Geo-Strategic Trend - 57. page

Australian news network SBS recently reported in its Chinese Edition that a 2022 Lowy Institute Poll showed growing concern over Russian and Chinese foreign policies and the possibility of a potential war on Taiwan. Few saw the Covid-19 pandemic as a threat in 2022. Three-quarters of respondents said China was “very” or “somewhat” likely to be a military threat to Australia over the next 20 years, a 30-percentage point increase from 2018. Only 12 percent of respondents said they trust China, down 40 percent from 2018. A majority of Australians (65 percent) saw China’s foreign policy as a “significant threat” over the next decade – up 29 percent from 2017. Only 11 percent said they had “great” or “somewhat” positive confidence that Xi would make the right decisions on world affairs. This figure is half of what it was in 2020 (22 percent) and 32 percent from 2018 (43 percent). For the first time in the survey results, a majority of Australians (51 percent) said they would support Australia sending troops if China invaded Taiwan and the US decided to intervene. Data also showed 88 percent of Australians were “very” or “somewhat” concerned that China could open a military base in the Pacific island nations.

Source: SBS Chinese, June 30, 2022
https://bit.ly/3R4SVgh

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported that a recent poll of 19 countries by the Pew Research Center, an American think tank, showed that an average of 68 percent of respondents hold a negative view of China. Many countries are at or near record highs. Among them, the ratios of Japan, Australia, Sweden, the United States and South Korea are all over 80 percent, 87 percent, 86 percent, 83 percent, 82 percent and 80 percent, respectively. Laura Silver, a senior fellow at the Pew, said that two things stood out about this year’s polling results. First is that the proportion of people with a negative view of China continues to be at or near an all-time high. In most of the places Pew surveyed, and in the three survey reports published in the past, few places have become more positive about China. Second is that, in many European countries, the proportion of people who have negative opinions on China is relatively low – this goes hand in hand with negative perceptions of China. Also, 79 percent of the respondents believe that China’s human rights policy is a serious problem, of which 47 percent believe that it is very serious. Around 72 percent are worried about China’s military power. At the same time, 66 percent and 59 percent are concerned about China’s economic competition and China’s involvement in their own politics, respectively.

Sources: Lianhe Zaobao, June 30, 2022
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/china/story20220630-1288105
Pew Research Center

Negative Views of China Tied to Critical Views of Its Policies on Human Rights

While the Western world has imposed tough sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, China and Russia held a series of activities recently.

1. On June 10, the Heilhe-Bragoveshchensk road bridge officially opened. Hu Chunhua, China’s Vice Premier, attended and addressed the online opening ceremony.
2. On June 15, Putin called Xi Jinping on Xi’s birthday.
3. On June 17, Xi Jinping attended, online, and addressed the plenary session of the 25th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in Russia.
4. Russia and China sent naval ships which separately sailed around the Japanese archipelago.
5. On June 17, China’s Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui said that China is ready to provide airplane parts to Russian Airlines. The Western sanctions ban exporting airline parts and leasing or supplying airplanes to Russia.
6. On June 20, Russia’s St. Petersburg Stock Exchange started trading 12 stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, including Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, Xiaomi, and Jingdong.

Sources:
1. China’s Government Website, June 10, 2022
http://www.gov.cn/guowuyuan/2022-06/10/content_5695126.htm
2. China’s Foreign Ministry Website, June 17, 2022
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202206/t20220617_10705728.html
3. Net Ease, June 23, 2022
https://www.163.com/dy/article/HAGVK42D0542ONXL.html
4. Epoch Times, June 21, 2022
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/22/6/21/n13764456.htm
5. Net Ease, June 17, 2022
https://www.163.com/dy/article/HA3938FF05198CJN.html

The French newspaper Les Échos published an analysis on Multinational companies’ crisis of confidence in China, focusing on the business community’s shock at  the brutal closure of Shanghai. They have been forced to re-evaluate the “China risk” including factors such as the zero-Covid policy, the war in Ukraine and tensions between the US and China.

The analysis says that the closure, as well as the broader disruptions caused by China’s zero-Covid policy, translate into huge economic costs. Foreign companies have massively reduced their forecasts. According to data from the European Union Chamber of Commerce, as of April, 60 percent of European subsidiaries had lowered their business targets for 2022. Production could be suspended at any time, with the epidemic and China’s draconian Covid prevention policies becoming a sword of Damocles hanging over these companies. According to a survey by the French Chamber of Commerce and Industry in China, 80 percent of French subsidiaries said that China’s zero-Covid policy is affecting their investment strategy, with 76 percent believing China’s image has deteriorated.

Geopolitics and the growing competition between the U.S. and China are other major long-term factors. Trade wars have complicated the business of multinational companies in China. The war between Russia and Ukraine has abruptly posed new risks. The potential consequences of Beijing’s possible attack on Taiwan could be even greater than that of Western companies’ retreat from Russia. In addition, companies are weighing the effect of the rise of local competitors, increased regulatory restrictions and the reputational risk of doing business in China due to Western condemnation of issues such as Xinjiang and Hong Kong. Many factors are prompting these companies to reassess their long term “China risk.”

Source: Radio France International, June 21, 2022
https://rfi.my/8WHA

Well-known Chinese news site Sohu (NASDAQ: SOHU) recently reported that relevant sources in the Japanese government revealed that the Ministry of Defense of Japan has generally decided to establish an “integrated commander” to unify the land, sea and Air Self-Defense Forces, as well as an “integrated command” to support the new position. Regarding the motives for the Japanese Ministry of Defense to make this move, Kyodo News said that the Ministry was mainly considering China’s increased maritime activities and new security areas like space, computer networks, and electromagnetic waves, and other areas. Therefore, Japan believed that there is a necessity to have a new dedicated position to improve mobility. Before the end of the year, the Japanese government will revise defense documents such as the National Security Strategy,” the Defense Plan Outline, and the Mid-term Defense Capacity Improvement Plan.  Various branches of the government are coordinating the updates to include the creation of the “integrated commander” in these official documents.

Source: Sohu, June 8, 2022
https://www.sohu.com/a/555167675_114911