US-China Relations - 4. page

People’s Daily posted a 17-seconds video clip (with Chinese subtitle) of Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor of the United States, with title “Sullivan’s Admission: the U.S.’ Efforts to Change China over the Past Several Decades Have Failed.” In the video, Sullivan said:

“We realize that efforts, implied or explicit, to shape or change PRC (People’s Republic of China) over several decades did not succeed. We expect that PRC will be a major player on the world stage for the foreseeable future. That means that even as we compete, we have to find ways to live alongside one another.”

{Editor’s Note: The video clip seems to be from Sullivan’s long speech on the future of U.S.-China relations delivered at the Brookings Institution on January 30, 2024. A transcript of the entire speech is available here.}

Sources:
1. People’s Daily, February 2, 2024
http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0202/c1002-40172130.html
2. White House, January 30, 2024
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/01/30/remarks-and-qa-by-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-on-the-future-of-u-s-china-relations/

Su Xiaohui, Deputy Director of the American Research Institute at the China Institute of International Studies, delivered a keynote speech via video at Xinhua News Agency’s 14th “Discussing World Affairs” International Symposium on January 9, 2024. Su believes that the U.S. continues to view China as its “primary competitor” and “the most significant geopolitical challenge [facing the U.S].” According to Su, the U.S.’ recent policy on China exhibits three new characteristics:

• Firstly, U.S. policy on China “has been forced to return to some degree of rationality.” Su suggests that “in 2023, the U.S. gained a clearer understanding of China, realizing that it cannot easily suppress or defeat China and that it thus must accept ‘peaceful coexistence.'” Also, “the U.S. recognizes that the China-U.S. relationship not only affects the two nations in question but also influences the overall international situation. The international community hopes for overall stability in the relations between these two major powers, and that relations [between the powers] will not get out of control.”
• Secondly, the U.S. “has recognized the necessity of cooperation with China.”
• Thirdly, U.S. policy is now along the lines of “contain China while engaging with China.” Su said that U.S. pressure on China is now “done via provocations through various means and on various levels,” and that in competing with China “the U.S. aims to precision-strike China while reducing the blowback on itself.”

Su also mentioned that China should “be cautious of U.S. attempts to use intergovernmental communication mechanisms for its own benefits or for fostering strategic competition. The U.S. believes that, by communicating with China about arms control, it can pull China into certain arms control treaties and thereby impose restrictions on China. This would enable the U.S. to ‘win without fighting.’ But China should not allow the U.S. to weaken it via such a low-cost approach.”

Source: Xinhua, January 12, 2024
https://app.xinhuanet.com/news/article.html?articleId=75adb2d947c23b8e9a06a8309ef97a03

Hong Kong Economic Journal (HKEJ) recently reported that JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said China has been “very consistent” in opening its markets to financial services companies, but calculating the potential benefits for U.S. companies has become more complicated. In an interview with CNBC at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Dimon said investors that are considering expanding into China have to be “a little worried.” He added that he met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang on the sidelines of the Davos conference and “it’s a good thing they’re here.”

In the wide-ranging interview, Dimon also talked about the U.S. economy. In recent months, Dimon has repeatedly said that inflation may not disappear as quickly as the market expects, and that the Fed may have to further raise the benchmark interest rate. He said it would be a mistake to think that the future is all bright given that the U.S. already had so much fiscal and monetary stimulus — he would remain cautious.

Source: HKEJ, January 17, 2024
https://www2.hkej.com/instantnews/article?id=3664469

Nikkei Chinese Edition recently reported that U.S. imports from China during the period January to November, 2023, decreased by more than 20 percent compared with the same period in 2022. Although import data for December 2023 have not yet been released, it seems highly probably that U.S. imports from Mexico will surpass imports from China for the calendar year 2023.

There is a clear trend in the United States of “friend-shoring,” i.e. changing the source of imports from China to other countries who are more closely aligned with the U.S. This trend of relocating supply chains has been particularly rapid in categories of imports such as electronic products, previously highly dependent on imports from China. In terms of smartphones, imports from China decreased 10 percent year-over-year during the period from January to November. Meanwhile, electronic product imports from India expanded by a factor of five. For laptop computers, U.S. imports from China decreased by about 30 percent, while imports from Vietnam’s increased by a factor of four.

In 2023, U.S. imports from Europe and Southeast Asia increased, and imports from the European Union (EU) hit a new high during the period January to November, 2023. Although the import volume from ASEAN countries decreased year-over-year, this year’s imports from the ASEAN region were still the second highest in history, with the share of imports from ASEAN countries double that of 10 years ago.

In order to mitigate geopolitical risks, multinational corporations have widely adopted a “China + 1” strategy, diversifying their supply chains to avoid overreliance on China.

Source: Nikkei Chinese, January 10, 2024
https://cn.nikkei.com/politicsaeconomy/investtrade/54529-2024-01-10-09-54-58.html?start=0

On December 11, 2023, U.S. President Biden issued “A Proclamation on Suspension of Entry as Immigrants and Nonimmigrants of Persons Enabling Corruption.” On January 7th, Chinese state media outlet China Discipline Inspection and Monitoring News criticized this proclamation as U.S. “hypocrisy” and “double standards” on anti-corruption efforts. Its article reported that 20 of China’s most wanted fugitives are currently hiding in the U.S.

The article states that, in recent years, the U.S. has expanded the concept of national security “to justify long-arm jurisdiction and suppress its rivals, while perpetuating its own hegemony.” The report argues that U.S. anti-corruption efforts highlight hypocrisy and hegemonic goals, as well as expose the U.S. as “the world’s largest safe haven for corruption assets and fugitives.”

Specifically, the article claims that the U.S. hosts the highest concentration of persons from developing countries who are suspected of corruption and white-collar crimes. Of the “100-Person Red Notice List” published by the Chinese Interpol office, 20 out of the 38 fugitives who have not yet been brought to justice in China are said to be hiding in the U.S. (The “100-Person Red Notice List” refers to 100 Chinese former state officials who were suspected of corruption and became fugitives targeted for pursuit by Chinese authorities.)

Some Chinese netizens questioned why the CCP’s state media is criticizing the new U.S. entry ban, which ostensibly would make life harder for corrupt individuals fleeing from Chinese authorities. Some netizens speculated that corrupt people [within the CCP] and their families are angry that they can no longer travel to or study in the U.S. One netizen remarked that many families of corrupt Chinese officials will now have to return to China.

Sources:
Central News Agency (Taiwan), January 8, 2024
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202401080123.aspx

The White House (US), December 11, 2023
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/12/11/a-proclamation-on-suspension-of-entry-as-immigrants-and-nonimmigrants-of-persons-enabling-corruption/

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported that, according to sources familiar with the matter, the U.S. government recently resumed discussions on Trump-Era tariffs imposed on about US$300 billion of Chinese goods.

The Biden administration may raise tariffs on clean energy products. Tariffs on electric vehicles may increase. Chinese electric vehicles already face 25 percent tariffs, which limits the number of vehicles Chinese automakers can export to the United States. Other potential targets for higher tariffs include Chinese solar products and electric vehicle battery packs. The administration may also consider lowering tariffs on Chinese consumer products that officials consider not strategically important.

As China’s domestic economy declines, clean energy commodities are flooding into the global market at low prices. As a result, U.S. officials worry that U.S. companies will not be able to compete with Chinese products, even given the protection of existing tariffs and new subsidies. Some analysts have also pointed out that the United States government is preparing for next year’s presidential election, saying that the U.S. political parties may be motivated to take a tough stance against China in order to win votes.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs commented that “The U.S.’s unilateral increase in tariffs violates the principles of the market economy and fair competition, and it threatens the security of global industrial and supply chains”.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, December 21, 2023
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/world/story20231221-1457395?amp