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PLA Officer Advocates Preemptive Strikes Against U.S. in Event of War

Li Li (李莉), a prominent military commentator and esteemed professor at China’s National Defense University, recently made a bold assertion during a televised discussion. In contemplating the prospect of armed conflict, Li recommended that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) consider a proactive “preemptive” approach, targeting U.S. military installations in Japan as a primary strategic objective.

Li’s perspective can be summarized as follows: “In the event of war, our foremost imperative is to preemptively neutralize U.S. military bases situated in Japan.” In her discourse, Li used the term “American imperialism” to refer to the United States and emphasized that “we will not hesitate like Russia did”. She firmly asserted that “only decisive and swift counteraction can guarantee our nation’s survival and sustained progress. We shall not delay in neutralizing U.S. ‘black’ aircraft carriers and ‘black’ bombers. We shall seize the earliest opportunity to take actions and leave the enemy no chance to breathe.”

Source: Aboluo, September 8, 2023
https://www.aboluowang.com/2023/0908/1951318.html

Briefings | | |   @CS Defense/Military US-China Relations

Huanqiu: Ministry of State Security Commented on the U.S.’ Policies Towards China

Huanqiu published an unexpected commentary by the Ministry of State Security concerning the United States’ policies towards China. Typically, such remarks emanate from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The commentary asserts that while the U.S. has shifted its strategy from the “old two approaches” to the “new two approaches” and claims that it is doomed for failure.

The core excerpt from the commentary reads as follows:

In previous decades, the U.S. adhered to the “old two approaches” regarding China, characterized as “Contact + Containment.” This approach entailed on one hand, engaging China within the international system and fostering cooperation, while concurrently executing covert infiltration and containment strategies against China. This dual-handed approach intricately shaped the complexity that has historically marked Sino-U.S. relations.

In the contemporary geopolitical landscape, the rivalry between the two global powers, the United States and China, has unequivocally become the prevailing theme in international politics. Consequently, Sino-U.S. relations have entered a novel phase, with the U.S. unveiling its “Competition + Control Competition” strategy.

The crux of this strategy lies in “Competition,” constituting the primary thrust of the U.S. approach. It encompasses economic decoupling, political coalition-building, security deterrence, information warfare, and norm/rule setting endeavors. Both the Trump and Biden administrations have been steadfast and increasingly assertive in their pursuit of this approach. Looking ahead, the U.S. may well implement even more formidable “competition” measures, with many yet unseen.

Simultaneously, the U.S. has adopted a discernible “Control Competition” tactic. While “Competition” seeks to stymie China, “Control Competition” seeks to manage this suppression without permitting it to spiral out of control. The Biden administration has repeatedly referenced concepts like “guardrails,” “thresholds,” and “parameters,” transitioning from the notion of “decoupling” to “de-risking,” and vocally committing to the “Four No’s and One Unintentional.” All these actions are aimed at maintaining control over the competitive dynamics. “Competition” constitutes a strategic move, whereas “Controlling Competition” is more tactical and serves as a complementary aspect of the overall competitive strategy.

This shift in strategy reflects three underlying objectives of the U.S. government:

  • Dissemination of Ambiguous Signals: By releasing “mixed signals,” the U.S. aims to obfuscate its intentions and make it challenging for its opponent (China) to decipher and evaluate its actions—a fundamental tactic reminiscent of the Cold War era.
  • Mitigating Overreactions: The U.S. endeavors to forestall any excessive reactions from its opponent by exhibiting “self-restraint,” a strategy that has a historical precedent in the annals of great power politics over the past few centuries.
  • Expanding Channels of Influence: The U.S. seeks to create a “dialog window” to augment avenues for influence, thereby fostering limited cooperation with its opponent.

Source: Huanqiu, September 3, 2023
https://world.huanqiu.com/article/4EOkEEy2R3N

Briefings | | |   @CS US-China Relations

China Disclosed the Espionage Case of John Shing-wan Leung

Chinese authorities accused Chinese-American community leader John Shing-wan Leung (梁成運) of espionage and sentenced him to life imprisonment in May. On September 11, the Ministry of State Security unveiled the details of Leung’s case, claiming he had served as a U.S. spy for 30 years under the guise of a Chinese community leader in the U.S. and a purported “patriotic philanthropist” to China.

Leung, aged 78, was apprehended in China on April 15, 2021 and convicted of espionage by a local court on May 15. His sentence includes life imprisonment, a lifelong deprivation of political rights, and the confiscation of 500,000 RMB (US$ 69,000) in personal assets.

According to a report from the WeChat account of the “Ministry of National State Security,” Leung was born in Hong Kong in 1945 and relocated to the United States in 1983, where he operated a restaurant in a Midwestern city. U.S. intelligence personnel initiated contact with him in 1986 and formally established a cooperation agreement in 1989, recruiting him as an informant. Leung received a monthly payment of $1,000, with additional performance-based bonuses. In the same year, he acquired U.S. citizenship.

The U.S. embellished Leung’s academic credentials in the U.K., his alleged role as a U.N. official, and his purported involvement in the Vietnam War to enhance his profile. Leung was also directed to make donations to American state legislators to bolster his influence.

With financial support from the U.S., Leung held leadership positions in various overseas Chinese organizations, thereby amplifying his sway within the Chinese diaspora. He was tasked with making charitable donations in China, effectively projecting the image of a “patriotic philanthropist.”

Through social gatherings and community events, Leung cultivated close connections with Chinese diplomatic missions and personnel in the U.S., gathering intelligence, and monitoring Chinese nationals and diaspora communities. Whenever he learned of Chinese officials visiting the U.S. for official purposes, he promptly reported them to U.S. intelligence agencies. Following their directives, he would arrange meetings with them in restaurants or hotels equipped with surveillance equipment to collect information, even including setting up sexual traps to coerce those Chinese individuals.

Under the direction of multiple American intelligence operatives, Leung reportedly accumulated a substantial volume of intelligence related to China and assisted U.S. intelligence agencies in fabricating “Chinese spy cases.” He was even bestowed with a “Medal of Merit” by the head of the U.S. intelligence agency.

In 2020, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic and the suspension of international flights, U.S. intelligence agencies urgently required Chinese intelligence. Consequently, they directed Leung to travel to China at the end of 2020, where he actively participated in various social activities to gather intelligence.

The report concludes by advising overseas Chinese individuals who may be “coerced by foreign intelligence organizations” to promptly report their situations to Chinese diplomatic missions or, upon entering China, to inform national state security agencies. Those who demonstrate remorse may be granted leniency in prosecution.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), September 11, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202309110037.aspx

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

China’s Top Computer Server Manufacturer Suffered Major Profit Decline

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDAQ: SINA) recently reported that, with the advent of the artificial intelligence era, the traditional CPU server market has gradually shrunk, and new AI servers have soared. However, Inspur Information is subject to tight supply of GPUs, and it has not been able to jump onto the bandwagon. According to the global server market report for the third quarter of 2022 released by Gartner, Inspur ranked first in China, and second in the world, after Dell, with a global market share of 10.3 percent. However, in the first half of this year, Inspur’s server revenue fell by 29.03 percent year-over-year. Its net profit in the second quarter of this year suffered a year-over-year decrease of 81.46 percent. Inspur explained that its server product revenue was “affected by factors such as the tight supply of global GPUs and related special chips.” With the short supply of AI chips by Nvidia and Intel, the company emphasized that “the raw materials of the domestic server industry are currently mainly imported.” If there are major changes in supply, it will have an impact. Inspur’s server products are highly dependent on upstream chip suppliers. The company’s 2019 annual report showed that Intel and Nvidia are its top two suppliers respectively. Since 2020, Inspur has no longer published information about its main suppliers.

Source: Sina, September 7, 2023
https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2023-09-07/doc-imzkwctn6755618.shtml

Briefings | | |   Information/Technology US-China Relations

People’s Daily: Worsening Homelessness Crisis in the U.S.

An article published by People’s Daily, titled “Homeless Problem in the U.S. Is Getting Worse,” talks about the deteriorating homelessness crisis in the United States. The piece cites several Western media outlets, stating that the number of homeless individuals in the U.S. has surged to 577,000, marking an 11 percent increase from the previous year and the most significant spike since 2007 when records were first maintained. This crisis is particularly pronounced in major U.S. cities, with Los Angeles witnessing a staggering 55 percent rise in homelessness since 2015. In New York, approximately one in every 80 people lacks shelter, and the number of homeless individuals in the city’s shelters has surpassed 100,000.

The article attributes this dire situation to “deeply-rooted social inequality” and the vast wealth disparity between the affluent and the impoverished in the U.S. It criticizes government policies as ineffective, emphasizing that the federal, state, and local governments are merely passing the issue around, engaging in political blame games, and implementing largely symbolic measures.

In conclusion, the article underscores that despite being the world’s most powerful developed nation, the presence of a substantial homeless population living on the streets tarnishes not only the U.S.’s human rights record but also its societal governance and governmental efficacy. It quotes Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz’s assertion that the United States has become a wealthy nation full of poor people.

Source: People’s Daily, September 9, 2023
http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2023/0909/c1002-40073771.html

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

Chinese Scholar: China Is Facing The Worst External Environment in 40 Years

Wang Wen, Executive Director of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China, published an article stating that China is facing the worst external environment in 40 years.

Wang listed three points regarding the international environment:

  1. China’s annual and quarterly economic growth rate became lower than that of the United States, which has not been seen for more than four decades.
  2. There are signs that production and supply chains are moving out of China, also not seen for more than four decades.
  3. The United States has coordinated a political consensus and comprehensive action among Western countries regarding the “China threat,” also not seen for more than four decades.

Wang gave a few strategic prescriptions for easing China’s situation (a nice way of implying that the authorities have made strategically poor decisions):

  1. Reflect on the long-term, difficult, and complex nature of the rise (of China) as a great power. {Editor’s Notes: The author is suggesting that China has not reached the great power that it wants to achieve; it still needs time to continue building up its power.}
  2. Objectively face the basic fact that the U.S., though it will decline, has not yet declined too much.
  3. Objectively face the basic fact that China, though it will surpass the U.S., has not yet surpassed it.
  4. Chinese society needs to mentally prepare for the worst and most dire scenarios to occur.

Source: Sohu, August 27, 2023
https://www.sohu.com/a/715303788_120094090

Briefings | | |   @CS Government/Politics US-China Relations

Global Times: U.S. Restricts AI Chip Exports to Middle East

China’s Global Times recently published a report on social media regarding new U.S. restrictions that prevent technology companies NVIDIA and AMD from exporting advanced AI chips to the Middle East. Analysts say the restrictions are aimed at preventing Middle Eastern countries from reselling the chips to China.

In a recent regulatory filing for its A100 and H100 chips, NVIDIA disclosed that the Biden administration’s new measures will affect exports of those chips. It’s not clear which specific countries are targeted by the new export controls.

In October of last year, the Biden administration announced its implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) chip export controls targeting China. NVIDIA’s A100 and the H100 were restricted, and AMD’s exports were similarly restricted by the U.S. government. Both companies stated that, although the new control measures will affect the export of some products, they will not have a direct and significant impact on the  companies’ business performance.

On the one hand, the U.S. may be concerned about China’s acquisition of advanced AI chips from Middle Eastern countries, especially considering the close relationship some Middle Eastern countries have with China. On the other hand, the U.S. export controls may not be aimed at curbing AI tech acquisition by China alone; they may also be part of U.S. policy targeting Middle Eastern countries specifically.

Compared with the earlier U.S. measures that targeted exports to China specifically, these latest controls targeting Middle Eastern countries have a less-direct impact on China’s AI industry. According to the Global Times report, however, they still reflect the U.S.’s attempt to stifle China’s semiconductor and AI capabilities.

Source: Global Times, August 31, 2023
https://tinyurl.com/mvuph8k7

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend US-China Relations

HKET: Poll Shows 2/3 of U.S. Residents Support Increasing Tariffs on Chinese Goods

Hong Kong Economic Times (HKET), the leading financial daily in Hong Kong, recently reported on a new Reuters-Ipsos poll of U.S. residents showing that about two-thirds of respondents support increased tariffs on Chinese goods. A similar proportion of respondents agreed that Washington should do more to deal with the military threat posed to the U.S. by China.

About half of respondents supported providing military equipment to Taiwan, but only 38 percent supported sending U.S. troops to defend Taiwan if China were to uses force against Taiwan. In terms of U.S.-China relations, 75 percent of respondents held a negative view of China, and about 65 percent believe that the Chinese government is trying to influence the upcoming 2024 U.S. election.

The Reuters-Ipsos poll gathered opinions from more than 1,000 adults across the U.S., including 443 Democrats and 346 Republicans.

Bipartisan concern over relations with China may explain Republican presidential candidates’ increasingly hardline stance on the topic. Many candidates have called for the U.S. to terminate normal trade relations with China. Although President Biden has sought to stabilize the embittered U.S.-China rivalry through high-level diplomatic visits, he has also called the Chinese economy a “time bomb” and has criticized Chinese President Xi Jinping by name at several recent fundraisers.

Source: HKET, August 16, 2023
https://china.hket.com/article/3593364

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations