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Geo-Strategic Trend - 39. page

BBC Chinese: Mainland Poll on Taiwan Militarily Reunification

BBC Chinese recently reported that the well-known periodical Journal of Contemporary China published the results of a poll of nearly 1,800 Mainland Chinese citizens regarding the military reunification of Taiwan. According to the poll results, 55 percent of respondents expressed support for Beijing’s military reunification of Taiwan and 33 percent disagreed with the use of force. Only 1 percent expressed their desire to launch a war against Taiwan immediately. Studies of Mainland people’s views on cross-Taiwan-Strait issues, due to the political sensitivity of the topic, have been rare. The most important finding of this latest poll was that people in Mainland China are relatively willing to consider different means to solve the Taiwan issue besides military force.

The results of the study show that the military approach did not enjoy overwhelming support among the respondents. At the moment when the situation across the Taiwan Strait is tense and the relationship between the United States and China is not harmonious, the poll has aroused attention.

Some observers outside of China have raised some concern over the results of the survey. Consider that 55 percent, more than half of the respondents, support military action against Taiwan. Thus, even if China were to suddenly become a democracy, Taiwan might still be under threat. It is surprising that 22 percent of the respondents agreed that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait do not necessarily need to be unified. The poll also found that older, male, and highly educated respondents were more supportive of the use of drastic measures, including the military. This Research poll was conducted via an online opt-in panel. The sample respondents were from all across mainland China, ranging across different ages, incomes and genders. The survey was conducted between the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021. A total of more than 2,000 questionnaires were collected.

Source: BBC Chinese, May 30, 2023
https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/chinese-news-65745337ight

State Media: China Spearheads Four-Country Joint Patrol of Gulf Region

An article posted in Chinese media suggested that China is leading the efforts to form a new maritime patrol in the Persian Gulf.

The article stated:

China is leading the coordination on forming a new joint patrol in the Persian Gulf. Four countries – Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman – are in discussion to establish a mechanism to defend the safety of navigation in the region.

On contrary, the Combined Maritime Force (CMF), a 34-country patrol group that the US created in the region, is in limbo. The United Arab Emirates recently quit the group and joined the China-led group, as the UAE was disappointed with the US actions. Clearly, the Gulf countries place more value on China’s peace efforts than on those of the US.

If the four-country group works, the US CMF will collapse. The Gulf region is not a place to allow the US to keep messing things up.

Source: Net Ease, June 2, 2023
https://www.163.com/dy/article/I67NK4BQ0515D8SH.html

Chinese Marine Police May Begin Arresting Foreign “Offenders”

China passed the Provisions on Procedures for Marine Police Agencies to Handle Criminal Cases on May 15. The law will be in effect starting on June 15. There are concerns over whether China will use this law to arrest citizens of other countries in the disputed waters of the South China Sea.

Article 15 stated:

For maritime criminal cases occurring outside the territory of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the jurisdiction shall be determined in accordance with the following principles:

(3) If a foreigner commits a crime against the state or a citizen of the PRC in waters other than the territorial waters of the PRC and is punishable under the Criminal Law of PRC, he is under the jurisdiction of the marine police agency of the place where the foreigner landed, entered, or resided after entering, the jurisdiction of the marine police agency of the place where the victim resided before leaving the country or currently resides, or the jurisdiction assigned by the Chinese Maritime Police Bureau if he has not entered the country and there is either no victim or the crime is against the state of PRC.

(4) For crimes under international treaties created or participated in by PRC and within the scope for the PRC to exercise criminal jurisdiction under the treaty obligations, the jurisdiction is the marine police agency of the place where the suspect was apprehended or the place he landed or entered.

Source:
1. Epoch Times, June 1, 2023
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/23/6/1/n14007942.htm
2. Peking University Law Library, May 2023
https://law.pkulaw.com/chinalaw/bc12742e184847e1bdfb.html

Leaked Internal Documents: Experts Enlisted for Cyber Army’s Reconnaissance Operation

On March 24, 2023, China’s Ministry of Public Security’s Eleventh Bureau issued an internal notice announcing plans to organize over 40 “experts in cyber intelligence, big data system construction, and data mining” from across the country to engage in a month-long period of “Special Reconnaissance Operations ” in Beijing from March 27 to April 27, 2023. The main objective of this operation was to “send personnel to participate in the battle for public opinion against overseas ‘Internet armies’ and effectively safeguard political security online.”

The leaked notice, suspected to have been obtained through email hacking, revealed that the operation was undertaken by the “Twenty-Fourth Division of the Eleventh Bureau,” led by a person named “Hu Fengming” (胡凤鸣). Several “Public Security Bureau Network Security Defense Brigades” were mentioned in the notice, which also included a list of 32 participating police officers with their real names.

The Network Security Defense Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security, also known as the Eleventh Bureau, is an internal agency responsible for handling criminal cases related to computers and information networks. It oversees the management of the national public information network security police, commonly known as the “Internet police.”

The leaked notice was independently verified by China Digital Times (CDT) through online searches and cross-referencing, confirming the identities of some of the listed police officers. As of now, CDT has confirmed that 11 individuals are indeed Internet police officers from various regions (with some screenshots as evidence), leading to the belief that the leaked notice is genuine.

It appears that Chinese authorities are aware of the leak and have taken action. As of the time of this writing, the Baidu Baike pages (Chinese encyclopedia) of the individuals on the list have been taken offline. Weibo (a popular social media platform) has also cleared all names from the list.

Source: China Digital Times, May 24, 2023
https://chinadigitaltimes.net/chinese/695957.html

Global Times: Japan Officially Introduced Export Control Measures for Semiconductor Equipment

Global Times recently reported that the Japanese government officially introduced export control measures for semiconductor manufacturing equipment, which will be implemented on July 23. China’s Ministry of Commerce responded on the same day that this is an abuse of export control measures and a serious departure from free trade and international economic and trade rules. China firmly opposes this. Japan announced in late March this year that it would amend the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Law to strengthen export controls on 23 items of chip manufacturing equipment in an effort to “cooperate with the United States to prevent technology from flowing to China and being transferred to military use.” According to the Japanese Ministry of the Economy, Trade and Industry, the restricted scope includes semiconductor cleaning, thin film deposition, heat treatment, etching, product inspection and more.The Japanese Minister of the Economy, Trade and Industry Yasutoshi Nishimura previously stated that “this is not aimed at any specific country.” However, considering the latest export management trends of countries related to semiconductor manufacturing equipment, public opinion believes that this is a measure against China. While Japan’s restrictions on semiconductors are less extensive than in the United States, about ten Japanese manufacturers will be affected to some extent by the new rules. The spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce of China stated that the measures announced will seriously damage the interests of Chinese and Japanese companies, seriously damage the Sino-Japanese economic and trade cooperation, disrupt the global semiconductor industry structure, and impact the stability of the global industrial supply chain.

Sources:
(1) Global Times, May 24, 2023
https://3w.huanqiu.com/a/de583b/4D17o6aPvPe?agt=11
(2) Xinhua, May 23, 2023
http://www.news.cn/fortune/2023-05/23/c_1129640086.htm

EU Chamber of Commerce: European Companies Pause on Investments

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that the president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China said that China’s economic growth is not what it used to be. At present, European companies are cautious about investment. Although large companies continue to invest, smaller companies have pressed the pause button or they have left. He believes that the biggest problem in China’s economy is the real estate industry, which accounts for a quarter of the total Chinese GDP. There are almost no new developments. In addition, in the field of exports, China exported 6.4 million containers to the EU last year, while the EU only exported 1.6 million containers to China. This shows China’s dependence on European consumers. In terms of industrial production, energy supply problems continue to arise. Youth unemployment remains high. China’s large private enterprises are facing serious difficulties. They are being punished, while state-owned enterprises are being rewarded with strong government support. In China, the EU Chamber of Commerce does not yet see the same way that they did  during the Cultural Revolution in the 1960s, but the country is heading in that direction.

Source: CNA, May 27, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202305270037.aspx

China’s EV Battery Material Industry Unleashes Global Expansion

The Chinese company Yunnan Energy New Material (Semcorp), the world’s largest manufacturer of battery separators, is planning to launch its first overseas factory in Hungary and aims to increase its global market share to 50 percent by 2025. The company has dispatched approximately 100 employees to the Hungarian factory and is currently recruiting locally. The factory, with an investment of approximately €340 million, is expected to start production in 2023.

Battery separators are essential components in lithium-ion batteries that prevent short circuits and regulate the movement of lithium ions between the positive and negative electrodes during charging and discharging. Yunnan Energy New Material surpassed Japan’s Asahi Kasei in 2018 to become the global market leader in the separator market. By 2022, the company had achieved a market share of 37 percent.

Yunnan Energy New Material’s overall production capacity reached 7 billion square meters by the end of 2022. The company recently held a groundbreaking ceremony for its second-phase factory in Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, and plans gradually to establish and expand factories in China. By 2025, the production capacity is expected to reach 16 billion square meters, a 2.3-fold increase from the current level.

The company’s revenue for the 2022 fiscal year increased by 58 percent compared to the previous year, reaching ¥12.5 billion, and its net profit increased by 47 percent to ¥4 billion. Yunnan Energy New Material has experienced continuous revenue and profit growth since its listing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2016, driven by the rapid development of Chinese battery manufacturers such as CATL and BYD.

While the company faces competition from technologically advanced Japanese and South Korean enterprises, it maintains a cost advantage due to its overwhelming production scale. Its customers include major battery manufacturers such as Panasonic and Samsung. However, the company faces three major challenges in achieving further growth: technological gaps with Japanese and South Korean competitors, economic security concerns between China and the United States, and the risk of oversupply in the separator market.

Yunnan Energy New Material has approximately 500 researchers, including Chinese experts who previously worked for Asahi Kasei and Toray. While the company is catching up with leading Japanese and South Korean companies in terms of quality, battery industry experts believe that expanding market share in Europe will require higher technical capabilities. Entry into the vast US market also poses difficulties due to the potential exclusion of foreign companies from tax incentives under the Biden administration’s inflation reduction law.

In the global market for the four main lithium-ion battery materials (positive electrodes, negative electrodes, separators, and electrolytes), Chinese companies hold a market share of 74 to 88 percent, while Japanese companies’ presence is declining. The focus of the market share battle will shift to the next generation of batteries, including semi-solid-state and all-solid-state batteries, which are expected to improve battery performance and safety.

Overall, Yunnan Energy New Material is aggressively expanding its presence in the global market, but it faces challenges in terms of technology, economic security, and potential oversupply. The company aims to leverage its production scale and continue its research and development efforts to remain competitive in the evolving battery industry.

Source: Nikkei, May 24, 2023
https://zh.cn.nikkei.com/china/ccompany/52475-2023-05-24-05-00-00.html

Why Did Russia Offer the Vladivostok Port to China?

Recently, Russia announced an offer of the port of Vladivostok, its most important unfrozen port in the Far East, to China as an internal port. Russia claimed that it has completed the preparation for China’s mass shipping needs.

China plans to  open the port officially on June 1. It hopes this will boost the economy at the Northeastern provinces, especially for Heilongjiang and Jilin, which have no access to the sea and have to transport their goods entirely over land, or partially to the port of Dalian and then ship them over the sea. Once Vladivostok becomes available, they can transport their goods to this seaport first (which is at a much shorter distance) and then ship the goods out. Also China’s foreign trade goods can go through Vladivostok without tariffs and other taxes.

One analysis said that Russia previously planned to develop its Far East region with Japan and South Korea as partners.  It was afraid that China might dominate the Far East as its power grows. However, this plan didn’t get very far. Now Russia finally agreed to offer it to China, showing it truly takes China as its best partner in developing the Far East. This will also trigger more trade between China and Russia.

Some people suggested that Russia has been forced to give China Vladivostok. Being that it is suppressed and sanctioned by the West for its invasion of Ukraine, Russia can only look east and rely on China.

Following this model, Russia may also open a seaport on the Japan Sea to the Chinese navy, allowing China to set a foot into the Japan Sea and counterbalance the U.S., Japanese, and Korean naval forces.

Some background information is that China’s history claims that Vladivostok, whose Chinese name Haishenwai (海参崴), was under the Qing Dynasty’s rule and was ceded to Russia in 1860 as the Qing government was no military rival to Russia.

Sources:
1. Sohu, May 18, 2023
https://www.sohu.com/a/676627195_121470982
2. Net Ease, May 16, 2023
https://www.163.com/dy/article/I4SQNHJC05561Y1A.html