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Qiao Liang: The U.S. is “Containing China by Agents”

Xinhua recently published a series of discussions by China scholars, the armed forces, and think tanks on international issues. Qiao Liang, an Admiral, a professor at the Air Force Command College, and Vice Secretary General of the government think tank National Security Policy Reseach Commission, reportedly talked about the U.S. containment of China.

“As the U.S. is declining and its power is weakening, power vacuums have emgerged in the international arena. The U.S. wants us to fill some of the vacuums, but not all. In places where the Americans do not want us to fill the power vacuum, they will create some powers to fill it. I call it ‘containment by agent’. … In issues like the South China Sea and the Sino-Indian border, the Americans roped in India and the Southeast Asian countries to produce a possibility of ‘containment by agent.’ As Americans have engaged in proxy wars in the past, I expect that the U.S. will use agents to contain China.

Source: Xinhua, February 2, 2010
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2010-02/02/content_12920311.htm

Scholar: China to Protest U.S. with Reduced Cooperation

Jin Chanrong, Vice Dean of the School of International Relations of the People’s University of China, told Global Times, “An unusually tough attitude from China will send the U.S. a clear message of the bottom line. The powers of China and the U.S. are close to a balance. Different from the past, it’s no longer viable for the United States to use the old ways to deal with China.” Jin added, “It’s possible that China may reduce cooperation on certain international issues as a protest.”

“The West blames the current gridlock in the Sino-U.S. relationship on China’s over-confidence. However, it’s impossible for China to give in on the Taiwan arms sale and the U.S. President’s meeting with the Dalai Lama, issues that matter for its sovereignty, and core interests. If our leaders were to meet with a U.S. separatist and sell arms to a U.S. state that claims independence, the U.S. would have an even stronger reaction.”

Source: Global Times, February 4, 2010
http://world.huanqiu.com/roll/2010-02/709404.html

How to Maintain the Party’s Centralized Unification

The "Decision" emphasizes the importance of actively and positively developing inner-party democracy. At the same time, it puts forward new requirements and major initiatives on how to maintain the party’s centralized unification. It emphasizes that all comrades of the party must always put the party and the people in the highest position in their minds and maintain a high degree of unity with the party’s Central Committee mentally, politically, and physically. This has great significance under the new circumstances to better adhere to the democratic centralism system, which is the fundamental organizational and leadership system, and to strengthen and improve the party’s leadership.

To maintain the party’s centralized unification, the following must be done practically:
   
First, to fully understand the importance of protecting the party’s centralized unification. The party’s centralized unification represents the fundamental interests of all ethnic groups in the nation. … For a ruling political party that has more than 75 million members, 3.7 million grass-roots organizations, and that is leading the great cause of building socialism with Chinese characteristics, it is essential to maintain the party’s centralized unification. Only by protecting the Party’s centralized unification and continuously enhancing the party’s creativity, cohesion, and combat capability, can it ensure national unity, racial peace, and social harmony, and ensure the smooth execution of the process of Reform and Opening up and modernization.
 
Second, to maintain a high degree of unity on party ideology. Thoughts lead actions, and thus unity on ideology is the premise of the party’s centralized unification. One must persist in using Marxism-Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory and the "Three Represents" to equip and educate the party and use the scientific development concept to equip the minds of the party members and cadres, so that all party comrades will be on a common ideological ground when thinking, making decisions, or taking action. One must frequently educate the party members on the party’s principles and policies, to strive to make sure party members and cadres at all levels deeply understand and grasp the spiritual essence of the party’s principles and policies, and to become the loyal enforcers and active advocates of the party’s principles and policies. In this way, a reliable ideology will guarantee the party’s centralized unification.

Third, to resolutely maintain the central authority. The Central Committee is the core of the party’s centralized unification. Maintaining the party’s centralized unification means to resolutely maintain the central authority and to effectively ensure the central committee’s decrees. One must insist that individual members subordinate to the party’s organization, the minority subordinates to the majority, the lower-level organizations subordinate to the upper-level organization, and party organizations and all party members subordinate to the party’s national congress and the Central Committee. Among all, the most important thing is that the whole party subordinate to the central authorities. The entire party must be in unity with the Central Committee on guiding ideology, goals, major policies and important work arrangements. No matter which area, which department, or what party organization, no matter what kind of leadership positions the party members and cadres hold, all must conscientiously uphold the party’s basic theory, basic policy, basic program, and basic experience, and resolutely subordinate to the unified leadership of the Central Committee. It is necessary to establish an inspection and evaluation system on a regular time basis on the implementation of significant policies from the Central Committee, monitor special projects, and improve the discipline mechanism, improve the leading cadres’ execution ability and firmly ensure that the principles and policies of the central authority can be carried out.

Fourth, to strictly adhere to the party’s discipline rules, especially the political discipline rules. Having good discipline is the guarantee for maintaining the party’s centralized unification. Our party is a Marxist political party relying on revolutionary ideas and is organized by iron discipline. Only by having strict discipline, can we move forward at the same pace. Political discipline is the most important discipline in the party. The whole party must strictly obey this discipline, consciously enforce it, and fight resolutely against any breach of the party’s political discipline. When a party member has different opinions about the party’s resolutions and policies, the party member first needs to resolutely carry out these resolutions and policies, and, at the same time, bring the issue to the upper organization, and even to the Central Committee. But no one is allowed to make the issue public and to spread any opinion that is contrary to what the central authority holds. One must firmly oppose being two-faced, showing things in one way, and doing things in another way. It is not allowed to fabricate and spread political rumors and words to smear the image of the party and the nation. One must resolutely rectify the phenomenon that orders or prohibitions are not carried out. Any violation of the party’s political discipline must be dealt with severely.

Endnote:
[1] Xinhua, December 30, 2009
http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2009-11/30/content_12563503.htm

Xinhua: New Observations of Western Media on the Chinese Military

Starting January 2010, Xinhua will publish a new column called "Foreign Media on the Chinese Military," with a listing of articles from Western media. The column is meant to show how foreign media report the Chinese military and the focus of such reports. For January 2010, Xinhua has identified 6 topic-areas of foreign reports about the Chinese military: U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, China anti-missile tests, U.S.-China military ties, the China-India defense dialogue, Chinese space program, and F-11 equipment.

Source: Xinhua, February 1, 2010.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2010-02/01/content_12898530.htm

Xinhua Reports on Russian Arms Sales to Vietnam

Citing a U.S. Defense News website, Xinhua reports that Vietnam is now officially Russia’s biggest arms client due to recent orders for six Kilo-class submarines and 12 Su-30 fighter jets, according to a Moscow-based think tank. Vietnam’s deal for its first submarines is Russia’s second-biggest contract for subs in the post-Soviet period, after a 2002 contract with China for eight submarines, said the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies that monitors Russian military exports. Now Vietnam joins the top 5 clients of Russian arms sales. The other 4 are India, Algeria, Venezuela, and China.

Source: Xinhua, Janaury 25, 2010
http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2010-01/25/content_12868679.htm

Xinhua: 2010 Security Situation for China Complex

Xinhua reports that a Chinese military commentator predicts the continuing trend of China’s rise and gain in international influence in 2010. Peng Guangqian also predicts that the national security environment for China will continue to improve. He states, if the security situation in 2009 was “difficult,” the security situation in 2010 will be “complex,” notably, “diversified, varied, complex and uncertain.”

Source: Xinhua, January 29, 2010
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2010-01/29/content_12898656.htm

Dai Xu on China’s Military Strategy

The U.S. Suppresses China [2]

The U.S. has surrounded our country on two sides, which are two segments of one line. One segment is the circle over the sea. The sea circle starts at Japan.”

Continuing from the Japanese islands, the next important point in the circle is Taiwan… We cannot take the problem of Taiwan Island lightly. As long as it does not come back (to China), it will remain a problem for us.”

After Taiwan, the ending point of the sea circle is the South China Sea. I would say that (about the territory dispute of the South China Sea), either (other countries) take all and we completely lose, or we take everything and they have nothing. There is no win-win situation. The situation in that place is different from other situations. The issue of territory cannot be negotiated…”

“To the west of the South China Sea is India… (India has blocked China) from the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea. Thus, from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean, the two gates are basically closed. The U.S. is the gate closer.”

“During the Cold War era, there was only one sea circle. It was called a “Crescent Surrounding” at that time. It was like the crescent moon, a very small circle. However, it is different now. That is to say, the circle in the ocean stops at India. The circle on the land starts with India. Therefore, the circle on the land extends from the circle in the sea. From India, it goes to the west, then to the north, and then to the east.”

“After India, it is Pakistan (on the land circle). Recently, the situation in Pakistan has been very severe. Not only is the Pakistan military battling with the Taliban; the U.S.’ military action in Pakistan has basically surpassed those in Afghanistan. They are battling in the Southwest of Pakistan, where it is close to the Indian Ocean… There is a sea port on the Indian Ocean called Gwadar Port, which was built by our Chinese.”

That is why on May 9, 2009, an American wrote an article saying, “Why do we have to battle in this place? It is to try our best to force China, who built the Gwadar Port and needs the natural gas from Iran, to withdraw from that place…” Therefore, I think that the U.S. is actually fighting against China behind the scenes, while fighting with the Taliban on the surface. Thus, in that place, many of our enterprises have been driven out. We have withdrawn all the construction projects there. We can do nothing at present. Therefore, the U.S. military action in that area (having achieved its goal) has basically stopped. That is actually a U.S. action against the mainland.”

From the mainland to the ocean, the U.S. has also laid down an Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) network… The network was laid by the U.S. around China from the Korean Peninsula all the way to India. The U.S.’ ABM system circle in the ocean is connected by the Aegis Shield Warship with ABM capabilities. From the ocean to the mainland, it forms a C-shaped circle… This ABM system is to stop missiles from China, and not allow missiles to be launched from China’s territory.”

Another point is the U.S. strategy towards China, which is comprehensive. The U.S. occupation of China includes economic deprivation, surrounding China, militarily suppression, political pressure, attacking China from both inside and outside, continuous interference, and a trade blockade. The overall goal of the U.S. for China is as follows. The U.S. has created Japan after the model of a eunuch. Now it wants to shape China after Japan, which is rich but not strong. If China insists on independence and protecting its national pride, the U.S. will employ all kinds of means to suppress China, including instigating wars between China and its neighboring countries, direct military interference, and even eventually dividing China.

After the war between China and the U.S. in 1951, the CIA of the U.S. issued an injunction. At first, it was not called an injunction. It was about how to use state-level action to divide and destroy China from all sorts of aspects, levels, and angles. They wrote 10 approaches… 1. Try the best to seduce and degenerate the younger generation using material enticement. Encourage them to oppose their education. Create interests and opportunities for them to be lustful (This is very clear to our friends in Shenzhen). Make them not to feel ashamed of their vanity. 2. Try the best to make them long for the lifestyle of the Americans. 3. Make them focus on sports, pornography, indulgent games, crime movies, religion and superstition. In addition, create something boring and silly every now and then for their people to discuss openly, and then plant the seeds of separation in the backs of their minds. 4. Find opportunities, particularly in the ethnic minority groups, to separate the country, separate the ethnic groups, separate their feelings, and instigate old and new resentment and hatred among themselves. That is a strategy that cannot be ignored. 5. Create derogatory images of their leaders. 6. Promote democracy, that is, make them trust the U.S. 7. Try the best to encourage their government to spend money, and encourage them to borrow money from the U.S. Thus, we would have the full confidence to destroy their credit… 8. Ruin their industries using our economic and technical advantages. As long as their industries can be paralyzed without even realizing it, we can encourage turmoil in society. Therefore, on the surface, we should help them very compassionately. Thus, their government will appear soft and a soft government may have greater turmoil. 9. The next step is to destroy its value system. 10. Last, secretly ship different kinds of weapons to arm some of (China’s) enemies and people who might become their enemies. That is the big circle surrounding us that I mentioned above. The U.S. not only provides weapons to all the countries in the circle, but it also forms alliances with them, may it be a factual, open or invisible alliance.”

“Therefore the Rand Corporation offered a suggestion to the U.S. government in 1999 that the U.S. strategy toward China should be carried out in three steps. First, westernize and divide China by making China have western ideology. That is to make China rich but not strong and not confrontational toward others. Second, if the first step does not have an obvious effect, then comprehensively suppress China and form a strategic joint surrounding of China… If neither of the first two steps works, then have a war with China. Of course, the best format for the war is that the U.S. does not directly participate in the war. The U.S. can support the regions in China that seek independence or the neighboring countries that have major conflicts with China or instigate riots inside China.. That explains why there was the March 14 incident last year (2008 in Tibet) and why there was the July 5 incident this year (2009 in Xinjiang). There will be other incidents down the road.”

“In addition to surrounding China geologically, the U.S. has other conspiracies including economic manipulation and U.S. Dollar traps, etc. …”

At the same time, the U.S. has been working inside China to organize and support all anti-China forces. As a matter of fact, we all know those anti-China forces. Actually, the U.S. is the general sponsor for all the forces that are hostile to China. However, the problem is that those forces are now cooperating with each other. They used to work separately. The situation is different now. Therefore, Dalai contacted Rebiya Kadeer when he created the March 14 incident, and Rebiya contacted Dalai after she caused the Xinjiang incident. They stood together again… Dalai is connected to Democracy activist Wei Jingsheng and the Democratic Progressive Party. At the same time (the U.S.) has set up a great number of spies inside China (in many major economic offices and academic organizations). Many of our academic organizations have researchers working for them or serving as visiting professors and conducting academic exchanges. Those professors take advantage of their own reputations to spread notions that serve the U.S.

The last one is that the U.S. has led the world to create mob-like trade attacks on China. After Obama declared a sanction against China in September, 55 countries sued us within just a few days and started anti-dumping actions. This was said by an American. He said, “Right now, the countries in the world are forming alliances to initiate mob-like counter attacks against China, using the regulations of the WTO.”

China Faces Wars

My point is that (in the next 10 years China) has the possibility of facing wars, and not just a single war…

Eventually, China may face a war. Why? There are several reasons. First, the U.S. is a country with a comprehensive military industry. A third of the U.S. enterprises engage in producing military products…Who would want military products if there were no wars? Therefore, the U.S. has wars everywhere and creates wars everywhere. The U.S. propels its industrial development and technology advancement through having wars.

The second reason that we cannot avoid war is that war always follows fortune. That is the law of the world economy. Thus, we have seen three major shifts of fortune in the 20th century. The first one is before the 1950s. Europe became the center of fortune for the world. Therefore, two world wars broke out in that place. The second shift happened during 1970-80. The oil in the Mideast became the West’s lifeline. Hence, from then on, the Mideast had 5 major wars in 20 years. By now, fortune has had its third shift, to the Asia-Pacific region, and to China, the center of the fortune of the world. How can China escape the disaster of war?

The third reason that we cannot escape from war is that economic crises generally lead to war. WWI was caused by the economic crisis in England. WWII was associated with the economic crisis in the U.S. in 1929… A crisis happened again in 2009 and the Rand Corporation has claimed that instead of spending $700 billion to rescue the economy, it would have been better to spend that money on a war. Therefore, for the U.S., the issue is not whether to have a war, but where to have the war and who to fight. In my opinion, currently, China is facing the danger of being divided (after a war)…

The Military Strategy for China

“Why can’t the GDP be a measure for being a superpower? Why historically was China defeated, even though at that time it had such a high GDP?  That is because the composition of our GDP is problematic… Now, China has the second largest GDP in the world, but what components are in the second largest GDP? The GDP in Japan and the U.S. consist of traditional and modern industries including manufacturing, electronics, ship building, aviation and aeronautics, automotive, and so on. However, ours are real estate, toys, liquor, and cigarettes. Eight hundred million pairs of pants to exchange for an airplane. It was proven over 100 years ago that GDP is not a good measure. Using this thing, we can only deceive ourselves and our people but not others. Being fat does not mean being strong; weight does not equal strength.” [3]

“I suggest that our military forces should have the eagle striking strategy, to fight the battle outside… I said that we should have the war 2,500 miles away (from our mainland). I resolutely insist that our first military ability should be to provide 2,000 – 2,500 miles of defensive depth. Because we do not have allies, aircraft carriers, or strategic pivots, what should we do? The task falls on our air force. We should start the war far beyond 2,500 miles. If anyone has the thought of hurting us, we should kill him first…” [2]

“I have not got to the point of the vertical direction. On this direction, we should close out the open window on our country (as China is weak in defending its air and space). In the future, the war will start from above. Therefore, I said that we should develop upward to the sky perpendicularly and develop to the direction of the ocean horizontally. We definitely cannot let the threat come from these two directions. That is why I resolutely insist that our military reform should clearly focus on these directions, stepping towards the ocean and the sky. We should not waste our resources on the land and continue to that direction. The reason is that our coastal areas are the places where fortune concentrates, the heart of the country, and we cannot afford to let them be threatened by any countries.” [2]

“(As for the South China Sea), at present, the countries around us have over 1,100 oil wells but we do not have even a single one. Why? Personally, I think it is because we take awareness of marine territory too lightly. It is the territory of our country. Whether to explore the resources in this area should not just be based on direct economic benefits. It should be considered from the perspective of the safety of the territory of our nation’s land and sea. It has strategic implications.” [4]

“Even though it may have a high cost, and even if it costs more than buying oil, we still should explore the natural resources there. Also, even if the cost is high, it is temporary. In the long run, once it reaches a large scale, the cost may no longer be high… Therefore, in this place, if we have oil wells, we can use them to develop fishing industry, tourism, etc. All those aspects can form a large economic circle. In addition, those places are close to Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao. Once we use them as a large resource base, the whole ecological environment will change.” [4]

“Therefore, the foremost and the most critical thing is to take actual action. By now, those small neighboring countries have constructed airports in places they have occupied. However, we can only send small ships, but not large ships, because we do not have the base. We should construct a large base there. The base should be able to support large helicopters. With future development and expansion, it should support small or mid-sized airplanes. Also, the navy should construct some deep-water ports so that large warships and large commodity and fishing ships can port. Thus, it can provide all kinds of services to the oil companies and large fishing companies.” [4]

Endnotes:
[1] Dai Xu’s Personal Blog
http://blog.people.com.cn/blog/s/48177
[2] “U.S. Strategy, China Crisis” (Dai Xu’s Speech at Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province)
http://club.backchina.com/main/viewthread.php?tid=813084&extra= 
[3] Speech at the Global Times, “The Strategic Challenges for China in the Next Ten Years”
http://blog.people.com.cn/blog/c9/s48177,w1252941371916731
[4] 22 Degree Observation, “How Should China Respond to the Escalation in South China Sea?”
http://blog.people.com.cn/blog/c9/s48177,w1251214874128521

China Changing the Rules of the Dalai Lama Game

The Sino-US conflict has reached new heights, with the “Dalai Lama issue” escalating into more than just a squirmish between the two countries, according to the Global Times. The Global Times article suggested that any meeting between the American President Obama and the Dalai Lama this month would draw attention to and emphasize the Western and Chinese ideological point of view.  

The paper quotes expert opinions, "It could be the last straw that collapses the Sino-US relationship, or Obama might “take it easy” and return to the Sino-US relationship after making his point of  “not yielding to China.”  


Whatever the cause of Obama giving China the cold shoulder, China is putting its foot down and won’t return to business as is. China is in the process of changing the rules of the game. In the past, China gave only lip service, unsupported by actual action, when the U.S. sold weapons to Taiwan and met with the Dalai Lama. This time China is truly protesting and taking countermeasures.

Source: Global Times, February 3, 2010
http://world.huanqiu.com/roll/2010-02/708072.html