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Li Qiang: Resolving Local Government Debts Will be a Protracted Battle

On March 22, the Chinese State Council held a video conference on Preventing and Resolving Local Debt Risks. People’s Daily reported that “Premier Li Qiang gave a speech emphasizing that the work of preventing and resolving local debt is both an offensive assault and a war of attrition. All regions and departments should improve their political stance, strengthen their sense of responsibility and systems thinking, properly resolve risks from existing debts, and strictly prevent new debt risk. We must continue in-depth work to resolve risks from local government debt and resolutely implement requirements regarding tight budgets.”

Source: People’s Daily, March 23, 2024
http://politics.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0323/c1024-40201534.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics

All Levels of Government Must Maintain a Tight Budget, Top Chinese Officials at National People’s Conference Repeatedly Emphasize

During China’s National People’s Conference, Premier Li Qiang delivered the annual “Government Work Report” on March 5th. His report stated that “governments at all levels should get used to living with a tight budget, truly tighten their belts, and effectively use fiscal funds where they are most needed and can produce real results.”

At a press conference on March 6th, Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fo’an answered a question about tight budgets, saying that “the Party Central Committee has set the clear requirement that party and government organs must live under a tight budget. Governments at all levels should take the lead in implementing [such financial constraint] and be thrifty in all undertakings. This year’s government work report emphasizes [such restraint] again, further highlighting that this is not just a temporary need but rather a long-term strategy.”

At the Guizhou provincial delegation’s discussion on March 6, Li Bingjun, Governor of Guizhou Province, said, “At the end of last year, [Party] General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized at the Central Economic Work Conference that Party and government organs should get used to ‘living within a tight budget.’” He added, “In my understanding, ‘living with a tight budget’ is not a temporary measure, but rather the new norm.”

Sources:
1. Chinese Government Website, March 5, 2024
https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202403/content_6936325.htm
2. Guancha, March 6, 2024
https://www.guancha.cn/politics/2024_03_06_727443.shtml
3. Phoenix, March 6, 2024
https://news.ifeng.com/c/8XjUlPgYsXM

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics

Hong Kong’s Proposed Article 23 Law Would Sever Foreign Ties, Restrict Information Flow

The Hong Kong government has proposed draft legislation to implement Article 23 of the Hong Kong Basic Law. The proposed law has provisions that increase prison sentences for various crimes if they involve colluding with “foreign forces.” Legal scholars have said that the broad definition of “foreign forces” in the draft, combined with the explicit criminalization of espionage-related activities, forms a stronger “firewall” that could cut off international connections to Hong Kong.

The draft states that “foreign forces” include foreign governments, foreign political parties, overseas organizations pursuing political agendas, and international organizations. “Colluding with foreign forces” refers to cooperating with them or acting under their control or funding. Some crimes would carry heavier sentences if foreign forces are involved.

A new “foreign interference crime” prohibits actions aimed at interfering in policymaking, elections or judiciary operations in Hong Kong using improper means like intentionally making false statements. This is punishable by up to 14 years in prison.

Eric Lai, a research fellow at Georgetown Center for Asian Law, points out that the broad definitions and heavy penalties for collusion appear aimed at severing connections between Hong Kong and overseas entities, impeding the flow of information, resources and funds. The draft also criminalizes illegally obtaining or disclosing state secrets under a broad definition.

Lai argues these measures create a stronger “firewall”, allowing authorities to block outbound information flows on national security grounds while restricting inbound overseas information. Certain provisions also give police powers to restrict detainees’ access to lawyers in national security cases.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), March 12, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202403120330.aspx

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

CNA: Chinese Overseas Democracy Activists Hold Conference on Blueprints for Democratic China

Taiwan’s Centra News Agency report that Chinese overseas democracy activists Wei Jingsheng, Wang Dan, Wang Juntao, and others convened the “First Overseas Chinese National Consensus Conference” in Washington, D.C. to discuss blueprints for a democratic China following a future collapse of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The two-day conference on March 2 and 3, and on March 4 the group released a “Declaration of the First National Consensus Conference on China’s Democratic Movement.” The declaration enumerated a 10-point consensus on future democratic processes.

The declaration stated: “At this critical moment, people concerned about China’s democratization should seriously study the Chinese situation and the experiences and lessons of various countries in the world and propose plans and approaches for rebuilding a constitutional political system in China.” The declaration emphasized that “overthrowing the tyranny of the CCP” and “establishing a free, equal, just, and harmonious civil society” must be the first step towards democratic nation-building in China.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), March 5, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202403050211.aspx

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China Among Largest Foreign Direct Investors in Indonesia’s New Capital City

In 2019 Indonesian President Joko Widodo ratified a motion to move Indonesia’s capital city from Jakarta to the new planned city of Nusantara, which is currently under construction and is to be inaugurated in 2024. China has become one of the biggest foreign investors in this new “smart city,” focusing mainly on infrastructure and industrial projects. The Nusantara Capital Administration has held investment forums and conferences in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, to attract China’s money. Widodo said in October 2023 that in two years Beijing would bypass Singapore to become the country that contributes most to Indonesia in terms of foreign direct investment.

Research published by the University of Kentucky in 2021 showed that China had already invested in “smart cities” in Southeast Asia countries such as Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Myanmar.

Source: Voice of America, March 6, 2024
https://www.voachinese.com/a/china-to-invest-in-indonesia-new-capital-20240305/7514971.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

Growth in Beijing’s “Stability Maintenance” Spending Decelerates

The Second Session of China’s 14th National People’s Congress submitted a report by the Ministry of Finance regarding central and local government budgets in 2023. The report revealed that defense expenditure in 2024 will amount to 1.67 trillion yuan (US$ 230 billion), an increase of 7.2 percent from a year ago, while public security expenditure will be 2276.62 billion yuan, an increase of 1.44 percent. In 2023, public security expenditure (a.k.a. “stability maintenance” expenditure) was 2089.72 billion yuan, representing an increase of 6.4 percent from 2022. The growth rate for stability maintenance spending this year has dropped by nearly five percentage points.

A commentator attributed the decrease in the growth rate of stability maintenance funding to the reduction in central government fiscal revenue. To compensate for reduced fiscal revenue, Beijing has increasingly leaned on local governments and street offices to foot the bill for stability maintenance: “Some 20 percent to 40 percent of local fiscal revenue will be used for stability maintenance.”

To make up for insufficient stability maintenance funding, local governments and local police have been attempting to boost revenue by issuing fines. Some local governments have also implemented temporary policies to increase fees charged to enterprises and individual merchants.

Source: Radio Free Asia, March 6, 2024
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/zhengzhi/gt1-03062024014146.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics Social Stability

People’s Daily: Measures to Address Agricultural Labor Shortage

People’s Daily republished an article from Economic Daily discussing how China might resolve its agricultural labor shortage problems. The article said that “the matter of ‘who will farm the land’ is an urgent issue” related to “national food security and rural revitalization.” With a large number of rural laborers migrating to cities, there is a prominent “structural shortage of labor” in rural areas of China. Below are some key ideas from the article.

“The rapid development of mechanization provides impetus for solving this problem. China’s agricultural industry has already realized a basic level of ‘machines replacing human labor.’ … The comprehensive mechanization rate of cultivation and harvesting of crops has reached 73.1 percent nationwide. … China’s agricultural industry is gradually shifting from small-scale household farming to large-scale and intensive development.”

One concept for the development of large-scale agriculture is a large-scale land management (i.e. land consolidation). “Various regions have started exploring [the technique of] ‘consolidating small fields (from different owners) into larger ones.'” Another concept is “large-scale service management, which involves providing fully-managed or semi-managed services to small farmers … who retain control of their land.” The article said that the latter concept “is more realistic for China’s agriculture industry.”

Source: People’s Daily, February 15, 2024
http://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0215/c1004-40177697.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics

Japanese Government: China’s Distressed Debt Securitization Increased by 46%

According to Nikkei Chinese Edition, the Cabinet Office of Japan has published its semi-annual “World Economic Trends” report. The report pointed out signs of stagnation in China’s economy and warned that they may last – “not only will the economy stagnate in the short term, but there are also concerns about halted growth in the medium-to-long term.”

Based on data from private Chinese databases, the Cabinet Office of Japan annually reports on the amount of securities issuance converted from non-performing loans. In China, loans with delinquent payments over 90 days are considered non-performing. For 2023, such securities issuance amounted to 46.6 Billion Yuan (US$ 6.5 Billion), a 46 percent increase from 2022 (32 Billion Yuan). This increase was significantly higher than in 2021 and 2022; those years saw year-over-year increases of less than 10 percent.

In 2023, half of the security issuance converted from non-performing loans originated from housing loans, amounting to 23.6 Billion Yuan. This figure was 2.5 times higher than the previous year’s metric for converted housing loans.

The Cabinet Office of Japan stated “It is necessary to continue monitoring whether there will arise an excessive transfer of (bad loan) risk onto the financial markets.”

Source: Nikkei, February 29, 2024
https://zh.cn.nikkei.com/china/ceconomy/54956-2024-02-29-09-41-11.html?start=1

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