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China Detains Alleged MI6 Spy

China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) announced on Monday (January 8th) that the head of a foreign consulting firm, surnamed Huang, was found to be spying for the British foreign intelligence agency MI6. According to MSS, Huang was recruited by MI6 in 2015 and established an “intelligence cooperation relationship” with them.

MSS claims that MI6 instructed Huang to enter China several times using his identity as a cover to collect China-related intelligence and identify potential recruits for MI6. Huang allegedly provided his MI6 handlers with “9 classified-level state secrets, 5 secret-level state secrets, and 3 intelligence reports.”

MSS states that MI6 provided Huang with professional intelligence training in the UK and equipped him with special espionage gear to facilitate intelligence gathering in China. Chinese national security authorities allegedly uncovered evidence of Huang’s espionage and have taken him into criminal custody. No further details (besides the surname) were provided regarding Huang’s identity, current status, or location. The MSS announcement did not elaborate on Huang’s background, which consulting firm Huang was running, or who his MI6 handlers were.

Source: Deutsche Welle, January 8, 2024
https://p.dw.com/p/4ayJ9

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

The CCP’s Nine Modes of Interference in Taiwan’s Election

Taiwan will have its Presidential election on January 13. The Epoch Times listed nine modes of influence that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been exercising in attempts to force an election outcome favorable to Beijing.

  1. Xi Jinping and the CCP’s Taiwan Affairs Office have been making veiled threats of war, sending a message to Taiwanese voters. In Xi Jinping’s New Years address on December 26, 2023, Xi Jinping stated that the reunification of Taiwan is “a must” and “historically inevitable.” Chen Binhua, spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, referred to the presidential and vice-presidential candidates of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Mei-chin, as “war instigators.” At the same time, Chen expressed a willingness to cooperate with Hou Youyi, the presidential candidate from Taiwan’s Kuomintang (KMT) party. The CCP’s endorsement of Hou Youyi is clear.
  2. On January 9th, the CCP launched a satellite using the Long March 2C carrier rocket. The rocket flew over the southern end of Taiwan’s airspace. This served as a reminder to the Taiwanese people that the CCP’s rockets could be overhead at any moment.
  3. The Chinese military conducted maritime exercises in the East China Sea from January 8 to 9.
  4. Chinese military aircraft and warships persist in infringing upon Taiwan’s airspace and territorial waters.
  5. Chinese surveillance balloons over Taiwan – From December 7, 2023 to January 10, 2024, a total of 30 Chinese surveillance balloons flew over the median line of the Taiwan Strait or directly crossed into Taiwan’s airspace.
  6. Inviting Taiwanese politicians to visit mainland China – Liu Zhaoxuan, the former head of Taiwan’s Executive Yuan (the Taiwanese executive cabinet) during Ma Ying-jeou’s presidency, visited China and met with Wang Huning, a CCP Central Committee’s Politburo Standing Committee member. One day later, Ma Ying-jeou suggested that the KMT and the Taiwan People’s Party join forces and rally behind a single presidential candidate to beat the DPP. Vice Chairman Xia Liyan of the KMT visited mainland China on December 13, 2023; this was his fourth visit to the mainland since the summer of 2023. The CCP has also launched a campaign to invite Taiwan’s local officials and village heads to visit mainland China.
  7. Beijing has increased economic pressure on Taiwan, recently announcing increased import tariffs on several categories of Taiwanese goods.
  8. The CCP has provided campaign funds for favored Taiwanese politicians.
  9. The CCP has utilized online platforms to conduct cognitive warfare and disinformation warfare against Taiwan’s population. Techniques employed “integrate cyber, information, psychological and social engineering attack methods and can operate simultaneously with other physical means to influence the attitudes and behaviors of target individuals or groups to gain an advantage.”

Source: Epoch Times, January 10, 2024
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/24/1/10/n14155496.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend

Australian Court Delivers Landmark Verdict: CCP United Front Work Member Convicted of Foreign Interference

In November 2020, the Australian police charged former Liberal Party member Di Sanh “Sunny” Duong, also known as Yang Yisheng, with violating the “Foreign Interference Laws”: Duong was accused of preparing or planning foreign interference activities. On Tuesday, December 19, 2023, an Australian court ruled that the charges were substantiated. This marks the first such verdict under foreign interference laws enacted in 2018. Duong may face up to 10 years in prison.

According to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), prosecutors informed the court that Duong had maintained regular contact with Chinese intelligence agencies and attempted to influence then Federal Minister Alan Tudge to further the goals of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Born in Vietnam, Sunny Duong, 68 years old, is a well-known businessman in the Australian Chinese community. He serves as the chairman of the Oceania Cambodia Vietnam Chinese Association and holds various leadership positions in Chinese community organizations in the Australian state of Victoria. He is believed to be associated with the China Council for the Promotion of Peaceful National Reunification, which is controlled by the CCP’s United Front Work Department.

ABC’s report stated that prosecutor Patrick Doyle SC told the jury that Duong’s actions couldn’t be compared to the espionage seen in spy novels or 007 movies. He said that Duong’s actions were rather a “subtle form of interference,” emphasizing that the motivation was to gain influence [for the CCP].

A secret recording showed that Sunny Duong told a colleague, “What I do won’t be reported in the media, but Beijing knows what I’m doing.”

Source: Voice of America, December 19, 2023
https://www.voachinese.com/a/australia-court-finds-melbourne-man-guilty-of-foreign-interference-121923/7404075.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

CNA: The U.S. Became South Korea’s Largest Export Market

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that, in December 2023, South Korea’s exports to the United States exceeded its exports to China for the first time in 20 years.

Amid tensions over global economic security and technology supply chains, this is an important sign of changes in international relations. According to South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, South Korea’s December 2023 exports to the U.S. and to China were US$11.3 billion and US$10.9 billion, respectively. South Korea’s overall export volume increased at an annual rate of 5.1 percent. South Korea’s overall import value fell by 10.8 percent compared with the same period last year, and the trade surplus expanded to US$4.5 billion.

Although single-month data is not enough to prove that there has been a long-term shift in trading patterns, this change can still be taken as a reflection of the economic challenges facing China. In the meantime, the United States has been trying to win support from its allies to reduce global supply chain dependence on China and to limit Beijing’s access to advanced semiconductor technology. South Korea has forged closer ties with the United States under President Yoon Suk Yeol.

Source: CNA, January 1, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202401013004.aspx

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Xinhua: North Korea Claims South Korea Misjudged its Military Activity

Xinhua reported that Kim Yo Jong of North Korea has claimed that South Korea misjudged North Korea’s military movements. The following is a translation of the report.

According to the report from the Korean Central News Agency (North Korean media), Kim Yo Jong, Vice Chairman of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, made a statement on January 7, pointing out that South Korea has made a misjudgment and speculative assumptions about the movements of the North Korean military.

The report stated that South Korea claimed that North Korea fired shells northwest of Yonpyeong Island on the afternoon of January 6, and that the shells fell in the western sea area north of the “Northern Limit Line.” Kim Yo Jong of North Korean responded to this claim in the statement, saying that the North Korean military had in fact detonated explosives simulating the sound of coastal artillery. North Korea’s purpose was to observe South Korea’s reaction.

Kim Yo Jong said that South Korea mistook the explosive sound for artillery fire, took the sounds as provocative shelling, and falsely claimed that the impact point was in the sea buffer zone north of the “Northern Limit Line” in the western sea area.

Kim Yo Jong also warned that even if South Korea makes a small provocation, the North Korean military will immediately respond with “shelling.”

According to another report by Yonhap News Agency (South Korean media) on January 7, the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff dismissed Kim Yo Jong’s remarks as just “low-level psychological warfare” denigrating the detection capabilities of the South Korean military. He stated that if North Korea provokes South Korean territory and national security, the South Korean military will respond resolutely and decisively based on the principles of “immediate, strong, and thorough countermeasures.”

There have been persistent disagreements between the two Koreas over the demarcation of the western sea area of the Korean Peninsula. South Korea has delineated a maritime boundary called the “Northern Limit Line” between the “West Sea Five Islands,” including Yonpyeong Island, and the western coast of North Korea, which North Korea does not recognize.

Source: Xinhua, January 7, 2024
http://www.news.cn/world/20240107/8c243d2644a54e719a9956b811cdcfb4/c.html

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

Guangming Daily: China and Latin America’s Activities in 2023

Guangming Daily, a major mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP), reviewed the development in the relationships between China and Latin American countries in 2023:

In 2023 there were many high-level exchanges between China and Latin American countries. Leaders from ten countries paid visits to China: Brazil, Honduras, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela, Barbados, Suriname, Cuba, and Uruguay. President Xi Jinping met with the Presidents of Mexico and Peru in San Francisco, USA. China established diplomatic relations with Honduras, elevated bilateral relations with Venezuela to the status of “all-weather strategic partnership,” with Colombia and Nicaragua to “strategic partnerships,” and with Uruguay to “comprehensive strategic partnership.” China also deepened its cooperation with Cuba under the banner of “building a shared destiny.”

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held exchanges with Latin-American political parties. [Representatives of] many Latin-American political parties attended the high-level dialogue between the CCP and the world’s political parties in March, 2023; China and Cuba held their fifth communist theory conference in Beijing in April; and China held the third China-Latin America Poverty Reduction and Development Forum in July.

From January to October 2023, trade between China and Latin America reached 2.835 trillion yuan (US$ 390 billion), a 6 percent increase from the same period during the previous year. Chinese companies actively invested in Latin America, particularly in the fields of new energy and the digital economy. On May 11, China and Ecuador signed a free trade agreement. From May 30 to June 2, China and Peru held their fifth round of negotiations for the upgrade of the China-Peru Free Trade Agreement. On July 4, China and Honduras launched negotiations for a free trade agreement. On August 31, China signed a free trade agreement with Nicaragua, making Nicaragua China’s fifth free trade partner in the Latin American region. In addition, China initiated free trade agreement negotiations with El Salvador last year, and negotiations with Uruguay are also underway.

Honduras joined the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2023; it is the 22nd Latin American country in the BRI circle. Countries like Cuba, Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay signed specific cooperation plans with China. Latin American nations actively participated in the third BRI Cooperation Summit Forum, with the President of Chile attending the forum three times consecutively. By September 2023, China implemented over 200 infrastructure projects in Latin America, including roads, railways, light rails, schools, hospitals, sports venues, bridges, tunnels, airports, ports, and power facilities.

China and Latin American countries, all being developing nations, collaborated extensively in addressing international issues, global challenges, and promoting the reform of the global governance system. Close coordination between China and Brazil supported Argentina in joining the BRICS family (Editor’s Note: this article was written before Argentina officially announced that it would not join BRICS). Latin American countries actively supported the “Three Major Global Initiatives” (Editor’s Note: this refers to Xi Jinping’s Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative), with several countries joining the “Friends of the Global Development Initiative” group. China and Latin American countries actively consulted and reached broad consensus in addressing hot issues such as the Ukraine crisis and the Israel-Palestine conflict. China supported Brazil’s bid for the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2025, and advocated for the establishment of a “Climate Compensation Fund” for vulnerable economies in Latin America.

Source: Guangming Daily, December 26, 2023
https://news.gmw.cn/2023-12/26/content_37051988.htm

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

Xinhua Commentary: The Closer South Korea Is to NATO, The Further it is from Being Safe

Xinhua published a commentary on South Korea’s growing closer to the NATO alliance. It blamed NATO for “causing division and chaos” in the world. The follow are excerpts from the commentary:

In recent years, NATO has extended its reach into the Asia-Pacific, using tactics such as drumming up security anxiety to attract countries like South Korea and Japan, steadily increasing its power projection in the region.

Regarding the U.S.-led “shift of NATO into the Asia-Pacific,” the South Korean government appears to be compliant. NATO’s global disruptions, originating from the Cold War, are well-known. As a Cold War relic, NATO still adheres to zero-sum and confrontational thinking, constantly seeking geographical and operational expansion under U.S. leadership, repeatedly provoking martial conflicts.

Since the end of the Cold War, wherever NATO extends its influence, it causes division and chaos: bombing the Southern Alliance, launching the Afghanistan War in the name of “counterterrorism,” invading Iraq, bombing Libya, escalating the Ukraine crisis — all these have resulted in severe disasters for local populations.

As the world’s largest military organization, NATO fundamentally serves as a tool for U.S. hegemony. NATO’s aggressive expansion into the Asia-Pacific seeks to replicate its strategies of provocation and confrontation from Europe to the Asia-Pacific region, posing numerous harms without bringing any benefits. The South Korean government should recognize that continuously strengthening cooperation with NATO is akin to “inviting the wolf into the house.” NATO’s eastward expansion in the Asia-Pacific will only stir regional tensions, triggering confrontations or even a “new Cold War” or “new hot war.” This expansion goes against current trends, it reverses the course of history, and it is not in the interest of the people.

Source: Xinhua, January 3, 2024
http://www.news.cn/world/20240103/b2c6fe7f947542268f4d3d1d89a91f64/c.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

Beijing Postpones China-Japan-South Korea Summit so it can Focus on Taiwan’s Presidential Election

According to diplomatic sources cited by South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo, China has proposed postponing the upcoming China-Japan-South Korea Summit (previously scheduled for March 2024) as Beijing wants to prioritize monitoring Taiwan’s upcoming Presidential election (scheduled for January 13, 2024) and then focus on Taiwan-related issues during the following several months.

The last China-Japan-South Korea trilateral summit was held in Chengdu, China in 2019. Subsequent summits were canceled due to COVID. The three countries had planned to resume their trilateral summits in South Korea in 2023, but later decided to postpone until March 2024.

The meeting was expected to be attended by South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and Chinese Premier Li Qiang.

Source: Radio Taiwan International, December 31, 2023
https://www.rti.org.tw/news/view/id/2191394

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend