Geo-Strategic Trend – Page 60

China Has Suffered Heavy Setbacks on Two Lines of the “Belt and Road” and Attempts to Find an Eastward Way

On May 04, 2022, Epoch Times reported that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has dealt a serious setback to the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) “Belt and Road,” a $4 trillion global strategic plan that it has implemented for nearly a decade. As the CCP is reluctant to condemn Russia, opposes sanctions against Russia, and cooperates with Russia with “No Limit,” the differences between the CCP and the Western free world in terms of values and between democracy and totalitarianism have been further exposed. The West’s distrust of the CCP has thus deepened, causing the West to drift further away from China. Also, the future of China-EU trade is not optimistic. This has forced the CCP to look eastward.

The frequency and volume of “China-Europe Railway Express” have plummeted

The “Belt and Road” mainly transports Chinese goods to Europe through the “China-Europe Railway Express (CERE)” via Russia, Belarus and Poland, which runs more than 98 percent of the China-Europe Railway Express. Since European customers are resisting the Russian invasion, many European companies do not want their products to be transported through Russian territory and have basically terminated the CERE via Russia. The frequency and volume of the CERE have dropped significantly and the flow of railroad cargo has decreased by 30 percent and, in some instances, even as much as 50 percent.

Therefore, in the short term, China must switch from rail transport to sea transport, or bypass Russia-Belarus and take the route through the Caspian Sea and Turkey. This route, however, is immature and has limited transportation capacity, long cycle times and high prices.

The “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor” has serious security risks

The Southern route of the “Belt and Road” is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). It goes through Pakistan to the southwestern port of Gwadar, that is under construction. Its eventual use is still pending. Much worse is that there are serious security concerns.

The fishermen of Gwadar port account for more than 70 percent of the local population and large Chinese trawlers have occupied the fishing areas of the locals and robbed the local fishermen of their jobs. The economic prosperity promised by the “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor” has not materialized and people have become poorer. The local ethnic independent armed group, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), opposes any Chinese investment. Since November 15 last year, thousands of local people have launched a series of protests. Chinese citizens have become the targets of suicide bombings by the BLA. For example, on April 26, a suicide bombing attack against the Chinese occurred in Karachi, a city in southern Pakistan, killing three Chinese nationals. It was the work of the BLA.

The CCP tries to find a way to the east

On April 21, in a video speech at the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2022, the CCP’s General Secretory Xi Jinping reported that it was China’s intention to work actively to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and join the Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (DEPA). Shortly after the speech, China signed a security agreement with the Solomon Islands in the South Pacific.

Katsuji Nakazawa, former China bureau chief for Nikkei Asia, determined that “China’s (the CCP’s) latest development in the Pacific is related to the stagnation of the ‘Belt and Road’ due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Its attempts to create a large-scale economic zone extending westward from Eurasia have been bogged down because of the Russian invasion and China (CCP) now has to look east.”

Related postings on Chinascope:
• Russia-Ukraine War Accelerates Deterioration of CCP’s “Belt and Road” Global Strategy – Chinascope

Source:
Epoch Times, May 4, 2022.https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/22/5/4/n13726633.htm

Briefings | | May 12, 2022 | Geo-Strategic Trend

EU Passes Resolution Condemning Chinese Communist Regime’s Forced Organ Harvesting

The European Parliament passed a resolution on May 5, 2022, expressing their “serious concerns” over the ongoing, systematic and inhumane harvesting of organs from Chinese dissidents, especially Falun Gong practitioners, Uyghurs, Tibetans, Christians, and other Muslims.

The resolution states “The People’s Republic of China has extremely low rates of voluntary organ donations owing to traditional beliefs; . . . Whereas China declared that it had stopped using organs from executed prisoners in 2015 and had launched a national donation system, without, however, ever completely banning the practice, which still remains legal;”

“The organ transplant system in China does not comply with the WHO’s requirements for transparency and traceability in organ procurement pathways, and whereas the Chinese Government has resisted independent scrutiny of the system; whereas voluntary and informed consent is a precondition for ethical organ donation;” hence the resolution.

The resolution “calls for the EU and its Member States to raise the issue of organ harvesting in China at every Human Rights Dialogue. It insists that the EU and its Member States publicly condemn organ transplant abuses in China; it calls on the Member States to take the necessary actions in order to prevent transplant tourism to China by their citizens and to raise awareness of this issue among their citizens traveling to China.”

Source: Radio Free Asia, May 6, 2022
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/junshiwaijiao/cl-05062022131145.html

Briefings | | May 10, 2022 | Geo-Strategic Trend

World Press Freedom Index: Where Countries Ranked

Major Taiwanese news group Eastern Media International recently reported that, not long ago, Reporters Without Borders released the rankings for the 2022 World Press Freedom Index. Taiwan rose from 43rd last year to 38th. It is now ahead of Japan, South Korea and the United States. Hong Kong fell all the way from 80th last year to 148th this year. China ranked 175th out of 180 countries. The Index showed that Nordic countries are still at the top, with Norway and Denmark taking the top two places Both have high ratings of over 90. The five countries sitting at the bottom are North Korea (180th), Eritrea (179th), Iran (178th), Myanmar (176th), and China (175th). The United States ranked 42. The Reporters Without Borders report pointed out that the authoritarian regimes, which strictly control the media, used their asymmetrical position to launch propaganda wars against democracy, intensifying the confrontations with the democratic nations. Every year, Reporters Without

Borders ranks 180 countries and territories on the degree of freedom for journalists.

The situation is classified as “very bad” in a record number of 28 countries in this year’s Index, while 12 countries, including Belarus (153rd) and Russia (155th), are on the Index’s red list (indicating “very bad” press freedom situations) on the map. The world’s 10 worst countries for press freedom include Myanmar (176th), where the February 2021 coup d’état set press freedom back by 10 years, as well as China, Turkmenistan (177th), Iran (178th), Eritrea (179th) and North Korea (180th).

Source: ETToday, May 3, 2022
https://www.ettoday.net/news/20220503/2243194.htm
https://rsf.org/en/rsfs-2022-world-press-freedom-index-new-era-polarisation

Briefings | | May 10, 2022 | Geo-Strategic Trend Social Stability

CCP’s Warning to Japan: Don’t Be the “Leading-Way-Party” for “Asia-Pacification of NATO”

On May 6, Global Times, an official media of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), published an editorial in Chinese (an English version was published on the next day), warning Japan, “Don’t Be the ‘Leading-Way-Party (Traitor)’ for the ‘Asia-Pacification of NATO.'” The article stated, “Japan shouldn’t be a promoter for NATO’s Asia-Pacific expansion.”

The editorial said, the Ukraine crisis and the geopolitical tragedy it has triggered are not enough to kill the hunger of the U.S. and some Western countries to reap political profits from the situation. Visiting Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and his British counterpart Boris Johnson agreed in principle on May 5 on a reciprocal access agreement between the Japanese Self-defense Forces and the British military. Johnson called the move “a landmark” that will strengthen “Britain’s commitment to the Indo-Pacific region.” Meanwhile, Kishida made sensational remarks. He stated that “Ukraine may be tomorrow’s East Asia,” saying that now is the time for the G7 leading nations to solidify their unity.

All these showy remarks reveal a dangerous tendency: NATO is trying to apply the tricks of “bloc politics” and “confrontation between camps” to the Asia-Pacific region. For a long time, the United Kingdom has propagated the following on several occasions, “the globalization of NATO” and the “need to preempt threats in the Indo-Pacific” and to ensure Taiwan “is able to defend itself.” Within the Asia-Pacific region, Japan is abnormally active in catering to such a scheme. It seems Tokyo wants to be the “traitorous guide” for NATO’s expansion in the Asia-Pacific region.

The United States is undoubtedly the main force behind this trend. In recent years, Washington has pushed its allies to coordinate with its strategy to look eastward. London aims to recover its declining influence by “exploring the way” for Washington. Japan wants to take advantage of the U.S. connivance to break the “shackles” of the pacifist constitution and resurrect its militarism. The Ukraine crisis is a “good dish” for some politicians who have constantly escalated their voice and who move to create regional tensions.

This editorial also expresses Beijing’s judgment on NATO. NATO makes divisions in Europe and creates crises and wars in the world. The NATO-style bloc confrontation mechanism forcibly divides regional countries into countries within the alliance and countries outside the alliance, which can only create more insecurity and cause countries to plunge into the paradox and trap of being vigilant and hostile against each other. It is definitely a poison not an antidote for easing the security anxiety and tension of regional countries. The European security “crash” proves the US-led NATO system doesn’t fit in the current era.

Now, some people want to cooperate with the United States and the West to forcibly introduce the “security model” into the Asia-Pacific region, which has proved to be a failure in Europe and has led to serious consequences. Isn’t that an intent to undermine regional peace and stability? Those countries who talk about “Ukraine may be tomorrow’s East Asia” are filled with self-interest and are serious about replicating one or more Ukrainian crises in other regions. Asian countries must remain on high alert to that.

The good situation in Asia must not be destroyed by the “new cold war.” Also. the vigilance and rejection of the “Asia-Pacification of NATO” should become a strong consensus and collective consciousness of all countries in the region.

Finally, the editorial emphasizes in particular is that Japan should not undermine the overall environment for peace and development in the region. Such an act of “inviting the wolf into the room” will harm others and harm itself.

Source: Global Times, May 06, 2022
https://opinion.huanqiu.com/article/47tzr9st2EQ, https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202205/1264992.shtml

Briefings | | May 9, 2022 | Geo-Strategic Trend

LTN: S&P Boosted Taiwan’s Sovereign Rating to AA+

Major Taiwanese news network Liberty Times Network (LTN) recently reported that S&P Global just upgraded Taiwan’s sovereign credit rating to AA+ with a “stable” outlook, thanks to the strong performance of Taiwan’s economy. After 21 years, Taiwan’s sovereign rating once again reached AA+. S&P explained that strong demand for Taiwan’s electronics exports drove the strong economic performance despite the pressure from rising geopolitical tensions. S&P expressed the belief that the Taiwan Strait issue will not seriously undermine Taiwan’s economic stability in the next three to five years. The rating will remain fairly balanced in the next year, and the structural demand for Taiwan’s semiconductor exports may offset the risks related to geopolitical tensions. However, geopolitical challenges still pose headwinds to Taiwan’s export-reliant economy. S&P did not believe this negative would be significant enough to derail Taiwan’s competitive manufacturing growth. Covid-19 has been driving the global acceleration of digital development, boosting Taiwan’s semiconductor exports. S&P also pointed out that Taiwan’s inflation rate has remained one of the lowest in Asia for quite a long time. This new rating adjustment was after S&P upgraded Taiwan’s sovereign rating from AA- to AA in April last year.

Source: LTN, April 29, 2022
https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/3909967

Briefings | | May 3, 2022 | Geo-Strategic Trend

Global Times: “Expel Russia” Is a False Proposition

China’s state-run media Global Times published an opinion article expressing concern over the U.S. attempt to expel Russia from international communities. The following is a translation of the article:

After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States and the West imposed multiple sanctions on Russia and attempted to isolate Russia internationally. The latest move is that the United States and other Western countries called on most of the G20 members to work together to remove Russia from the organization.
The United States is attempting to undermine international law and the multilateral order through the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This is a trend that deserves the international community’s high vigilance … In fact, this pan-politicized operation by the U.S. has neither a solid legal basis nor wide support from the international community.

First, from the perspective of international law, it is difficult to find a legal basis for expelling Russia. Membership in an international organization is not determined by one or two countries, but by the constitution of the international organization. If the articles of an association have relevant provisions, the procedures shall be performed in accordance with the provisions of the articles. In general, international organizations do not have the right to directly expel or suspend membership if the constitution does not provide for it.
As the main forum for international economic cooperation, the G20 needs to follow the principle of consensus. Trying to deprive a member of its membership is bound to undermine the unity of the G20 and impact global economic governance, which is not in the interest of any party.

Second, international mainstream voices do not actually support the expulsion of Russia. Although the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution to suspend Russia’s membership in the Human Rights Council, after the vote, Serbian President Vucic said that Serbia voting in support of the resolution was out of fear of the threat of sanctions if Serbia voted no. This fully shows that under the coercion and inducement of the U.S. and the West, a large part of the true voice of the international community has been silenced in the hustle and bustle of the U.S. and the West. So to what extent can such voting results reflect the mainstream understanding of the international community? Moreover, many G20 member countries such as China and Indonesia have expressed their opposition to the remarks about boycotting Russia in the G20. The Brazilian foreign minister severely criticized the way Western countries handled the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and opposed the expulsion of Russia from the G20. Even in the World Tourism Organization, many member states disapprove of suspending Russia’s membership. Under the discourse hegemony and selective reporting of the United States and the West, the voice of expelling Russia seems to be very loud, but in fact most countries are the “silent majority.”

Third, international organizations do not want to expel Russia. In the context of the prolonged epidemic and intensified conflicts, what international organizations need more is solidarity and cooperation to overcome difficulties, rather than widening the gap and deepening the estrangement. Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that few international organizations openly support the expulsion of Russia.

In a word, to a large extent, “expelling Russia” in the international system is actually just a false proposition that American and Western politicians have made. The reality is that economic globalization has made the international community highly interconnected. This move by the U.S. side will not only tear apart the international system, but will not help resolve the current Ukraine crisis; nor is it in line with the general trend of the era of globalization. In the end, the era when one country or several countries have the final say has passed. The U.S. and the West should carefully reflect on what rights they have and what qualifications they have to issue orders to other countries.

Source: Global Times, April 25, 2022
https://opinion.huanqiu.com/article/47k9g3kLjhr

Briefings | | May 1, 2022 | Geo-Strategic Trend US-China Relations

TGTM Helped Columbia University Reject Chinese Student Hostile to the United States

The Great Translation Movement (TGTM) (see Chinascope posting) is a volunteer-based translation efforts to translate Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) domestic propaganda and the brainwashed Chinese people’s extreme online messages, from Chinese to English, to present to the Western world the true ideology and sentiments in China.

Recently, a Chinese student who was admitted to the Columbia University, posted on WeChat in Chinese that he had received the offer and “will go buy guns to blow out Americans.” TGTM translated his posting into English and sent it to the Columbia University. The school discussed it with the student who admitted his posting. Then Columbia University cancelled his admission.

Many Chinese people posted comments to support Columbia University’s decision.

Source: Epoch Times, April 20, 2022
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/22/4/20/n13715768.htm

Briefings | | April 28, 2022 | Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

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