tourists will reach 90 billion yuan (US$13.8 billion); most of the money will be spent on shopping. The article said that 157,000 Chinese tourists went to Korea this year, up 18.7 percent over the prior year. Most of the money they spent was for Korean made brand name cosmetic products and food. France and Thailand are also among the countries that the Chinese tourists highly favor.

Source: Guangming Daily, February 22, 2016
http://economy.gmw.cn/2016-02/22/content_18976013.htm

What Worries China’s Middle Class?

The Paper published a commentary on the worries that China’s middle class faces:

Career: China’s economic turmoil and the restructuring of its industries mean that many mid to high level managers face the risk of losing their jobs. The Internet technology has also impacted almost all industries.

Family assets: The main assets for a middle class family are their home, investments in the stock market, and cash. The housing market and stock market are volatile.

Education for their children: Many in the middle class studied very hard to achieve their status. The family experiences desperation when their children do not receive good grades.

There are also worries over medical insurance, retirement funds, and other matters.

Source: The Paper Online, February 12, 2016
http://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_1430325

The Paper: Why the Price of a Bride Keeps Rising

The Paper published an analysis report on the purchase of brides in China’s villages. Chinese, especially peasants, prefer sons to daughters. Because of China’s "one-child" policy over the past few decades, this view has contributed to a higher proportion of males than females in China.

"The development of a nationwide marriage market has resulted in an outflow of females from Western and Central China [because they are able to marry in Eastern China which is more developed economically]. The imbalance between males to females means that, for the groom, the cost of getting married has continued to rise."

"Nowadays, a girl’s preference for a husband is someone who is the only child in the family, has money, and has relatively young parents. In that case, her in-laws can continue to work and pass their earnings on to their only son [and, of course, the girl as well]. They can also provide free babysitting services for the young couple’s baby."

Source: The Paper Online, February 12, 2016
http://www.thepaper.cn/baidu.jsp?contid=1431178