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CNA: New Development Bank Aims to Challenge Dollar Now Needs Dollar to Rescue

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that the New Development Bank jointly established by China and the BRICS is supposed to reshape international finance and reduce developing countries’ dependence on the U.S. dollar. However, after Russia invaded Ukraine, the bank may now become a “zombie bank.” Chinese President Xi Jinping and the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa established the New Development Bank (NDB) eight years ago, headquartered in Shanghai. According to interviews with bankers and others familiar with the matter, NDB has now all but stopped making new loans and is having trouble raising dollar funds to pay its debts. Shortly after Russia’s foray into Ukraine last February, the New Development Bank froze all new loans to Russia to reassure investors. However, Russia owns nearly 20 percent of NDB, and Wall Street was quick to turn wary of it. Since then, NDB has had to take on increasingly high debts to service old debts and meet its own liquidity needs. After the establishment of NDB, members found it difficult to rely solely on China’s banks and capital markets. The bank began borrowing billions of dollars from Wall Street as well as Chinese state-owned banks. About two-thirds of its borrowing is in dollars. Given its own slowing economic growth, China has so far been reluctant to commit more money to boost the NDB’s coffers. To complicate matters further, according to the bank’s charter, the next country likely to be the NDB’s rotating president is Russia.

Source: CNA, June 17, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202306170070.aspx

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

China’s Police Shared Experiences on Conducting Operations Overseas

Recently overseas media reported that Chinese police from Qingtian County, Zhejiang Province published their “successful” experiences in conducting operations in other countries. The article was published in the second issue of the Zhejiang Police College Publication in 2019.

There are 330,000 Chinese from Qingtian County who live in 128 foreign countries and regions. These diasporas have established 314 diasporas associations.

The police experience article talked about their work of combining “one concept, two overall plannings, three collaborations, four major mechanisms, and five areas of governance.”

“Two overall plannings” included the planning for domestic and overseas,words, two battlefields. Domestic planning – visit the relatives (inside China) of the overseas “stability maintenance” targets (usually the political activists/dissidents whom the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) views as a threat to its rule in China). Overseas planning – send working groups abroad to meet with the Chinese diasporas.

“Three collaborations”: One is to collaborate with Chinese embassies and consulates and  them to reach out to local Chinese diaspora groups. Two is to collaborate with the leaders of diaspora associations – Qingtian police has established regular collaborative mechanism with 230 Chinese diaspora associations and maintained regular contacts with 150 influential diaspora leaders. Three is to collaborate with the people who were the former police officers or relatives of former police officers.

The article also talked about strengthening the party’s leadership, including expanding the party organization’s reach to the overseas Chinese diaspora associations and establishing a party structure inside the Chinese diaspora associations via the party organs at China’s embassies and consulates.

The Qingtian police created a “Police-Diaspora Station” service center. Its online system started operation in 2018. The Qingtian police led the efforts, with Chinese diaspora associations participating in and providing offices. The service center has organized video conferences, information sharing sessions, regular meetings, and timely service. It created 15 sub-centers in 11 countries including Spain, Italy, and France.

The “four major mechanisms” includes establishing a “grid-management” mechanism, with larger diaspora associations as the base, and diaspora leaders, diasporas who are party members, and overseas police liaisons as the expanding points, to manage the diaspora communities. It has “successfully” handled 15 cases of a few diasporas’ protests against the CCP or its leader’s visit.

The “five areas of governance” listed anti-Falun Gong as its first area. It quoted that Qingtian police guided the “World Chinese Diaspora Anti-Cult Association in Spain” to protest the Shen Yun performance held in Barcelona in 2014.

Source: Epoch Times, May 25, 2023
http://cn.epochtimes.com/gb/23/5/25/n14003947.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics US-China Relations

China’s New Cognitive War against Taiwan

Epoch Times reported that Beijing has adopted new cognitive warfare tactics against Taiwan. In the past it used to directly or indirectly buy Taiwan’s major media including newspaper, television, and radios to spread its message. Now, however, it has switched to using Internet media, such as TikTok, YouTube, and influential webcast hosts.

One tactic is to release fake news via its controlled Taiwanese media, causing other Taiwanese media who want to keep up on news reporting but do not verify the validity of news to follow up on the fake topic. China has established a “Public Opinion Control Center” inside its military and has a 2 million strong “Internet army” (people who monitor the Internet posting and post propaganda or fake news on the Internet). This can stir up issues or debates in Taiwan media that can lead to conflicts and divisions among the Taiwanese people.

Beijing also provides scripts to people who have their own (news or other topic) channels on the Internet. Those people will replace those words commonly used in the mainland but which are uncommon in Taiwan with those commonly used in Taiwan, to make it appear to have been “created in Taiwan.”

For webcasts, China’s “Public Opinion Control Center” can arrange a mass Chinese “Internet Army” (say 100,000 people) to listen to a Taiwanese webcaster and each to pay the webcaster a small amount of money to influence the webasterc. Collectively however, the webcaster receives a large amount of money and it is hard to trace the money source.

Source: Epoch Times, June 7, 2023
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/23/6/7/n14011845.htm

Reports | | |   @CS Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend

India Takes Legal Action against Xiaomi, Seizes over 55 Billion Rupees

According to a report from China’s Southern Metropolis Daily, Indian authorities investigating financial crimes have accused Xiaomi India, as well as the company’s director and three banks, of violating the Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA). As a result, Xiaomi’s funds of RMB 4.81 billion (US$0.67 billion) have been confiscated.

The Indian Enforcement Directorate (ED) alleges that Xiaomi India and its senior executives were involved in the illegal transfer of funds. Additionally, the three banks, Citibank, HSBC, and Deutsche Bank, were charged for not conducting proper due diligence and allowing royalty payments to be remitted out of the country.

Consequently, approximately RMB 4.81 billion (55.5 billion rupees) of Xiaomi’s funds were frozen in the banks, effectively being seized by the authorities.

Xiaomi had experienced significant success in the Indian market since its entry in 2014, reaching the number one spot in 2017. The company had announced plans to invest $1 billion in Indian start-ups over five years. However, as the five-year plan was nearing completion, law enforcement agencies took action against Xiaomi’s Indian branch.

In May of the previous year, the Indian Anti-Money Laundering Office (AMLO) accused Xiaomi and its Indian subsidiary of violating foreign exchange control laws. The AMLO claimed that, since 2015, Xiaomi had sent money to three overseas entities in the form of royalty payments, leading to the freezing of the subsidiary’s account assets.

Xiaomi India was also investigated for tax-related issues in December 2021, with the Indian Tax Intelligence Bureau notifying the company that it owed 6.53 billion rupees in import duties for the period between April 2017 and June 2020. A complaint filed by Xiaomi was rejected by the local Karnataka High Court in April of this year.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), June 13, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202306130089.aspx

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

China’s May Total Exports Declined while Exports to Russia Increased

Well-known Chinese news site Sohu (NASDAQ: SOHU) recently reported that China’s General Administration of Customs just released import and export data for May. In U.S. dollar terms, China’s exports fell 7.5 percent year-over-year in May, turning negative again after two months. The impact of the pandemic is in the past, but the troika that promotes China’s economic development, investments, consumption and exports – have all encountered tremendous pressure this year. Also in May of this year, China’s total imports and exports reached US$501.19 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 6.2 percent. The trade surplus was US$65.81 billion, narrowing from last year’s by 16.1 percent. The fastest growing export destination for China in May was Russia, with an increase of 114.32 percent year-over-year, hitting a new record high. Exports to Africa increased by 12.94 percent, and exports to the UK increased by 3.73 percent. Other than those, exports to other major countries, regions, and economies all fell sharply in May. Exports to the United States, the European Union and ASEAN fell by 18.2 percent, 7.0 percent and 15.9 percent year-over-year respectively. The ten countries/regions/economies with the fastest year-over-year decline in cumulative exports from January to May were Taiwan, Canada, the United States, New Zealand, Italy, France, Hong Kong, Germany, the European Union, and the Netherlands. Also, China’s share of U.S. foreign trade has  declined, continuing its downward trend. China accounted for 15.4 percent of U.S. goods imports in the 12 months through April, the smallest share since October 2006.

Sources:
(1) Sohu, June 7, 2023
https://www.sohu.com/a/682988626_114984
(2) Lianhe Zaobao, June 8, 2023
https://www.kzaobao.com/cngov/2023-06/08140491.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

Heads of Four Major Korean Enterprises Will Soon Visit France and Vietnam

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDAQ: SINA) recently reported that, according to Korean media, the heads of the four major Korean manufacturing enterprises will jointly visit France and Vietnam at the end of June. These major Korean business leaders including Lee Jae-yong, chairman of Samsung Electronics, Chey Tae-won, chairman of the SK Group, Chung Eui-sun, chairman of the Hyundai Motor Group, and Koo Kwang-mo, chairman of the LG Group, will attend the publicity campaign event in Paris for the 2030 Busan World Expo bid. Afterwards, the business leaders will fly to Hanoi, Vietnam to attend the Korea-Vietnam Business Forum and other activities to explore ways to strengthen bilateral economic cooperation. It is reported that Shin Dong-bin, chairman of Lotte Group, may also attend the event together with the other four leaders. At present, Vietnam has attracted investments from 142 countries and regions, among which South Korea’s total investment in Vietnam has reached US$81.3 billion, becoming Vietnam’s largest foreign investor.

Source: Sina, Jun 2, 2023
https://cj.sina.com.cn/articles/view/5182171545/134e1a99902001k8ww

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Lianhe Zaobao: UK Government Plans to Remove Surveillance Cameras Made in China

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported that the British Cabinet Office will ask all government departments to remove surveillance cameras produced by Chinese companies to stop potential intelligence gathering by the Chinese government. When announcing this decision, the Cabinet Office also mentioned that a timetable will be announced for various departments to follow in order to remove surveillance cameras installed in sensitive places. The British government did not name specific Chinese companies, only saying that surveillance cameras produced by companies subject to China’s National Intelligence Law must be removed. Two people familiar with the matter said that the order is aimed at Hikvision and Dahua, two of China’s largest surveillance camera makers. Cabinet Office Minister Jeremy Quin said the new measures would protect sensitive sectors of the UK from companies that could threaten UK national security and would act as a firm deterrent against hostile acts wishing to harm the UK. He announced the measures as he proposed a series of new amendments to the government’s procurement act, including the creation of a new unit to investigate suppliers who may pose a risk to UK national security and assess whether to ban these companies from public procurement. At least a third of the police forces in England and Wales use surveillance cameras made by Hikvision. Hikvision responded by saying its products have no security issues.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, June 7, 2023
https://www.kzaobao.com/shiju/20230607/140427.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Information/Technology

South Korean Scholar: Chinese Foreign Ministry Official Tells South Korea “Who Is the Boss”

Liu Jinsong (刘劲松), China’s Director-General of the Department of Asian Affairs within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, visited Seoul in late May. China’s state media only reported that Liu conveyed China’s “stern” position to Korea and did not go into the details of the visit. Choo Jae-woo, a professor at Kyung Hee University in South Korea, wrote to The Korea Times that Liu enumerated “Four Not-allowed” positions to demonstrate to South Korea “who is the boss.” China’s “Four Not-Allowed” positions are:

  1. China will not cooperate with South Korea if it infringes on China’s core interests (e.g., the Taiwan issue);
  2. China will not cooperate with South Korea if it moves toward a pro-U.S. and pro-Japan foreign policy;
  3. China will not engage in high-level exchanges (e.g., Xi Jinping’s state visit to South Korea) if relations between the two countries remain tense; and
  4. South Korea will not be able to play a leading role on the North Korea issue if the situation deteriorates.

Mao Ning, China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokesperson, responded to a question on Liu’s visit at a press conference: “Regarding the current difficulties and challenges in Sino-South Korean relations, responsibility [for the difficulties] does not lie on China’s side. In the recent dialogue, China has expressed its stern position on its core issues to the Korean side. The Korean side should understand the problems in depth and treat them carefully, walk in the same direction that China takes, and put in positive efforts to enhance Sino-South Korean relations.”

Sources:
1. Sina, May 31, 2023
https://news.sina.cn/2023-05-31/detail-imyvscth0982061.d.html?cre=tianyi&mod=wpage&loc=12&r=0&rfunc=78&tj=cxvideo_wpage&tr=214&wm=6090
2. Epoch Times, June 6, 2023
https://cn.epochtimes.com/gb/23/6/5/n14010574.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend