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Qiushi on the Direction of China’s Economy

A recent Qiushi article discussed the direction of China’s economy. It stated that China should continue relying on development-based high economic growth to solve its problems.

The author argued that, with a per capita GDP of US$6,090, for the next ten years China should still rely on the high economic growth model in order to reach US$12,000. By then it will be able to join the ranks of developed countries.

He rebutted the idea of laying blame for China’s current economic and social problems, such as environmental pollution, an increasing gap in income distribution, an imbalance between urban and village development, an imbalance in regional development, and insufficient public services, on the rapid economic development in the past. Instead, the author argued that the problems that have occurred during economic development can only be solved in through the process of further development.

The author listed the following as the direction for economic development: expanding consumption by taking real estate and the automobile as the driving force; developing a third industry to absorb a large number of unemployed people; getting more farmers off the land to work in cities; building a system to encourage more innovation; and developing and improving capital markets.

Source: Qiushi, November 1, 2013
http://www.qstheory.cn/zxdk/2013/201321/201310/t20131030_284130.htm

China’s Central Bank: Real Estate and Local Government Debt Are Most Worrisome

On November 6, Xinhua reprinted an article from Beijing Youth Daily on the worries that China’s central bank faces. The bank stated that real estate and local government debt have become its most worrisome macroeconomic issues. 

In the Third Quarter Monetary Policy Report from the People’s Bank of China, China’s central bank warned that inflation is likely to increase during the fourth quarter because of rising labor and service costs and higher rents. 
The bank stated that China faces many risks and challenges in its economic operations. “The new strong growth momentum remains to be formed. The economy may experience de-leveraging and capacity reduction over a long period of time. There are major problems in the real estate sector and in local government debts. The structural adjustment and transformation of the development mode remain as arduous tasks.” 
Source: Beijing Youth Daily reprinted by Xinhua, November 6, 2013 
http://news.xinhuanet.com/house/bj/2013-11-06/c_118020614.htm

China News: Significant Bursts in China’s Housing Bubble

China News recently reported that China’s official top-level think tank acknowledged the fact that prices are plummeting in some areas of China’s housing market. Li Wei, Director of the State Council Development Research Center, reported at a conference that risks are escalating in the housing market. The bubbles are already bursting in tier-three and tier-four cities. [Editor’s note: tier-three and tier-four cities are typically mid-sized cities that are not the national or provincial capital.] The Research Center recently released a report on studies and statistics which demonstrated that the Chinese housing market shows the “highest uncertainty in today’s Chinese economy.” While top-tier cities still enjoy rising housing prices, more and more “ghost towns” [Editor’s note: These are newly developed towns that remain vacant because there are no real estate buyers.] are appearing in or near smaller cities, which is becoming a heavy burden to the financial system.
Source: China News, October 30, 2013
http://finance.chinanews.com/house/2013/10-30/5439880.shtml

China Exim Bank’s Paris Branch Officially Open

The Export and Import Bank of China’s branch in Paris, France officially opened for business on October 29. This is China Exim Bank’s first overseas business branch. More than 100 people, including French politicians, the financial and business community, as well as representatives from the EU mission attended the opening ceremony. The president of China Exim Bank, Li Ruogu, Chinese Embassy official Wu Xilin, and the Managing Director of the Invest in France Agency, Serge Boscher, jointly inaugurated the Paris branch.

Li Ruogu said that the Paris branch will offer China Exim Bank a financial service platform closer to the European market and customers and will provide a full range of more convenient specialized financial services for Sino-French and Sino-European companies. Wu Xilin said that, with China Exim Bank’s Paris branch, three Chinese banks now have a foothold in Paris. This indicates that China’s banks are paying increasing attention to Paris for its role of international financial center and are confident in the prospects for Sino-French economic and trade cooperation.

Boscher said that France hopes the trend of investment from China can be sustained and expanded. The establishment of China Exim Bank’s Paris branch indicates not only that one Chinese enterprise has entered the French market, but that more Chinese enterprises will be driven by its financial support to invest in France.

Source: Xinhua, October 30, 2013
http://news.xinhuanet.com/2013-10/30/c_117932206.htm

Scholar: Major Economic Problems in China

The economist Gao Liankui wrote a commentary that was published in Hexun on a book that Yang Guoying wrote on the current economic problems that China faces. The economic problems that Yang identified are internal inflation and deflation, investment issues, revenue from taxation, external financial risks, and Chinese enterprises going overseas. 

According to Yang, if deflation continues for a long time, a strong and negative cycle will likely form in which recession leads to serious deflation. This would seriously accelerate the economic recession even further. 
As for the excessive investments that local governments make, it is because of these governments’ credibility and their guarantee of highly transferable assets such as land that local governments have been able to increase their debts in spite of the central government’s prohibition. 
On the deficit that local governments’ excessive investments have caused, Yang also expressed concern that the negative cycle of the increase in the deficit and of economic growth have entered an extremely dangerous phase. 
Yang also noted that the obstacles that Chinese companies face when going overseas have changed from pressure from international competitors to resistance from governments in developed countries. It comes in the form of technical resistance, intellectual property rights resistance, and political resistance. 
Yang observed that from the experiences of several Chinese companies, the excessive use of financial instruments originally meant as a hedge against risks may actually bring further risks to China’s manufacturing. 
Source: Hexun.com, October 29, 2013 
http://opinion.hexun.com/2013-10-29/159161277.html

Wine Industry Sales Down 50 Percent; Some Inventories up 30 Percent

China Radio International republished an article, originally from Beijing Business Today, about China’s domestic wine market. The article reported that sales for China’s domestic wines were down 50 percent while the wine makers carried inventories that were as much as 30 percent higher than the previous year. Changyu Wine Company in Yantai, Shandong Province, one of the top wineries in China, had third quarter financial results showing that the company’s net profit had declined by 46.94 percent, the lowest in five years. The government, because of its use of public funding, maintains a hard grip on food and entertainment, which is one of the reasons that the domestic wine industry has suffered from low demand. Other factors include a pricing adjustment that imported wines made in order to stay competitive. In addition, consumers favor imported wines over domestic brands.

Source: China Radio International, October 25, 2013
http://gb.cri.cn/44571/2013/10/25/3005s4297565.htm

Chinese Newspaper Says Reports that Property Prices Will Collapse Are Not Credible

On October 21, 2013, Qilu Evening News (http://www.qlwb.com.cn/), the biggest official newspaper in Shandong Province in the People’s Republic of China, published an article commenting on reports that “Property Prices Will Collapse,” a message currently circulating on the Internet. According to this message, the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee has sent out an internal early warning that property prices in 15 cities, including Qingdao and Yantai in Shandong Province, will collapse. Most of the 15 cities are on the east coast of China.

The Qilu Evening News article challenged the credibility of the Internet message by listing a series of statistical data, including the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, which has shown a steady increase in property prices in China, particularly in Qingdao, Yantai, and on the east coast. 

Source: Qilu Evening News, October 21, 2013
http://epaper.qlwb.com.cn/qlwb/content/20131021/ArticelA15002FM.htm?jdfwkey=0quvp3

Xinhua: European Council Authorized Investment Agreement Negotiations

Xinhua recently reported that, on October 18, the European Council officially authorized the EU Commission to start negotiations with China on an Investment Agreement. The EU Commission announced later that the negotiations are expected to start at the China-EU Leadership Summit next month. The plan is to complete the negotiations in two and a half years. The Investment Agreement focuses on the mutual protection of market access and investments. The EU Commission announcement also mentioned that the trade volume between China and the EU is substantial. The daily business volume in goods and services has reached at least 1 billion Euros (US$1.37 billion). However the bilateral investment level is still very low. The EU direct investments in China are holding at only 2.1 percent of the EU’s total international investments. Chinese investments in EU shares are less than 1 percent of the total of all foreign investments that the EU has received. Those investments received from the United States are holding at 21 percent. 
Source: Xinhua, October 18, 2013
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2013-10/18/c_117782393.htm