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HKET: Report on Surge in Cyberattacks against NATO: Originating from Chinese IP Addresses

Hong Kong Economic Times (HKET), the leading financial daily in Hong Kong, recently reported that, with the war between Russia and Ukraine, the conflict has spread to the Internet. Many hacker organizations have participated. Check Point Research (CPR), the threat intelligence division of the software technology company Check Point, just released a research report showing that cyber-attacks by hackers against government organizations outside Ukraine increased by 21 percent. The attacks launched from Chinese IP addresses against NATO countries increased by 116 percent. Overall cyber-attacks against all industries in Ukraine increased by 20 percent, with an average of 1,466 attacks per Ukraine organization per week. However, the number of active networks in Ukraine has dropped by 27 percent due to the impact of the war. Overall cyber-attacks against Russia have grown by only one percent. Cyber-attacks against governments or military sectors in all regions of the world have increased significantly, up 21 percent from pre-conflict levels. It is worth noting that the attacks from Chinese IPs are 72 percent higher than before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The attacks from Chinese IPs on NATO corporate networks are 116 percent higher. Check Point indicated that hackers aren’t just targeting government or military targets. They are also taking advantage of the public’s eagerness to launch phishing attacks. The attacks cannot be attributed directly to China, as both domestic and foreign hackers can use Chinese IP as the source of the attack.

Source: HKET, March 23, 2022
https://bit.ly/3JKnEvf

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Information/Technology

India Plans to Double Russian Coking Coal Imports

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDAQ: SINA) recently reported that India’s Steel Minister Ram Chandra Prasad Singh said India plans to double its coking coal imports from Russia. Singh said in a conference in New Delhi that, coking coal is a key raw material for steelmaking, and the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine has affected the stable supply. Data from consultancy Kpler showed that, at least 1.06 million tons of coking and thermal coal have been shipped to Indian ports since March, the most since January 2020. U.S. President Joe Biden said on March 21 that India’s response to confronting Russia was “erratic,” an exception among Washington’s allies. Unlike other members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) – the United States, Japan and Australia – India continues to purchase Russian oil, refuses to publicly condemn Russia, and abstained from voting three times on the relevant United Nations resolutions related to Ukraine. An Indian government official said that India, the world’s third-largest consumer of crude oil, relies on imports for nearly 85 percent of its demand, while supplies from Russia are “negligible” at less than one percent. Another Indian government official said, “Russia offers oil and other commodities at lower discounts, and we are happy to accept that.”

Source: Sina, March 27, 2022
https://news.sina.com.cn/w/2022-03-27/doc-imcwiwss8447433.shtml

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Zheng Yongnian: Revelation for China from Russia-Ukraine Conflict – Open up More

In an exclusive interview with the Global Times on March 18, 2022, Zheng Yongnian, a professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen) and the Director of the Institute for Advanced Studies in Global and Contemporary China, said that the revelation for China from the Russia-Ukraine conflict is that China should open up more. The economic ties with the West will make it difficult for the parties involved in the sanction to sustain it. Here are some main points from Professor Zheng’s statement: 

The Russia-Ukraine conflict may have an important effect on the international order

Since the end of the Cold War, the U.S. has become more and more contemptuous of Russia, considering it a “troublemaker,” It considers China to be a major competitor or even an enemy. Therefore, over the past years, the U.S. has been building an “Asian mini-NATO” against China. The U.S. strategic focus is increasingly shifting from Europe and the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific region. 

In general, the post-World War II international order is in the process of rapid disintegration. Many countries are seeking their own geopolitical sphere of influence. They are hoping to establish an international order that is beneficial to themselves.

What the United States is doing in Asia now is no different from what NATO did back when it was formed. The actual “Asian version of a NATO” prototype already exists. The reason why the conflict between the “Asian version of NATO” that the United States is trying to form and China has not escalated sharply is entirely because China does not want to follow the example of the former Soviet Union to form its own group. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the trend of Asia becoming the center of the world economy will become more obvious and U.S. involvement in Asia will further expand. 

Three Important Revelations for China from the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The revelations for China from the Russia-Ukraine conflict have been huge. The biggest difference between China and Russia is that Russia is only a military power without  being a strong economic power, while China has both sufficient military power for self-preservation and it also has strong economic power. In addition, it has close economic ties with the West. Therefore, in the eyes of the American elite, China poses a far greater challenge to the United States than Russia does to the United States. (The following are the three revelations:) 

  1. China should open up more and Chinese companies must overcome all difficulties and continue to work hard to go global. Economic interdependence cannot absolutely prevent the outbreak of war, but it can moderate the intensity of the war. If the economic sanctions that the United States and Europe imposed on Russia are “to kill a thousand enemies, while only having a loss of five hundred oneself,” then supposedly to sanction China, which has an open and strong economy, that will become “to kill a thousand enemies, meanwhile having a loss of a thousand” oneself. So, it is difficult to sustain such sanctions. A mutually bound economy between China and the West has already caused the West real pain. 
  2. China cannot accept that the West completely binds China and Russia together, nor can it allow the United States to “kidnap” Europe. China and Europe have huge common interests but without geopolitical disputes. The ideological differences are entirely possible to bridge. Although the current security concerns of Europe override its economic considerations to a certain extent after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Europe is still an object for China to pursue.
  3.  How should China handle the relationship between “opening up” and “security”? Security is always a relative concept, and non-opening provides the biggest insecurity. What we should do is to explore our own security mechanism in an open state, rather than stop opening up to the outside world for the sake of so-called absolute security. 

Source: Global Times, March 18, 2022
https://world.huanqiu.com/article/47Ecx6AuEL5 

Reports | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Chinese Ambassador told Companies to Take the Opportunity to Seize the Russian Market

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a number of global multinational companies have pulled out of Russia. The Chinese Ambassador to Russia, Zhang Hanhui, recently told local Chinese companies that they should “lose no time” in seizing the “great opportunities in the crisis” and they should adjust their business operations to fill the gap in the Russian market.

Addressing a dozen executives from Chinese companies in Moscow on March 20, Zhang told them “not to wait,” but to integrate their resources and adapt to the “new situation” as soon as possible.

Amid the complicated international situation, the methods of settlement and supply chains of Chinese companies in Russia are encountering great difficulties and interruptions. This is the time when private small and medium-sized enterprises come into play, added Zhang. He said that the Chinese government is making adjustmenst and is building new platforms to solve the outstanding problems of settlement and logistics.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), March 20, 2022
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202203220310.aspx

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

China’s True View between the U.S. and Russia

 On March 19, the day after Biden and Xi Jinping had their conference call on March 18 to discuss China’s position on the Russia-Ukraine War, Liu Xin, a famous news reporter for the Communist Party’s mouth-piece China Global Television Network (CGTN) posted a message on Twitter. The message read, “Can you help me fight your friend so that I can concentrate on fighting you later?” (The “friend” in her tweet is likely to refer to Russia).

The Arms Control Division of China’s Ministry of Diplomacy reposted Liu Xin’s tweet in both English and Chinese on its official Weibo account, “Strategic Security and Arms Control Online,” with three Chinese characters as the comments: “真相了!” (meaning “Truth!”)

Source:
1. Twitter, March 19, 2022


2. Weibo, March 19, 2022
https://weibo.com/5594165638/LkuxHEles

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend US-China Relations

China Encounters Obstacles in Global Race for Cobalt 

At the beginning of March, a Congolese court ordered Chinese Molybdenum Co. (Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum) to cede control temporarily (for approximately six months) of the cobalt mine –Tenke Fungurume. The state-owned miner Gécamines SA of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) accused Chinese Molybdenum of trying to evade paying millions of dollars in royalties by under-reporting reserves. China Molybdenum acquired the mine from Freeport McMoRan Inc. in 2016 for $2.65 billion. The investigation has been extended to several other Chinese companies there. That extension threatens to affect China’s global competition in cobalt. 

The DRC’s cobalt belt is the world’s richest source of cobalt. It has become critical to the global transition to cleaner energy. Cobalt can boost charge rates and has a stabilizing effect, extending battery life and preventing cathode corrosion that can lead to battery fires. Just one electric vehicle can require between 10 and 30 pounds of cobalt to build its battery, depending on the manufacturer.  

China has been using electric vehicles as a breakthrough point to catch up with the Western auto industry. It has not only included them in the ten key areas of “Made in China 2025” but has also laid out a big plan to monopolize cobalt by investing heavily in Africa. China’s interest includes areas from   cobalt mining to the generation of lithium batteries. It also includes cobalt refining, manufacturing battery cells, integrating battery modules and assembling batteries. China is trying to control the entire ecosystem. The Wall Street Journal previously reported that, for more than a decade, Chinese companies have spent billions of dollars buying out U.S. and European mines in the DRC’s cobalt belt. 

According to the estimates by Darton Commodities, Chinese refineries supplied 85 percent of the world’s battery cobalt in 2020. Most of this cobalt came from the DRC. Last year the DRC accounted for 70 percent of the world’s total cobalt production. Chinese companies dominate nearly 70 percent of the country’s mining industry. 

The DRC is one of the world’s poorest countries. More than 60 percent of its 90 million people live on less than $1.90 a day. According to the World Bank, the DRC’s annual budget is about $7 billion. In the middle of last year, during a visit to mining areas, DRC President Félix Tshisekedi vowed that his government would continue to review mining contracts to ensure that the Congolese people benefit from their vast extractive industry and finally break the so-called resources curse by paying higher wages and royalties. 

Euractiv even reported that the Congolese workers of Sicomines who are employed by a company a Chinese consortium owns claim that they do the same work as Chinese workers do but are paid much less than Chinese and their Chinese supervisors subject them to degrading treatment. 

Source: Epoch Times, March 12, 2022

https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/22/3/12/n13641727.htm

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Democratic Republic of Congo Halts China’s Control of a Cobalt Mine

Cobalt is a key material in the lithium-ion battery, and critical to electric cars. In the past 10 years, Chinese companies have spent several billion dollars to buy up the cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the largest cobalt supplying country in the world.

Recently a Congo court ordered China Molybdenum Co. to temporarily give up its control of the Tenke Fungurume mine. Gécamines SA, Congo’s state mine company reported that China Molybdenum Co. provided a false, low mine reserve number to the government to evade several million dollars in fees. The Congo authorities stopped the Chinese company’s operation in the mine for six months, until the accounting firm Mazars re-assesses the true value. The investigation has also expanded to a few other Chinese companies.

Last year, Congo President Félix Tshisekedi vowed that his government will continue reviewing mine contracts to ensure the Congo people benefit from the mining. Earlier this year, the Biden administration sent a group to Congo to discuss how the U.S. can obtain cobalt.

Source: Epoch Times, March 12, 2022
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/22/3/12/n13641727.htm

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

Russian Newspaper Listed 10 Ways in which China Benefits from the Russia-Ukraine War

On March 12, the Russian newspaper The View (Взгляд) listed 10 areas in which Chinese companies have benefited from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War and the sanctions from the U.S. and European countries.

First, the Union Pay system will be a winner. After Mastercard and Visa rejected overseas payment transactions, seven major Russian banks have indicated they plan to connect to China’s Union Pay system.

Second, the Chinese banking system will benefit. The West’s refusal to issue loans to Russian banks and invest in Russian assets creates opportunities for Chinese banks.

Third, it is good for the Chinese Yuan. Cutting off the access to the Dollar and the Euro will create a shortage of Western currency for Russian banks. Russian banks, companies, portfolio investors and ordinary people will turn their attention to the Chinese yuan.

Fourth, the Russian-Chinese trade will continue to climb to historic records.

Fifth, more Chinese consumer goods will enter the Russian market. Chinese clothing and daily products will become realistic substitutes for imported goods due to the shortage of dollars and euros.

Sixth, Chinese automakers will be in a favorable position.

Seventh, China will have access to all Russian energy and other raw materials that Europe rejected.

Eighth, Chinese investors will actively invest in Russian companies under favorable conditions, as competitors are exiting the Russian market.

Ninth, China’s role as a bypass route for Russia will increase. China could become a ‘middleman’ through which Russia could ship needed Western parts while paying to third parties.

Tenth, Chinese airlines will be in an advantageous position. After Russia bans European airlines from flying over its airspace, passengers will fly with Asian airlines, including Chinese airlines.

Source: HK01.com, March 14, 2022
https://www.hk01.com/即时国际/746656

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend