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China’s Reaction to Trump’s Election Win

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Xinhua Commentary Series: Spotlight on the U.S. Presidential Election

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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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China Is Quickly Building up Its Nuclear Warheads

A Pentagon report estimated that China currently has 200 nuclear weapons and predicted that it will increase the count five-fold, to 1,000, by 2030.

Peter Pry, Executive Director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security and Director of the U.S. Nuclear Strategy Forum, Center for Security Policy, estimated a much higher number. In an interview with the Epoch TV, he stated that, according to the speed with which China builds new Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) and launching sites, and its speed in manufacturing uranium, China’s nuclear warheads will be around 4,000 by 2030.

Source: Epoch Times, April 20, 2022
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/22/4/20/n13715671.htm

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

Former China’s Central Banker: It is Possible for the RMB to Replace SWIFT

Zhou Xiaochuan, former head of China’s Central Bank, the People’s Bank, said that it is possible for the Renminbi (RMB) to replace the SWIFT system.

Zhou made such statement at Qinghua University’s 2022 Global Finance Forum on April 14. Zhou expressed that SWIFT is not a cross-border international payment system, but rather a communications organization. The RMB’s Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) is a payment, clearing, and settlement system.

Zhou stated that circumventing SWIFT is theoretically feasible. Trade is the foundation and in the worst case scenario, people can conduct trade by exchanging goods for goods (instead of using currency).

Source: Net Ease, April 17, 2022
https://www.163.com/money/article/H557RS8M002580S6.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources US-China Relations

China’s Ministry of Commerce: Companies Should Not Condemn Russia under Pressure

Russian news agency Sputnik reported that China’s Ministry of Commerce asked Chinese companies not to yield to the pressure to condemn Russia.

At the ministry’s press conference on April 14, a media reporter asked the Ministry spokesperson Su Jueting, “According to some China companies, some of their foreign business partners have asked them to state their opposition to Russia’s military actions against Ukraine. Otherwise their normal business cooperation will be affected. Do you want to say something?”

Su responded, “Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began, some countries have imposed a series of sanctions on Russia. This has disrupted the normal economic and trade relationship between China and Russia. Some foreign companies have violated the normal market principles and threatened Chinese enterprises to pick a side. Here, we reiterate that China always firmly opposes unilateral sanctions and ‘long-arm jurisdictions’ that have no basis in international law and are not authorized by the United Nations’ Security Council. China also opposes undue bans or restrictions on normal economic and trade activities between Chinese enterprises and those of other countries.”

Su also stressed that, according to the Foreign Trade Law and other relevant laws and regulations, in order to maintain a fair and free foreign trade order, companies and individuals must not succumb to external coercion or to make improper statements. China will take necessary measures to firmly protect Chinese enterprises’ legitimate rights and interests.

Source: Sputnik, April 14, 2022
https://big5.sputniknews.cn/20220414/1040683843.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Geo-Strategic Trend

China Blocks Lyrics of its own National Anthem

The lockdown of the city of Shanghai has given rise to a great deal of public discontent. Many people are using social media to express their frustration due to the shortage of supplies and the dysfunction of Chinese government. The popular microblogging platform Weibo has blocked several trending topics related to this issue over the past few days, including even the first line of China’s national anthem,  March of the Voluntary Army, which reads “Rise up, people who do not want to be slaves.”

It is not the first time Beijing have blocked content from the national anthem. The death of Dr. Li Wenliang, the “whistle blower” at the beginning of the Wuhan outbreak in 2020, triggered outrage among netizens against the authorities. At the time, the same anthem lyrics were blocked for “containing radical current affairs or ideology.”

Western observers and journalists are caught between laughter and tears over the Chinese censors’ move.

Tim Culpan,a Bloomberg journalist tweeted, “Patriotism in China is a tricky balance.”
Henry Gao, a professor from Singapore Management University asked, “So when will the whole national anthem be censored?”
While Financial Times reporter Eli Meixler thought it “Unreal,” American economist Chris Balding commented, “Revolutions always eat their creators.”

Source: Voice of America, April 18, 2022
https://www.voachinese.com/a/china-on-twitter-national-anthem-cencored-20220418/6534587.html

Briefings | | |   Social Stability

Report: China Concerned about Rising Household Debt

According to a February report that a Chinese research institute published, the country’s household debt ratio, which measures debt as a share of income, has climbed from less than 5 percent in 2000 to 62.2 percent at the end of last year, surpassing both Germany and neighboring Japan.

The report, that scholars at the government think tank, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, co-authored, points out that, “A sudden increase in household indebtedness will affect the stability of the fiscal system. High household debt largely triggered the global financial turmoil in 2008. In China, the risk of household debt is closely related to the real estate market, to the growth of income and to the growth and distribution of wealth.”

The authors also pointed to the very difficult problem for some households that do not have cash on hand to spend. Low-income workers, the self-employed and migrant workers are particularly vulnerable to the impact of the epidemic. The unstable income of these groups may lead to greater pressure on overall household debt.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), April 19, 2022
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202204190215.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

China Saw Weak Movie Box Office for the Qingming National Festival Period

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDAQ: SINA) recently reported that, according to statistics from the Office of National Film Special Fund Management Committee, during the 2022 Qingming National Festival Period (April 3 – April 5), the total box office revenue in China was RMB 122 million yuan (around US$19.15 million). Last year, the box office total for the same period reached RMB 820 million yuan (around US$128.7 million). Except for the full shutdown of theaters in the same period in 2020, this result is the lowest box office number for the same period in the past decade. Statistics also showed that the total number of screenings in the Qingming Festival Period was 627,900 this year. The figure was nearly halved year-over-year. The number of movie-goers reached 3,420,200, only one-sixth of what it was for the same period last year. A number of factors are involved. Behind the bleak box office is the sluggish theater operating rate and the withdrawal of films. Nearly half of the theaters across the country were closed because they were affected by the spread of Covid-19. The operating rate of theaters in the major movie markets in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Shandong and other regional markets was less than five percent. This was especially so for the theater operating rate in Shanghai which was zero. The State Film Administration issued a notice that all theaters in medium and high-risk areas will not be allowed to open for the time being. Affected by this order, a large number of movies were withdrawn. Under the brutal market environment, theaters have been forced to turn to another business. There are regional projection operators who switched to the food catering market. Local governments are providing subsidies to the industry to help sustain it.

Source: Sina, April 6, 2022
https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hyyj/2022-04-06/doc-imcwiwst0206810.shtml

Briefings | | |   Social Stability

Chosun: South Korea May Join the Anti-China Siege Network

South Korea’s largest newspaper Chosun recently reported, in its Chinese Edition, that Hong Nam-Ki, South Korea’s Deputy Prime Minister of Economy and Minister of Planning and Finance, said at the 6th Foreign Economic Security Strategy Conference that the discussions on the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) will be more concrete and accelerated (than previously). South Korea is positioned to move toward an active and engaged direction. IPEF is an economic alliance that the the United States is building along  with allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific region to reduce its dependence on China in the fields of the global supply chain, infrastructure, the digital economy, and renewable energy. Hong Nam-Ki’s remarks may actually mean South Korea has decided to join the IPEF. Regarding CPTPP (The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership), which does not include the United States, considering that most of the member countries are agriculturally developed countries, it is expected to cause a considerable blow to South Korea’s agriculture. Thus the South Korean government is formulating corresponding support plans. With the recent expansion of Covid-19’s  spread in China, major cities such as Shanghai have been closed down and there has been a major supply chain impact from China. Hong Nam-Ki expressed that he was worried about the related impact on production lines in South Korea and he suggested to improve the country’s preparedness for the need to respond.

Source: Chosun, April 17, 2022
https://cnnews.chosun.com/client/news/viw.asp?nNewsNumb=20220456957&cate=&mcate=M1001

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Indonesians Regard China as their Top Security Threat

Singapore News Network recently reported that, according to the result of a survey that the Australian Lowy Institute conducted, the Indonesian people identify China as their biggest security threat. The survey showed that only 43 percent of Indonesians believe that Chinese investments are beneficial to Indonesia. That figure is down from the 54 percent in 2011. A whopping 50 percent believe that China’s goal is to dominate Indonesia. The survey also showed that China has replaced Malaysia as the country considered by the most Indonesians to be a potential aggressor Also, about half of the respondents believe that China will pose a security threat in the next ten years, which is an increase of ten percentage points from the previous survey results. However, only 55 percent of the respondents expressed trust in Australia, down 20 percent from 2011. Fifty-six percent of respondents said they trust the U.S., down 16 percent. Around 65 percent of those surveyed trust Japan, but this is down 15 percent from the past. Survey results clearly showed Indonesians have little trust in big powers. Evan Laksmana, a senior researcher at the Center for Asia and Globalization at the National University of Singapore, who participated in this research, said that, for the Indonesian people, China is no longer seen as a mere economic opportunity, but as a series of challenges.

Source: Singapore News Network, April 7, 2022
https://www.sgnews.co/21142.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend