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Qiushi: The Chinese Economy Faces Three Major Risks

According to the periodical Qiushi, China’s economy faces three major risks. Therefore, it is important for China to “guard against deflation, the flight of venture capital, and debt default. It must prevent them from resonating together which would amplify their negative impact on the economy.” 

Regarding the risk of deflation, there is pressure on the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index to decline. The growth of the money supply is slowing down. Economic growth is also lower due to a lack of demand, with GDP growth at 7.4 percent in the first quarter of this year. 
The risk of capital flight is increasing as evident from RMB depreciation. The trade deficit and the funds outstanding for foreign exchange are growing. If economic growth continues to slow down, capital flight will accelerate, thus putting more pressure on the RMB to depreciate, which in turn will adversely impact the real estate market, the foreign exchange market, and the financial market. 
Debt default may continue in the construction, real estate, and mining industries. As more caution is exercised in providing loans and credit, market interest rates will move up, leading to a further contraction of the economy. 
Source: Qiushi, April 23, 2014 
http://www.qstheory.cn/jj/xrsd/201404/t20140423_342974.htm

Qiushi on the Chinese Economy: Have Confidence, Patience and Determination

Qiushi published a commentary on the Chinese economy titled, “Have Confidence, Patience and Determination.” 

“First, [we should] establish confidence and let the public know that the current economy is still running in the normal range, that the trend is still smooth, and that they should not be too worried. This will stabilize everyone’s expectations. Second, [we should have] patience. It takes time to resolve excess capacity, to introduce, implement, and achieve the results of the policy of reform and to cultivate new economic growth. Therefore [we should] not be in a hurry. Being in a hurry can easily lead us to re-taking the old road. Third, [we must] have the determination to  push reform forward unswervingly, to strengthen the propaganda about the effective reforms already made, and to sum up and promote successful reform experience, boost reform morale, and stand in solidarity to make breakthroughs, all in a timely manner.” 
The commentary compares the Chinese economy to "a person who is basically healthy, but with ying and yang out of balance, and with some bad habits and illnesses. The person is now right in the critical period of the treatment and reactions may be severe, but one must bite his teeth and tough it out. After the “treatment” in this stage, the Chinese economy will see healthy growth.” 
Source: Qiushi, April 21, 2014 
http://www.qstheory.cn/wz/shp/201404/t20140421_342012.htm

Wal-Mart China Complained about the Food Safety Issue

Well-known Chinese news site Sohu recently reported that the top management at Wal-Mart China met recently with officials from the China Food and Drug Administration (CFDA). The management called for the scope of government monitoring of food labeling to be extended. Currently the CFDA only regulates retailers on food labeling but not manufacturers. In the past few years, a number of retailers have run into trouble because they were held responsible for the unsafe food that suppliers had provided. The best effort retailers can make for now is to ensure that the government correctly licenses these suppliers. The food quality is largely dependent on the supplier’s honesty. Retailers have been inspecting a certain number of samples of the food that the manufacturers supply, but this by no means covers the full range of the products they offer in stores. It is widely believed that end-to-end food safety control is required, especially on the source side, which includes suppliers. The cost for retailers to do a full-scale food inspection would be too high and unreasonable.

Source: Sohu.com, April 17, 2014
http://business.sohu.com/20140417/n398411268.shtml

BBC Chinese: One Fifth of China’s Arable Land Is Polluted

BBC Chinese reported that the Chinese Ministry of Environmental Protection recently released a research report which indicated that 16.1 percent of China’s land and 19.4 percent of China’s arable land are polluted. The scope of the research on which the report was based was sizeable, covering two thirds of all land in Mainland China. The research showed that the three heavy metals of cadmium, nickel, and arsenic are the primary pollutants in China’s soil. The Ministry said in an announcement that it is very hard to remain optimistic about the quality of China’s soil. Both the government and the Chinese people are worried about the irreparable damage brought about by China’s rapid industrialization process. The government is in the process of coming up with more comprehensive environmental protection laws. The research report also concluded that there are three primary heavy industry regions that have suffered the most severe damage from pollution. They are the Yangtze River Delta Area on the east coast, the Zhujiang Delta Area in the south, and the traditional heavy industry base in Northeastern China.

Source: BBC Chinese, April 18, 2014
http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/simp/science/2014/04/140418_china_soil_contaminated.shtml

In Spite of Concerns for “Ghost” Towns, Many Chinese Cities Plan for Massive Expansion

Prefecture-level cities are one level below the capital cities in China’s administrative hierarchy. In a government survey of 156 prefecture-level cities in 12 provinces, over 90 percent were planning for the development of new metropolitan districts. Additionally, the 12 provincial capital cities were planning for a total of 55 new districts. One city was found to be planning 13 new districts. At the same time, the planned areas of the new districts continue to increase in size. 
Experts have expressed concern for such a pace of "urbanization." One problem is the blind pursuit of large urban districts. In the same city, many features are being duplicated and the construction is redundant. There are also concerns about over-investment, potential bad debts, and more "ghost" towns.
Source: People’s Daily Online, April 20, 2014
http://politics.people.com.cn/n/2014/0420/c1001-24918782.html

China’s Imports and Exports Saw a Significant Decline in March

Well-known Chinese news website Sina recently reported on the newly released import/export numbers for March. While economists were expecting a four percent increase, this year’s export numbers suffered a decline of 6.6 percent when compared to last March. Imports suffered an 11.3 percent decline instead of the expected 2.4 percent increase. The first quarter total import/export volume reached US$966 billion, which represents a one percent decline compared to the first quarter of 2013. The first quarter trade surplus was US$16.7 billion, which showed a decrease of 59.7 percent from the first quarter of last year. HSBC economist Ma Xiaoping commented in a Wall Street Journal interview that both China’s domestic and international demands remain weak. China’s key trade partners are recovering slowly. Noticeably, there was a sharp decline of 33.3 percent for the trade volume between the Mainland and Hong Kong, which holds a 7.8 percent share of the entire volume of imports and exports.  
Source: Sina.com, April 10, 2014
http://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/fmnews/20140410/100118757147.shtml

Financial Trouble Looming as Demand for Coal Continues to Decline

According to Securities Daily, as a result of China’s economic downturn and the severe drop in the demand for coal, coal prices have continued to fall. This factor, along with an increase in coal imports, has resulted in a decline in the price of domestic coal and a serious excessive capacity. In Erdos, Inner Mongolia which is highly dependent on the development of coal resources, the daily sales of coal from some coal mines is less than one-tenth of the normal amount of sales. The slump in the coal industry is seriously affecting the revenue from real estate and hotels, as well as tax revenue. The tax revenue from one coal district declined from 200 million yuan per month to 20 million per month. 

The demand for coal has fallen drastically. With a few exceptions for several major steel mills, all the steel mills in Tangshang, Hebei Province are shutting down their production. All cement plants within 100 miles of Beijing are also closing down. 

Source: Securities Daily, April 10, 2014 
http://zqrb.ccstock.cn/html/2014-04/10/content_412087.htm

Sporting Goods Store Closures Continue with High Inventories

During the economic downturn in China, stores for sporting goods with brand names faced their second round of closures in two years. In 2013, six well-known brand name sporting goods closed over 3,000 of their stores; inventories reached 3.1 billion yuan in 2013. 

In 2013, Lining, Anta, Peak, 361 Degrees, China Dongxiang, and Xtep closed over 3,000 stores. 361 Degrees was hit the hardest with 783 closures. Xtep shut down 150 stores and was the least affected brand. Back in 2012, during the first round of closures, Lining and Peak alone closed over 1,000 stores.
The inventory for all six brands remained high, hitting 3.1 billion yuan in 2013: Lining (942 million), Anta (689 million), Peak (366 million), 361 Degrees (409 million), China Dongxiang (183 million) and Xtep (537 million). 
Sources: 
Sina.com, April 8, 2014 
http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/marketalerts/20140408/145518734884.shtml 
Tencent, April 8, 2014 
 http://finance.qq.com/a/20140408/014472.htm