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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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Economy: City Investment Corporations Cannot Pay Their Obligations

In China, many local governments have set up their own investment companies. These companies usually use the land as collateral to get loans from banks to invest or finance the construction of infrastructure projects or government-subsidized housing.

However, due to the collapse of the real estate industry in China, many of these city investment corporations are short of money and some cannot even pay their obligations.

Phoenix Finance reported that in the past year, people buying government-subsidized housing reported the delay (or even failure) of delivery of those houses. This has happened in Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province; Qingdao City, Shandong Province; Zhengzhou City, Henan Province; and Baoding City, Hebei Province.

Chengyang District, Qingdao City, Shandong Province provided an apartment subsidy to attract skilled/talented people to come to the city. On a jointly-owned housing program (government pays a portion to reduce the purchase cost for the talent they are bringing in), the talent paid 1.5 million yuan (US$220,000) but the Chengyang Municipal Investment Group did not pay the government portion of 760,000 yuan, and thus the talent could not get an apartment. (After the Phoenix Report, Chengyang Municipal Investment Group said they had gathered enough money to pay for their dues.)

People pointed out that this showed the government has run out of money. These investment companies cannot raise more money because land is no longer hot property – builders are not willing to buy land from the government (thus paying the land transfer concessions) anymore.

Since November 2021, the number of bonds issued by the city investment corporations that missed the payback on the due date has increased from five per month to around 20 per month.

An unconfirmed report said that to sell their apartments, some city investment corporations assigned quotas to their employees and tied it to their annual reviews.

Source:
1. Phoenix, February 2, 2023
https://fengcx.com/news/detail/56084949.shtml
2. Sohu, February 3, 2023
https://www.sohu.com/a/636924623_100162316
3. Sina, February 4, 2023
https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/zqgd/2023-02-04/doc-imyemynm3699818.shtml

Hot Topics | | |   @CS Economy/Resources Government/Politics

China Lost Its Status as the Largest Trading Partner of the U.S.

Well-known Chinese news site NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES) recently reported that, according to data released by the US Department of Commerce, last year, China lost its position as the largest trading partner of the U.S. It was replaced by the European Union. In 2022, U.S. imports rose sharply, and the foreign trade deficit reached a record high. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. imported $537 billion in products from China in 2022, lower than the U.S. imports of $553 billion from the European Union. However, overall U.S. imports from China increased from the previous year’s $505 billion in 2021. China’s loss of its status as the largest trading nation of the United States has been blamed largely on Covid-19, as well as the diversification of U.S. supply sources. Particularly supplies from other Asian countries have increased. In the meantime, data shows that the trade dependence between China and the United States remains high. In 2022, the total import and export volume of the two countries broke the historic record again after three years, reaching $690.5 billion. During the same period, the U.S. deficit with China expanded by eight percent to $382.9 billion, the second highest in history after 2018. In 2022, U.S. businesses and consumers had strong demand for foreign-made goods and services, and international trade was recovering from the pandemic. China has not benefited significantly from this recovery.

Source: NetEase, February 9, 2023
https://www.163.com/dy/article/HT6175KF0553LKHX.html

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

Around 10,000 Wuhan Retirees Took to the Streets

On February 8, around 10,000 retirees in Wuhan City, Hubei Province gathered at the municipal building to protest the city’s newly published “Employee Medical Reform” plan.

The plan, effective on February 1, will significantly cut the medical insurance benefits of Wuhan’s 2 million retirees. In the past, the government paid each retiree 286 yuan per month for medical spending , but the new plan only pays 83 yuan, a 70 percent cut. The new plan adds a 500 yuan deductible before any insurance payout. It appears that each person can be reimbursed 4,000 yuan a year, but the reality is only 1,300 yuan. Moreover, many medicines are no longer covered by the insurance.

A WeChat discussion showed that people have demanded that the Wuhan Mayor fix the issue by February 8; otherwise they will hold a large gathering on February 15. If there is no resolution by the end of the month, the retirees will demand that the mayor be impeached.

Police came to the site, but didn’t crack down on the protest. There are unofficial reports that the mayor met with the protesters in the afternoon and later on the city put the new plan on hold.

Source: Aboluo, February 8, 2023
https://www.aboluowang.com/2023/0208/1864549.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics Social Stability

LTN: India Again Blocked Nearly 200 Chinese Apps and Websites

Major Taiwanese news network Liberty Times Network (LTN) recently reported that India has ordered the blockade of 232 apps and websites, most of them linked to China. This underscores tensions between the two countries after years of border clashes. According to a source familiar with the matter, the Indian Federal Technology Ministry has ordered the removal of 138 betting and gambling apps and 94 credit services. The order came from the Interior Ministry, which oversees domestic affairs including national security. The source asked not to be identified because the full content of the order has not been made public. The blocked apps, including several from India, are suspected of transferring data to China. India’s central bank has also tightened digital lending regulations after finding some apps allegedly breached norms and harassed customers. Indian domestic laws allow the government to block public access to content for reasons such as national security interests. Last year, India banned multiple Chinese applications such as Alibaba and Tencent’s WeChat. India also banned the use of Tik Tok. In the meantime, India is also moving to restrict Chinese companies in other areas and is considering restricting Chinese cell phone makers from selling devices below 12,000 Rupees, a blow to a number of brands, including Xiaomi.

Source: LTN, February 8, 2023
https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/4204452

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Information/Technology

China’s Marriage Registration Declined for Eight Consecutive Years

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDQ: SINA) recently reported that, in 2021, the number of marriage registrations in China dropped to 7.636 million couples. This meant there had been a decline for eight consecutive years. In addition, the age of each first marriage has been significantly delayed. In 2021, the average age of the first marriage of those in Anhui Province was 31.89 years old for males and 30.73 years old for females. The reasons for the decline in the number of marriages are: first, the decline in the number of young people, second, there are more men and fewer women in the marriageable population, third is the high cost of raising children, fourth is the high cost of marriage, fifth is fierce social competition and employment pressure, and lastly, the younger generation’s perception of marriage has changed. Economists suggested the following to tackle the situation. First, increase the supply of residential land in big cities and provide housing subsidies for families with children; second,reduce the costs of childbirth, childcare, and education; third, establish a social support system that is gender-equal and child-friendly; fourth, relax the conditions for adoption and placement; fifth, lower the legal age of marriage to 18; and sixth, protect single women’s reproductive rights. The suggestion of lowering the legal age of marriage to 18 years old resulted in intense discussions and controversies online, and one time even ranked at the top of the national hot search. Currently, the legal age of marriage in China is 22 for men and 20 for women. It is lower than Japan, the U.S., India, Germany, France, Canada, and even Mexico. The ultra-low birth rate and the rapid shrinkage of the young population have become major challenges facing Chinese society.

Source: Sina, February 8, 2023
https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/smjj/smdt/2023-02-08/doc-imyeyxpn6454987.shtml?cref=cj

Briefings | | |   Social Stability

Economy: Jiangsu City Coerced Government Employees into Paying 2.5 Billion Yuan in Fines

As many local governments run out of money, one city in Jiangsu Province came up with a creative way to get more money: to impose a hefty fine on those government employees who have taken a part-time secondary job. The city sent special “working groups” to each government unit to check any government employee who “illegally” took on a secondary job. They targeted those people who have skills (so that they were able to get a secondary job), who do not have connections with higher-powers, and who want to have a smooth retirement. Those employees didn’t think it would be a big fine so they co-oporated with the investigation. Then the government fined them from 600,000 yuan (US$ 88,000) to 1 million yuan (US$ 147,000). Many of them depleted their own savings and some even had to borrow money to make the payment.

The city raised 2.5 billion yuan (US $367 million) by using this approach.

Source: Sound of Hope, February 8, 2023
https://www.soundofhope.org/post/694290

Hot Topics | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics

The CCP Is Effective in Its International Propaganda Efforts

James Sheen (沈榮欽), is Assistant Professor at York University, Toronto, Canada and an Adjunct Assistant Professor at National Chengchi University, Taiwan. He posted on Facebook that research showed that the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) propaganda against the international audience is very effective.

He said some scholars from Yale University and Harvard University conducted some multi-country research to compare the international propaganda of China with the information from the U.S. Of course, the U.S. promotes democracy and China promotes an authoritarian system.

The researchers sampled 19 countries across six continents, ranging from dictatorships and semi-democracies, to democratic countries, with low, medium, and high incomes. On average, after being exposed to the CCP’s propaganda, people who think that China’s authoritarian system is better than the U.S. democratic system has tripled from 16 percent to 54 percent. The percentage is even higher in Africa and Latin America where the CCP has  focused many of ts diplomacy activities. The U.S. propaganda has had a much smaller influence on people.

Source: Facebook, Posting by James Sheen
https://www.facebook.com/Independent.think/posts/10226251784754625

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

China Plans to Carry out Many “Work for Food” Programs

On January 10, China’s National Development and Reform Commission promulgated a newly revised “Management Measures of the National Work for Food Program.” The measure will be implemented on March 1, 2023. People’s Daily published the question and answers that occurred in an interview between an official from the National Development and Reform Commission and reporters.

The program is to ask people to perform labor (for which they will be paid) instead of simply receiving government welfare. It states, “If manual labor can be used then do not use a machine; if work can be done by local people (on welfare) then do not use professional teams.”

To encourage local governments and business entities to offer more “Work for Food” projects, the central government will increase its subsidy from 15 percent of the labor cost to 30 percent.

[Editor’s Notes: Promoting such programs may mean Beijing wants to  manage its welfare system more effectively. It may also indicate: one, that Beijing may need to provide more social welfare to its people; and two, Beijing may be running low on money so it uses the welfare money (which it has to pay anyway) to cover projects that it would need to pay for with money from other sources.]

Source: People’s Daily, February 1, 2023
http://politics.people.com.cn/n1/2023/0201/c1001-32616015.html

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics Social Stability