Geo-Strategic Trend - 17. page

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported on data released by South Korea’s Ministry of Finance showing that South Korea’s 2023 new direct investment in China dropped by 78.1 percent year-over-year, falling to US$1.87 billion. This is the largest decline in South Korean direct investment in more than 30 years, and it is the first time since 1992 that China has failed to rank among South Korea’s top five destinations for investment. The manufacturing sector  led the decline in investment.

The declining numbers reflect China’s changing role in South Korea’s economy as Washington seeks to reduce Beijing’s influence on global supply chains. The United States is about to replace China as South Korea’s largest export destination, importing products ranging from semiconductors to automobiles. South Korean companies have extensive exposure to key sectors in the U.S. and have been seeking to increase investment there to take advantage of the United States’ market scale and  government subsidies.

According to statistics from the Korea International Trade Association, China’s imports from South Korea last year were US$162.5 billion, a sharp drop of 18.8 percent from the previous year. This led to a US$18 billion trade deficit between South Korea and China, the first trade deficit seen during the 31 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and South Korea.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, March 15, 2024
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/world/story20240315-3160390

At the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s press conference on March 25, a reporter asked: “According to reports, Paraguayan President Peña said on March 23 in a social media post that the 66 years of diplomatic relations between Paraguay and Taiwan have been ‘deep’ and ‘friendly.’ And this has not hindered Paraguay’s trade with China, as the country is still exporting soybeans to China. What is China’s comment on this?”

Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian stated that there is only one China in the world, Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory, and the government of the People’s Republic of China is the sole legitimate government representing all of China. “China is the world’s top soybean importer. According to official Chinese statistics, China has imported zero soybeans from Paraguay in recent years. If the Paraguayan government truly wants to work for the development of the country and the wellbeing of its people, it should see the big picture and choose to stand on the right side of history, instead of putting its mind on ‘playing smart’ and ‘exploiting loopholes.'”

Source: Xinhua, March 25, 2024
http://www.news.cn/world/20240325/8d6027121dd741cf92f016423ca23259/c.html

According to a report in German newspaper Handelsblatt, German investors are avoiding China, and German direct investment in China has declined sharply. Some large companies, however, are going against the tide, expanding their businesses in China.

A study commissioned by Handelsblatt and conducted by the Cologne Institute for Economic Research shows that German investment flows to China plunged in the third quarter of 2023, reaching a six-year low of negative €2.2 billion. German equity investment in China fell particularly sharply, with a flow of negative €3.9 billion.

Funds flowing to China from other countries also decreased. During the third quarter of 2023, total foreign investment was negative for the first time in a quarter century, meaning more capital flowed out of China than flowed in. Some large companies like BASF, however, are going against the flow and continuing to expand their business in China.

On the other hand, there were positive signs regarding reinvested profits. Although German reinvestment in China was lower than during prior periods, German companies still reinvested some €1.7 billion of profits earned in China back into their Chinese operations in Q3 of 2023. The study found that many foreign companies operating in China are transferring profits out of the country.

Observers cite several reasons for the investment downturn in China, including a significantly worsened investment environment in recent years as the Communist Party exerts greater control over the economy. China’s economic growth and consumption have also slowed. Many Western countries are also pursuing de-risking strategies to reduce dependence on China.

Source: Radio France International, December 14, 2023
https://rfi.my/AB83

A report by IW Consult and Fraunhofer ISI, commissioned by KfW Research, highlights Germany’s reliance on imports for critical raw materials such as copper, lithium and rare earth elements (REEs). Nearly a third of Germany’s manufacturing gross value added comes from copper products, 10% from lithium products, and 22% from REE-containing products. Automakers, electronics and optics manufacturers are particularly reliant on imports.

The German markets for such products are dominated by a few major suppliers. The report says that a third of Germany’s lithium as well as 19% of its copper and REE imports are subject to supply chain risk. The largest known REE deposits are in China, while reserves in Greenland, Canada and Sweden remain underexplored. Germany’s top three lithium and REE suppliers control over 80% of German market share for those commodities. Furthermore, Russia’s copper and Chile’s lithium carbonate (which comprises 72% of German lithium carbonate imports) are crucial in Germany’s supply chain. Altogether, China accounts for 84% of German REE imports.

Matthias Wachter from the Federation of German Industries (BDI) compared Germany’s dependence on China for raw materials to the dependence on Russian natural gas [before the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine]. He said that imports have reached “the highest level of risk” and that the danger lies “not in availability of such materials but in the [geographic] concentration within China of their production.” He added, “this high degree of dependence makes people vulnerable to threats and blackmail. China has shown that it can regulate these key areas by imposing export controls on some rare earths.”

Fritzi Köhler-Geib, Chief Economist at KfW, said that there may be initial costs to pay in securing resilience throughout Germany’s supply chain, but the resulting stability and flexibility are necessary prerequisites for enabling the green transition and digital transformation. Cornelius Bähr, Senior Advisor at the German Economic Institute, stressed the importance of German supply chain diversification, exploration of substitutes for key raw materials, expansion of domestic resources, and recycling [of key supply chain inputs]. He cautioned that there could be economic consequences, e.g. forgone EV production, if imports such as lithium are disrupted.

Source: Deutsche Welle, March 17, 2024
https://p.dw.com/p/4dWaS