Chinascope – Page 210

Court Rules Hungarian Government Must Make China-Hungarian Railway Contract Public

In 2020, Hungary received a US$1.9 billion 20-year-term loan from China for a railway construction project. Hungary’s foreign ministry said that the contract agreement with China must be kept confidential. If it were not, it would be detrimental to the national interest. On October 7, 2021, a Hungarian court ruled that the government must make the contract public by October 22.

In 2014, Hungary, China and Serbia signed the original memorandum of understanding to rebuild and expand the railway line between Budapest, the Hungarian capital, and Belgrade, the Serbian capital. The long-stalled project, which has been on hold since 2017, is planned to rebuild and expand the 150-kilometre (93 miles) line between Budapest and Kelebia (a village in Southern Hungary). Construction in Serbia will begin in 2018. China is to provide 85 percent of the financing in the form of loans and Hungary will provide 15 percent.

In 2020, Hungary received the 20-year loan of $1.9 billion of the from China. In April of the same year, the Hungarian parliament voted to keep all details of the railway project confidential, including a feasibility study of its profitability, stressing that it was necessary in order to obtain the loan from the Bank of China.

Bernadette Szel, a member of Hungary’s independent opposition party, filed a lawsuit to make the Chinese loan agreement public. On October 7, Szel won the second appeal. The court ruled that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had not attached any credible evidence that the issuance of the contract would harm Hungary’s national interests. and that the documents must be published within 15 days.

According to Reuters, the railway project, part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, will be China’s first major infrastructure project in the European Union. The aim is to help transport Chinese goods from Greece to Western Europe. It is viewed as Beijing’s efforts to open new foreign trade links within the EU. The Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, has been a strong supporter of the project.

Source: Radio Free Asia, October 20, 2021
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/junshiwaijiao/cl-10202021131904.html

Briefings | | October 24, 2021 | Geo-Strategic Trend

Second Baby Boomer Generation Enters Sixties in an Aging China

On October 14, 2021, China Business News ran a feature on the second baby-boomer population. The article was based on an interview with Yuan Xin, professor at the School of Economics of Nankai University, Tianjin, China.

Since 1949, China has experienced three “baby boomer periods.” They were from 1950 to1958, 1962 to 1975, and 1981 to1997. Those born during the three “baby boomer periods” will enter their 60s in 2010 to 2018, 2022 to 2035, and 2041 to 2057. These periods will bring three “shock waves” to China’s economy.

Next year, China’s second baby-boomer population will officially become 60 years old.

Yuan said that at the end of the 21st century, the population of 60 and above will remain at 400 million and account for over 37 percent of the entire population in China.

Yuan said that, compared with other countries in the world, China’s elderly population has four unique characteristics.

One, China has a large number of older people who are 60 and above. According to the United Nations (UN) “World Population Prospects 2019,” forecast data shows that in 2052, China’s population of people at age 60 and above will reach the peak of 490 million people. One out of every four older people in the world will live in China.

Two, China is aging at an unprecedented rapid speed. Yuan said that the average annual growth rate of China’s elderly population far exceeds the average annual growth rate of the total population. The rate of population aging in China is faster than in countries with more than 100 million people.

Three, China has a larger share of the population aged 60 and above in its total population. In 2000, ten percent of its total population were 60 and above (aging country). The 2020 national census shows that the figure has reached 18.7 percent. It will exceed 20 percent in 2025 (making China a deeply aging country) and 30 percent in 2041 (making it a severely aging country), according to the United Nations. This means that it will take China 25 years from 2000 to transition from an aging country to a deeply aging country in 2025. That is 45 to 50 years faster than the average of developed countries.

Further, it will take merely 16 years for China to transition from a deeply aging country in 2025 to a severely aging country in 2041, 14 years faster than the average of developed countries. In 2041, China will have one of the oldest populations in the world.

Four, China is a super-stable aging country. When the rapid aging process is over, China will be a super-stable aging country in the second half of the 21st century due to its large senior population. By then, the size of China’s elderly population will remain between 400 million and 480 million, which is between 35 percent and 38 percent of its total population.

Source: China Business Network, October 14, 2021

https://www.yicai.com/news/101197277.html

Briefings | | October 21, 2021 | Social Stability

Communist Party Political Inspectors Arrive at Top Financial Institutions

Political inspectors from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have kicked off the eighth round of inspections since Xi Jinping took office as the CCP General Secretary of the 18th National Congress. A month ago, the CCP Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) announced political inspections of 25 financial institutions.

Recently, the Second Inspection Team arrived at the Bank of Communications Co., Ltd. and the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The Fourth Inspection Team came to the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC); and the Fifth Inspection Team was at the China Everbright Group Co., Ltd. Each inspection will take about two months.

The Bank of Communications Co., Ltd. is among the top 5 leading commercial banks in China. It is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Shanghai Stock Exchange. In addition to over 2,800 branches in China, it has 23 overseas subsidiaries, branches, and representative offices in Hong Kong, New York, San Francisco, Tokyo, Singapore, Sydney, Frankfurt, London, Paris, and Johannesburg, as well as other cities.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange is the world’s 3rd largest stock market by market capitalization at US$7.62 trillion as of July 2021. It is also Asia’s largest stock exchange. According to its website, “Under the strong leadership of the CPC [the Communist Party of China] the Central Committee and the State Council and under the direct guidance of the CSRC [the China Securities Regulatory Commission], along with fervent support from all sectors of society, the Exchange makes it its mission to serve the nation’s reform and development initiatives.” CBIRC is a state agency under China’s State Council. It is the main regulator of the banking and insurance institutions.

China Everbright Group Corporation is a state-owned financial conglomerate listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with alternative asset management as its core business. During the kick-off at these institutions, the Inspection Teams emphasized that the inspection is “an important measure to uphold and strengthen the Party’s overall leadership over financial work, promote the Party building, especially political development; and an important measure to safeguard national economic security and promote the financial industry.” It is also “an important measure to strengthen the comprehensive and strict governance of the Party in the financial sector and promote the deepening of the anti-corruption struggle.”

The Inspection Teams urged the Party committees at these financial institutions to “improve their political positions and re-enforce their political responsibilities.”

The Inspection Teams have set up inspection hotlines and mailboxes for complaints and will receive letters and visits until December 15, 2021.

Source: Beijing News, October 13, 2021
https://www.bjnews.com.cn/detail/163408805114960.html

Briefings | | October 21, 2021 | Government/Politics

Military: CCP Scholar: Ten Benefits for the CCP to Take Back Taiwan

Jin Canrong is a Professor and Vice Dean of the School of International Relations of Renmin University of China. He is a vocal political speaker to promote and justify the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) strategies and policies.

His speech that the there will be ten benefits for the CCP to take back Taiwan was posted on YouTube on September 23, 2021. The following are the points he made:

First, China’s national strategic position will be improved. The first island chain surrounding China will collapse.

Second, China will be able to wipe out the hundred-year national shame. Chinese people have a healthy mentality.

Third, it will completely establish the connotation of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics.

Fourth, the status of our military will be improved with a great step. This would be the Chinese military taking the initiative to go out for a war.

Fifth, it will resolve the TSMC problem. The CCP can nationalize (take over) TSMC; together with Micron and the mainland’s SMIC, China’s (chip) technology will make a dramatic jump.

Sixth, It will help the CCP’s political security. Jin thinks Taiwan is the main source of “color revolutions” in mainland China and one of the biggest threats to the CCP’s political life in China.

Seventh, it will make social stability better. Jin blames the Taiwanese for 90 percent of the telecom fraud in mainland China.

Eighth, it will provide a new wave of revitalization for the economy at China’s coast. China can put more resources into economic development, and the economy at China’s eastern coast will take off.

Ninth, it will eliminate China’s diplomatic weakness. The United States uses Taiwan as a weapon against China. Many countries ask China for financial aid in exchange or in trade for supporting the “One China” policy.

Tenth, it will establish China’s international prestige and change the world landscape overnight.

Military: People’s War against U.S. Spies

Amidst the U.S. CIA recruiting staff members who know Chinese, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), via its online account “Jun Zheng Ping” called for a people’s war against the U.S. spies. In Chinese, Jun Zheng Ping (“钧正平”) is the homonym of “军政评” (an abbreviation for “PLA Political Commentary”).

The post is titled, “What should we do when the CIA is on a recruiting spree for Chinese-speaking spies?” It said that, “The CIA’s requirements for recruiting agents were exposed: candidates should understand Mandarin, Shanghainese, Cantonese, or Hakka.”

Then the posting continued, “A few days ago, the CIA announced that it would set up a ‘China Mission Center’ to deal with the so-called ‘China threat.’ The CIA agent recruitment requirements included knowing Mandarin and some Chinese dialects. Hostile forces outside the country have been ‘working hard.’ (We can) never slacken on national security work. The U.S. intelligence services that recruit agents so blatantly must have more sinister and unpleasant means behind the scenes. Still, however cunning the fox is, it cannot fight a good hunter. The only way to maintain national security is to trust the people and rely on the people. (We) need ‘Chaoyang Ladies’ (volunteers to watch for any suspicious people and report them to the authorities); we also need ‘fishing copper fishermen’ (Chinese fishermen taking out U.S. military equipment from the international waters), to fight a ‘people’s war’ against spies, to make it so the spies have no move to take and nowhere to hide!”

Leadership: CCP’s Third Decision on Historical Issues

On October 18, Xi Jinping led the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) Political Bureau to review the draft resolution of “The CCP Central Committee’s Decision on the Major Achievements and Historical Experience of the Party’s 100 Years of Efforts.” It decided to submit the draft resolution to the Sixth Plenary Session of the CCP’s Nineteenth National Congress.

China News published an article, commenting on the significance of this decision. This is the third of the CCP’s decisions on “historical issues” during its entire one hundred year history. The article mentioned that the media Duowei reported on it and mentioned that the previous two decisions went through brutal in-fighting within the CCP. Duowei is tied to former CCP head Jiang Zemin and Zeng Qinghong (Jiang’s Right-hand man). Jiang and Zeng’s group had been fighting against Xi for many years. The China News article then commented that Duowei’s reporting on this decision and the history of the CCP in-fighting indicates that the current CCP in-fighting is intense.

The first decision, taking four years (1941 to 1945) from drafting to passage, established Mao Zedong’s superior leadership within the CCP. The second one, taking a year and half (November 1979 to June 1981) from drafting to passage, established Deng Xiaoping’s superior leadership. Duowei said Xi wants to use the third one to secure his superior leadership.

The new decision draft described Xi’s achievements vs. the previous CCP leaders’ achievements as the following: “In the course of the Party’s long-term struggle, the Chinese Communists, mainly represented by Comrades Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, and Hu Jintao, have united and led the entire Party and the people of all ethnic groups to promote the revolution, construction, and reform. They realized significant achievements and accumulated valuable experience. Since the 18th Party National Congress, the Party Central Committee, with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, has united and led the whole Party and the people of all nationalities to accomplish new major achievements and accumulate new valuable experience …”

{Editor’s Notes: The CCP officially recognizes five leaders since it ruled the mainland China in 1949: Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, and Xi Jinping. The first two, Mao and Deng, are the paramount leaders; while the third and fourth, Jiang and Hu, didn’t have the “super leader” status. Jiang and Hu served their two full terms and retired. Xi has modified the CCP’s Constitution to allow a person to serve beyond two terms. If Xi seeks his third term, a justification that he has surpassed his two predecessors in achievements will come in handy. However, this important “decision” draft didn’t give him that. It bundles all the four previous leaders together to compare to Xi. As politically it is hard to say that Xi beats Mao and Deng, the leadership comparison ends up as Xi’s achievement being the same as that of his predecessors, including Jiang and Hu. This statement may be the result of a fierce in-fight between Xi and other fictions.}

The World’s Incredible Dependence on Chinese Containers

On October 18, 2021, the French newspaper Les Echos published an article entitled, “The World’s Incredible Dependence on Chinese Containers.” The article pointed out that the global container industry is heavily dependent on China and almost all container boxes are made in China. China produces more than 96 percent of the world’s dry cargo containers, 100 percent of the world’s refrigerated containers and more than 90 percent of tank containers. The shortage of containers is one of the main bottlenecks affecting maritime cargo transportation and global supply chains.

In the Spring of this year, the purchase price of the popular 40-foot container on the market exceeded US$6,500, which is double the price from a year ago and reached the highest point since 1998. The prices of refrigerated containers and tank containers are also on the rise. According to Eurotainer, the world’s leading tank container leasing company, within one year, the purchase price of tank containers has risen from US$13,000 to US$21,000.

Drewry, a maritime research and consulting firm, said the first six months of this year saw China’s dry container production jump 235 percent year-on-year to 3 million 20-foot equivalent units. Manufacturers’ order books are full and delivery times are getting longer and longer. Driven by this strong demand, the container manufacturer China International Marine Containers Co. (CIMC) achieved a net profit of 4.39 billion yuan (600 million euros) in the first half of this year, an increase of 1,739 percent over the same period last year.

Source: Radio France International, October 18, 2021
https://rfi.my/7q89

Briefings | | October 20, 2021 | Economy/Resources

Hong Kong Official: Legislation for Article 23 of the Basic Law Should Include Espionage

Wen Wei Po, the Hong Kong based pro-Beijing newspaper, published an exclusive interview with Chris Tang, the Secretary for Security of Hong Kong. Tang said that the Hong Kong National Security Law’s provision relating to colluding with foreign countries or foreign forces who endanger national security mainly targets “agents,” but “does not cover” much about real foreign spies.

He said that there is a lot of evidence showing the existence of espionage activities in Hong Kong, and that the US Central Intelligence Agency recently announced the establishment of a “China Mission Center” to strengthen the collection of intelligence.

“Who are these people? What are they if not spies?” In the face of the “long arms” of foreign countries, Tang expressed the belief that Hong Kong needs legislation to strengthen the regulation of espionage activities.

Earlier this month, Tang said that Article 23 of the Basic Law stipulates that Hong Kong needs to legislate to prohibit seven crimes, five of which are not included in the National Security Law, and that even the current Crimes Ordinance is not sufficient to deal with them.

Article 23 of Hong Kong Basic Law states that Hong Kong “shall enact laws on its own to prohibit any act of treason, secession, sedition, subversion against the Central People’s Government, or theft of state secrets, to prohibit foreign political organizations or bodies from conducting political activities in the Region, and to prohibit political organizations or bodies in the Region from establishing ties with foreign political organizations or bodies.”

Source: Wen Wei Po, October 18, 2021
https://www.wenweipo.com/a/202110/18/AP616cb961e4b08d3407e0a48c.html

Briefings | | October 20, 2021 | Government/Politics

China’s Reaction to Trump’s Election Win

Xinhua Commentary Series: Spotlight on the U.S. Presidential Election

Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized