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China’s Reaction to Trump’s Election Win

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Xinhua Commentary Series: Spotlight on the U.S. Presidential Election

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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Pandemic: Chinese Doctors Found Zero Severe Illness Cases for Young People Catching Omicron

On June 18, China CDC Weekly published a research paper by Zhang Wenhong, the leading medical expert from the Shanghai COVID control and prevention group. This research looked at 33,816 omicron infected patients who, between March 22 and May 3, started with light COVID symptoms. A total of 22 patients, all in the high-risk group, had developed a serious illness. That represents 0.065 percent of the total population, or 0.238 percent of the high-risk population. No person, or zero percent, in the low-risk group had a serious illness. The high-risk group is defined as people who were over 60 or had underlying diseases such as a cardiovascular disease (including hypertension), chronic lung disease, diabetes, chronic liver disease, kidney disease, a tumor, or immune deficiency.

With the data showing a low health impact from the Omicron virus, people might question the validity of the governments’ “Zero-COVID” and lockdown policy.

Source: Sina, June 19, 2022
https://finance.sina.com.cn/wm/2022-06-19/doc-imizirau9431070.shtml

Hot Topics | | |   Social Stability

Pandemic: WHO Director-General Privately Said COVID Virus Was Leaked from China’s Lab

The British media The Daily Mail reported that Director-general Tedros Adhanom of the World Health Organization (WHO) had recently confided to a senior European politician that the most likely explanation for the origin of the COVID virus was a catastrophic accident at a laboratory in Wuhan, from which the infections first spread during late 2019. Officially, Dr. Tedros said that, “We do not yet have the answers as to where it came from or how it entered the human population.”

Some of the Western intelligence services questioned that the Wuhan Institute of Virology had been doing research with the virus and leaked it.

Source: Daily Mail, June 18, 2022
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10930501/WHO-chief-believes-Covid-DID-leak-Wuhan-lab-catastrophic-accident-2019.html

Hot Topics | | |   Government/Politics Social Stability

Under Xi Jinping, the Number of Chinese Asylum-seekers Is Increasing. Despite COVID

Figures released by the United Nations’ refugee agency UNHCR showed that around 12,000 Chinese nationals sought asylum overseas in 2012, the year that Xi took office as CCP general secretary. By 2021 that number rose to nearly 120,000.

According to the release of Safeguard Defenders, a human rights NGO based in Madrid, Spain, “By 2019, that figure surpassed 100,000, and despite travel restrictions both in China and worldwide, it continued to increase in both 2020 and 2021. Last year, that figure reached nearly 120,000 people. That is ten times the number of asylum seekers the year Xi came to power.”

“In one year of Xi Jinping’s rule, 2021, China had more asylum-seekers than during the last eight years of the rule of his predecessor Hu Jintao.”

“In fact, since 2012 China has seen some 730,000 people seek asylum. Another 170,000+ persons are living outside of China under refugee status. The number of refugees has held steady for a long time (Many of them are Tibetans living in India).”

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), June 18, 2022
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202206180103.aspx

Briefings | | |   Social Stability

China Further Tightens Online Censorship, Mandating Real Name Commenting

The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC), recently issued a draft version of the “Internet commenting service management regulations.” The country’s top Internet authority mandates that providers of commenting services shall authenticate the real identity of registered users and shall not provide commenting services to users who have not provided real identity information. The “comment service” refers to the Internet platforms that, by means of posting, reply, messaging and other means, provide users the ability to publish text, symbols, expressions, pictures, audio and video information.

CAC also requires service providers to establish mechanisms to review postings, conduct real-time inspections, and launch emergency responses. The online postings have to be reviewed before being published. Any “illegal and undesirable information” are to be detected, in a timely manner, processed, and reported to the Internet authorities.

CAC also proposed that the service provider establish a user grading system, which conducts a credit assessment of the user’s commenting behavior. Users with serious violations will be blacklisted, deprived of services, and prohibited from re-registering to use commenting services.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), June 18, 2022
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202206180106.aspx

Briefings | | |   Information/Technology

Multinational Corporations Have a Crisis of Confidence in China

The French newspaper Les Échos published an analysis on Multinational companies’ crisis of confidence in China, focusing on the business community’s shock at  the brutal closure of Shanghai. They have been forced to re-evaluate the “China risk” including factors such as the zero-Covid policy, the war in Ukraine and tensions between the US and China.

The analysis says that the closure, as well as the broader disruptions caused by China’s zero-Covid policy, translate into huge economic costs. Foreign companies have massively reduced their forecasts. According to data from the European Union Chamber of Commerce, as of April, 60 percent of European subsidiaries had lowered their business targets for 2022. Production could be suspended at any time, with the epidemic and China’s draconian Covid prevention policies becoming a sword of Damocles hanging over these companies. According to a survey by the French Chamber of Commerce and Industry in China, 80 percent of French subsidiaries said that China’s zero-Covid policy is affecting their investment strategy, with 76 percent believing China’s image has deteriorated.

Geopolitics and the growing competition between the U.S. and China are other major long-term factors. Trade wars have complicated the business of multinational companies in China. The war between Russia and Ukraine has abruptly posed new risks. The potential consequences of Beijing’s possible attack on Taiwan could be even greater than that of Western companies’ retreat from Russia. In addition, companies are weighing the effect of the rise of local competitors, increased regulatory restrictions and the reputational risk of doing business in China due to Western condemnation of issues such as Xinjiang and Hong Kong. Many factors are prompting these companies to reassess their long term “China risk.”

Source: Radio France International, June 21, 2022
https://rfi.my/8WHA

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

China Again Fell to the Third Largest Trading Partner Position of the U.S.

Well-known Chinese news site NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES) recently reported that, in the first four months of this year, the largest trading partner of the United States was Canada, with a bilateral trade volume of US$258.5 billion. Mexico also surpassed China to become the second largest trading partner of the United States, with a bilateral trade volume of $249.8 billion. China fell to the third position, with the total bilateral trade volume of US$241.1 billion. The primary reason for the US-China trade decline is that, in April, U.S. exports to China fell by $1.6 billion, and imports from China fell by $10.1 billion. An important reason for the continued rise in total U.S. trade is that inflation is going global, driving up the prices of imported goods. As we all know, inflation in the United States is very serious at the moment.The inflation rate has reached its highest level in 40 years. Consumer prices have continued to rise, especially gas prices. Thus the U.S. government has been heavily criticized. The U.S. Federal Reserve has already acted and raised interest rates. At present, the U.S. dollar is relatively strong and the currencies of many countries have depreciated, which will help promote U.S. imports. As the world’s factory, China has been the world’s largest trading country for many years. Last year’s total import and export trade volume exceeded US$6 trillion. The United States is China’s largest trading partner.

Source: NetEase, June 9, 2022
https://www.163.com/dy/article/H9DP12BI0519TG73.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources US-China Relations

Japan Plans to Establish a New “Integrated Commander” Position

Well-known Chinese news site Sohu (NASDAQ: SOHU) recently reported that relevant sources in the Japanese government revealed that the Ministry of Defense of Japan has generally decided to establish an “integrated commander” to unify the land, sea and Air Self-Defense Forces, as well as an “integrated command” to support the new position. Regarding the motives for the Japanese Ministry of Defense to make this move, Kyodo News said that the Ministry was mainly considering China’s increased maritime activities and new security areas like space, computer networks, and electromagnetic waves, and other areas. Therefore, Japan believed that there is a necessity to have a new dedicated position to improve mobility. Before the end of the year, the Japanese government will revise defense documents such as the National Security Strategy,” the Defense Plan Outline, and the Mid-term Defense Capacity Improvement Plan.  Various branches of the government are coordinating the updates to include the creation of the “integrated commander” in these official documents.

Source: Sohu, June 8, 2022
https://www.sohu.com/a/555167675_114911

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Global Times: India and EU to Resume Free Trade Agreement Talks This Month

Global Times recently reported that India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry said India and the European Union will resume free trade agreement negotiations, which have been stalled for nine years. The first round of negotiations between the two sides is scheduled to start in New Delhi on June 27. For India, this will be one of its most important free trade agreements as the EU is its second largest trading partner after the United States. Between 2021 and 2022, India’s merchandise trade with the EU reached a record high of US$116.36 billion, up 43.5 percent year-over-year. India’s exports to the EU are expected to grow 57 percent to US$65 billion in Fiscal Year 2021-2022. India is currently the EU’s tenth largest trading partner. Before Brexit, an EU study showed that a free trade deal with India would bring benefits worth US$10 billion. Negotiations on a free trade agreement between India and the EU began in 2007, but they were shelved in 2013 due to differences over issues like tariffs on cars and wine. In April this year, the European Commission President Von der Leyen Von der Leyen visited India, and Indian President Narendra Modi also visited Europe in May. The two leaders settled on the roadmap for the negotiation.

Source: Global Times, June 18, 2022
https://world.huanqiu.com/article/48TbaJjAZtw

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend