The whole world has suffered greatly due to the COVID pandemic. The Chinese people may have been the hardest-hit victims, Continue reading
China’s April Manufacturing PMI Declined
According to the official numbers released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, China’s April manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 percent. In terms of the company sizes, the PMIs of large, medium, and small companies are 49.3 percent, 49.2 percent and 49.0percent, respectively – all lower than March. The new orders sub-index was 48.8 percent, a decrease of 4.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the demand in the manufacturing market has dropped. The raw material inventory sub-index was 47.9 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. This continued the decreasing trend. The employment sub-index was 48.8 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month.
In the meantime, Caixin just released its official Chinese Manufacturing PMI numbers for April. Caixin PMI is a well-respected economic indicator monitored globally by financial institutions. Caixin’s China Manufacturing PMI recorded 49.5 for April. With the release of the previous backlog of demand, China’s manufacturing industry returned to a contraction trend in April, reflecting that the recovery of the manufacturing industry is still not solid. Employment is also a prominent problem facing the Chinese economy, especially for young people.
Sources:
(1) National Bureau of Statistics, April 30, 2023
http://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202304/t20230429_1939136.html
(2) Caixin, May 4, 2023
https://pmi.caixin.com/2023-05-04/102042089.html
CNA: China’s Foreign Investment Fell to A Five-year Low Last Year
Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently reported that, as China strengthens its pressure on foreign capital, foreign direct investment in China only reached US$180 billion in 2022, an annual decrease of 48 percent, a new low since 2017. Economists say new investment into China has slowed and will be hard to recover. The outlook for foreign investment in China has become murkier as China revises its anti-espionage law, broadening its scope to potentially cover day-to-day business activities of foreign investors, as well as targeting foreign consulting firms that provide services to multinational corporations. At the same time, growing tensions between China and the United States may also limit investment, and the U.S. government is also preparing to impose new restrictions on U.S. companies investing in China. This may put foreign capital, which can bring innovative ideas and cutting-edge technology to China, at particular risk. The entry of these companies into China is an important channel for China to learn to improve production efficiency and people’s living standards. China’s appeal as a destination for foreign direct investment had waned ahead of recent Chinese pressure on foreign capital, due to China’s clashes with the West over trade, technology, and national security. In the meantime, low-cost manufacturing destinations such as India and Vietnam are growing. Economists say the fragile political environment means foreign capital in China is likely to remain concentrated in only a few big companies willing to maintain or expand existing businesses, especially those eager to tap China’s consumer market, such as McDonald’s and Starbucks.
Source: CNA, May 5, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202305050174.aspx
HK01: China Ranked Lower in World Press Freedom Index
Popular Hong Kong online media HK01 Network recently reported that, May 3 is World Press Freedom Day, and Reporters Without Borders (RSF) released the World Press Freedom Index 2023. Among the 180 countries and regions in the world, Mainland China hit a new low with 179th as the second lowest. Taiwan ranked 35th, up from last year’s 38. Hong Kong ranked 140th. The index is scored based on five indicators including politics, law, economy, society, and security in various regions, and through questionnaires from journalists, scholars, and human rights activists. The total score is obtained by quantifying and counting incidents of journalists and media being violated. Norway ranked first with a score of 95.18, followed by Ireland and Denmark. According to RSF, the bottom three places in this year’s ranking are all Asian countries, namely Vietnam (178th), China (179th) and North Korea (180th). It was the first time China had fallen to such a low ranking since the survey began. Over the past year, the rhetoric and approach of the Beijing government’s propaganda has become closer and closer to that of North Korea. In 2002, RSF released the Press Freedom Index for each region of the world for the first time. Hong Kong was ranked 18th at the time. In the following 21 years, Hong Kong’s ranking suffered a freefall to the 140th today.
Source: HK01, May 4, 2023
https://bit.ly/3AXJjNI
Concerns Over China’s Newly Passed Anti-Espionage Law
China passed a new Anti-Espionage Law on April 26, which will be enforced on July 1. Epoch Times published an article to analyze the law.
Article 4 defined what is counted as espionage activity. Item 3 broadened it to include “activities conducted, or instructed or financed to be conducted by others, by foreign agencies, organizations, and individuals other than spy organizations and their agents, and activities conducted by domestic agencies, organizations, or individuals in collusion with them, to steal, spy, buy, illegally possess state secrets, intelligence, as well as documents, data, information, and items related to national security and interests, or to instigate, induce, coerce, or buy state employees to mutiny.” This opens the door for the government to claim any foreign organization, company, or individual’s action as spy work.
Article 14 defined “No individual or organization may illegally obtain or hold documents, data, information, or items that are state secrets.” Article 38 defines the authority to interpret “state secrets” is vested in the “confidential department of the state, or the confidential departments of a province, autonomous region, or municipality directly under the Central Government.”
The law also gives the law enforcement agency great power in searching and investigation. Article 24 defined that “State security organs when carrying out the counter-espionage task can show their identify card, and then check the identity card of Chinese citizens or foreign personnel, inquire the relevant individuals and organizations, and inspect the accompanying items of any identity-unknown or suspected individual.” Also, Article 26 and 27 defined that with a district-level (lower than a city) approval, the security staff can search individual’s or organization’s electronic equipment, documents, data, materials, and items.
Sources:
1. China’s government site, April 27, 2023
http://www.gov.cn/yaowen/2023-04/27/content_5753385.htm
2. Epoch Times, May 1, 2023
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/23/5/1/n13985487.htm
Local Government Called for the Central Governments to Take Over Their Debts
Some China’s local governments admitted that they could no longer handle their debts and called for central government’s help. The Research Center on Development, Guizhou Province said that Guizhou Province “is unable to effectively resolve the (local debt) problem on its own.” The center made the statement in a report “Study on the Resolution of Local Government Debt,” which pointed out that local debt is a significant and urgent problem, but it is extremely difficult for the local governments to resolve it due to their limited financial capability. The report is unavailable on the Internet now.
Some local governments in Yunnan Province also reported desperate debt situation. By end of 2022, Yongping County’s total debt reached 3.44 billion yuan (US$500 million). Its debt ratio reached 991 percent and fiscal self-sufficiency rate was only 15.66 percent. Tengchong City also claimed financial difficulty where its fiscal capability could just keep the government payroll going.
Source: China News Agency (Taiwan), April 28, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202304280110.aspx
Report: China’s Cost of Childrearing the Second Highest in the World
According to a recent report from Chinese think tank Yicai Research, China ranks second only to South Korea as the most expensive country in the world to raise a child. The cost of raising a child in China to the age of 18 is 6.9 times the country’s per capita GDP, which is twice the cost in Germany and three times the cost in France. China’s low birth rate and the now-abandoned one-child policy have resulted in an impending demographic crisis, with India poised to overtake China as the world’s most populous country this year.
The report recommends that China provides more support to families to improve the country’s low birth rate. The measures suggested include cash and tax subsidies, housing subsidies, increasing the number of daycare centers, offering equal maternity leave for men and women, introducing foreign nannies, promoting flexible work arrangements, protecting the reproductive rights of single women, allowing assisted reproductive technologies, and reforming the school and examination system.
A national survey conducted by the National Health and Family Planning Commission in China in 2017 found that 77.4 percent of women of childbearing age felt that the “economic burden is too heavy” is the primary reason for not wanting to have children, except for “being too old” or “having no one to take care of the child.”
Source: Deutsche Welle, May 1, 2023
https://p.dw.com/p/4QjpI
China Implements New Conscription Regulations
China implemented a revised conscription law as of May 1. It allows for the re-enlistment of retired soldiers and for the conscription of students with high-tech training. According to experts, China’s long-term military preparation is necessary to counter the declining birth rate and prepare for a potential high-tech war. Chen Shih-min, an associate professor at National Taiwan University’s Department of Political Science, stated that manpower is one of the essential resources in warfare. China’s previous one-child policy practice and the high cost of raising children put China into a negative population growth. Facing the conscription difficulty, Beijing tried to revise the relevant laws to bring back retired soldiers. Chen added that a high-tech war requires specialized talent in the field of AI, robotics, and other high-tech areas. Also, conscription should prioritize students with such training. Overall, China is in a state of long-term military preparedness, and any military mobilization serves as a reminder for Taiwan. The Nikkei Asia report directly pointed out that the new conscription law is aimed at the Taiwan Strait conflict.
Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), May 2, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202305020296.aspx