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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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A Quarter of Japanese Companies Consider Reducing or Withdrawing Investments from Hong Kong

Between July 2 and 9, the Consulate General of Japan in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong office of the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) and the Hong Kong Japanese Chamber of Commerce conducted a survey on the business environment in Hong Kong among more than 600 Japanese-owned companies and local catering companies operated by Japanese. The results showed that 56.5 percent of the respondents were “very worried” or “worried” about the implementation of the Hong Kong National Security Law. This represented an increase of 5.7 percentage points up from the previous survey in April.

When asked about the reasons for worrying about the national security law, most companies, (as high as 79.4 percent of them), expressed their worries about the “restricted information flow,” a surge of 13.8 percentage points from the last survey. 60 percent worried about “Hong Kong losing its ‘rule of law’ and ‘judicial independence,'” and 58.1 percent worried about “brain drain.” The rest of the reasons include “increased intervention from the Chinese government and a weakening of Hong Kong’s autonomy,” the “instability of Hong Kong society,” and the “ambiguous enforcement of the National Security Law.”

Although more than 60 percent of Japanese companies in Hong Kong believe “no change” in the current business environment compared to a year ago, many companies said that one year after the implementation of the national security law, some employees left Hong Kong with their children, some local distributors moved overseas, and 25.5 percent of the companies are considering reducing or withdrawing their investments from Hong Kong.

The survey also asked about the views of the those from the headquarters of Japanese companies in Hong Kong. 31.8 percent of the respondents gave a “pessimistic” answer. Many of them blamed the Japanese news reporting on Hong Kong. 46 percent of the companies said that the headquarters “urged them to reduce the size of their Hong Kong operations.”

Source: Radio Free Asia, July 267, 2021
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/jingmao/ac-07272021044949.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

13.7 million Chinese Sign Petition to Investigate U.S. Lab

The Chinese official media Global Times recently launched an online petition urging the international community to investigate whether the U.S. military’s Fort Detrick Biological Laboratory was the origin of the new coronavirus.

As of July 26, the petition was alive and the number of signatures has been growing over time. The signatories below the signature counter did not post any name, but simply stated that a “netizen” from somewhere in China had participated. The increase in the number of signatures is considerable. According to Global Times, the signatures began on July 17 and by July 22 more than 5 million people had signed. Just one day later, by midnight Beijing time on July 23, the number of signatures jumped to more than 9.4 million. By July 26, the number was over 13.7 million.

The petition is in response to an open letter allegedly signed by Chinese netizens in early June of this year calling for a WHO investigation into the U.S. Fort Detrick Biological Laboratory.

The letter claimed that the U.S. military’s Fort Detrick Biological Laboratory had a leak in the fall of 2019 on the eve of the Covid-19 outbreak, and that the U.S. side covered up the details in the interest of national security. This has led to concerns about whether the event was related to the coronavirus and to calls for a WHO investigation.

In fact, Fort Detrick has been a thorn in the side of Chinese officials since March of last year. Chinese Ambassador to the United States Cui Tiankai said last March that the notion that the virus came from a U.S. lab was crazy. However, according to the website of Foreign Policy magazine, from early March last year until now, Chinese officials and state media have mentioned the Fort Detrick lab more than four hundred times in articles, videos, tweets and press conferences and have repeatedly asked the lab to open up for China to send its staff to investigate.

The narrative linking Fort Detrick to the coronavirus in these conversations is that U.S. Army soldier Maatje Benassi brought the virus from the Fort Detrick to Wuhan in October 2019 while he was there for the World Military Games.

Richard H. Ebright, professor of chemistry and chemical biology at Rutgers University, denounced this claim as utter nonsense, telling Radio Free Asia that the analysis of the genome sequence of the coronavirus extracted from humans indicates that this virus infected human bodies in or near Wuhan sometime around September to November 2019.

According to public information, the Fort Detrick Biological Laboratory, which is part of the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID), did receive a directive from the Centers for Disease Control to close in 2019. The New York Times reported that a USAMRIID spokesperson said at the time that the closure was primarily due to a lack of proper disinfection of the lab, but that there was no threat that would endanger public safety, nor was there any leakage of hazardous materials that would cause injury to anyone.

Source: Radio Free Asia, July 22, 2021
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/huanjing/wy-07222021111401.html

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

FoxConn’s Largest Plant in China Impacted by Zhengzhou Flood

Well-known Chinese news site NetEase (NASDAQ: NTES) recently reported that, after the major flood in the city of Zhengzhou (Henan Province), the situation at the Foxconn plants in Zhengzhou were seriously challenging. Zhengzhou has Foxconn’s largest industrial park in China and it is the world’s largest production base for Apple mobile phones. Foxconn Group has three plants in Zhengzhou, namely the Airport Plant, the Economic Development Zone Plant, and the Zhongmu Plant. The Zhongmu Plant, which is the closest to Zhengzhou City, was the most impacted. Starting July 20, the plant’s operations were suspended and some workers were trapped in the staff dormitory where the first floor was under water. The water supply and electricity were cut off, and people hadn’t eaten for nearly two days. On July 22, workers were rescued and transported to a safe location by forklift. The Economic Development Zone Plant was also shut down for one day. By the end of July 22, some workers had still not been accounted for. No one at the local company office or the local government office answered the calls from reporters.

Source: NetEase, July 22, 2021
https://www.163.com/dy/article/GFGTGVTD0519D3BI.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Social Stability US-China Relations

Local Chinese Block Western Journalist from Reporting on Zhengzhou

In flood-stricken Zhengzhou City in central China, not only local Chinese journalists, but foreign reporters, including  those from Taiwan and Hong Kong, have been covering the story. However, a Twitter video shows that some “patriotic people” in the city have been interfering with the reporting of a Western journalist.

These people surrounded the journalist and accused the journalist of “demonizing China” and of “selective reporting.” They even demanded to see the footage.

At the same time, according to online information, the number of missing people in Henan province has reached 130. Their friends and relatives have posted photos of the missing and described their appearance and body features. Most of the missing are residents of Zhengzhou.

The military has now taken over the Jingguang Road Tunnel, where hundreds of cars were trapped in the flood. People are prohibited from approaching the site and also from taking photos. Those who sought to find the whereabouts of their loved ones who were supposedly trapped in the tunnel have also been held back.

Although the official figure is that only four people were killed in the tunnel, netizens have widely questioned the number. Cyber authorities have deleted some of the online posts that questioned the number.

Source: Twitter, July 25, 2021


Radio Free Asia, July 25, 2021
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/Xinwen/7-07252021144949.html

Briefings | | |   Social Stability

Chinese Foreign Minister’s Criticism of U.S. before Meeting with Wendy Sherman

Days before meeting with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi repeatedly named and criticized the United States.

“The U.S. has always wanted to use its strength to exert pressure on other countries, conveying the idea that it is superior. But I want to tell the U.S. side clearly that there has never been any superior country in this world, nor should there be a superior country. China will not accept any country claiming to be superior.” Wang said this at a press event on July 24, when meeting with the Pakistan Foreign Minister in Chengdu, Sichuan.

Wang continued, “If the United States has not yet learned how to deal with other countries on an equal footing, it is our responsibility, along with the international community, to give the United States this lesson.”

On July 25, Wang met with the Foreign Minister of Finland in Chengdu, Sichuan. When asked by a reporter, Wang said, “The U.S. side is hyping up the lab leak theory with the presumption of guilt. Its purpose is to shift the blame for its own ineffectiveness in fighting the epidemic and to achieve the political goal of discrediting and suppressing other countries. … It is necessary to write this ugly page in the history of the human race’s fight against the epidemic.”

“We should trace the original source of not only the new coronavirus, but also the political virus.” He criticized the WHO’s second stage of Covid-19 origin probe as a deviation from the requirements of the 73rd WHO General Assembly resolution. “It seems that the U.S. has returned to the WHO with the intention of not joining the international fight against the epidemic but of continuing to use the platform to spread political viruses.”

Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman arrived in Tianjin on July 25 and was scheduled to meet with Wang Yi on Monday July 26. She was also to meet with China’s Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng, who oversees U.S.-China relations.

Source: Central News Agency, July 26, 2021
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202107260015.aspx

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

People’s Lives: Did Zhengzhou Reservoir Release Flood Water without Informing the Public?

Henan Province suffered much rainfall recently. On July 20, the streets of its capital city, Zhengzhou, were completely under water and cars were washed away.

The videos of people trapped in subway trains, which the city kept running during the flood, were widespread on social media. Around 6 p.m. on July 20, subway trains were stuck underground due to the water. Water started to flow into the cars through the doors and kept accumulating. Some reported water reached 1.6 meters high. Passengers stood on chairs to keep their heads above water and parents held their babies in the air. People started to call their families to leave their wills and account information. Quite a few people lost conscience as there was not enough air. Finally the rescuers arrived and many people were saved. The authorities announced 12 deaths. The people who survived the tragedy questioned this number.

A bigger controversy was that people questioned whether the disaster was caused by the authorities’ releasing flood water from the reservoir near Zhengzhou without first informing the public.

An article listing several suspicious points was widely spread over the Internet. China Digital Times saved a copy in case the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) deleted the article. The following is a summary of the highlights:

1. When were people saved?

A number of the Zhengzhou and the Henan Provincial news media declared victory in early evening. Zhengzhou News Radio said at 7:23 p.m. that all passengers were saved. The Huanqiu website quoted Zhengzhou News at 8:02 p.m. stating people were saved. Henan Province Daxiang News reported victory at 9:17 p.m.

However, an online video showed that a passenger said it was past 8 p.m. and rescuers had not arrived yet. A microblog posting at 11:25 p.m. said that his family members were trapped in the subway No. 5 line and had not been rescued yet, but that posting was removed very quickly. Another microblog posted at 3:09 a.m. on July 21 said people at the Guangnan Road Station of subway No. 5 line had been trapped from 6 p.m. till then and still were waiting to be rescued.

Xinhua News Agency also reported at 0:54 a.m. on July 21 that the rescue was still ongoing and the number of casualties was unknown.

2. How substantial was the amount of rain?

The Zhengzhou authorities blamed the weather for the disaster. The Zhengzhou official weather microblog said, “Zhengzhou had rain of 201.9 mm (millimeters) in one hour (4 p.m. to 5 p.m. on July 20), and 552.5 mm in one day (8 p.m. on July 19 to 8 p.m. on July 20).”

However, the National Weather Bureau had a top article discussing the Henan heavy rainfall, “Hehan Province has had heavy rainfall since July 17. Zhengzhou’s average rainfall (from July 17 to 20) was 357 mm. In one day (from 5 p.m. July 19 to 5 p.m. July 20), the average rainfall in Henan Province was 73.1 mm and that in Zhengzhou was 286.5 mm. … The biggest rainfall occurred in Zhengzhou’s Jiangang site, which was 584.0 mm.”

It seems that the Zhengzhou officials exaggerated the rainfall dramatically. It took the biggest rainfall in one location and made it the city average.

3. Did the government release water from the reservoir near Zhengzhou?

Around 10 p.m. on July 20, messages started to spread among social media in China that the water broke the main gate of the Changzhou Reservoir and the authorities bombed the sub-gates to release floodwater.

The Henan Public Security Bureau sent a microblog message at 11:06 p.m. immediately to declare this was a rumor.

However, The Beijing News published an article at 0:48 a.m. on July 21, stating, “The Changzhuang Reservoir opened the gates to release flood-water around 4 p.m. on July 20.” It quoted the source as being from the CCTV Military channel.

National Business Daily reported at 10:53 p.m. on July 20, “According to CCTV news, … The water at the Changzhuang Reservoir reached 127.87 meters at 10:57 a.m. on July 20, which was 0.38 meters above the  “alerting” water level. Following the Henan Provincial and Zhengzhou Municipal Flood Control Command’s order, the reservoir started releasing flood-water at 3 cubic meters per second.”

Baidu Encyclopedia said that the Changzhuang Reservoir was 2 km (around 1.2 mile) away from Zhengzhou’s Xihuan Road. The Reservoir dam was 36.74 meters above the center of Zhengzhou city and 52.74 meters above the Zhengdong New District, of Zhengzhou.

All these media, including CCTV said that the Changzhuang Reservoir released water. The timeline seemed to be a good match: The reservoir released water around 4 p.m. and subway trains in Zhengzhou were taken over by flood-water around 6 p.m.

The article questioned whether the authorities were trying to cover up their releasing flood water without notifying the public, which caused a huge disaster for the people.

Source: China Digital Times, July 20, 2021

【404文库】七使2020 | 郑州洪灾，水库溃坝：我们要真相，不要糊涂账

Hot Topics | | |   Social Stability

Leadership: Central Security Bureau’s Leadership Change

Recently, Xi Jinping appointed Zhou Hongxu (周洪许) as the Director of the Central Security Bureau (中央警卫局). Coming from the position of Deputy Chief of Staff of the Northern Theater Army, Zhou is the first Central Security Bureau’s head appointed from outside instead of being promoted from within.

Cheng Xiaonong, an expert on China issues, wrote a lengthy article to explain the importance of the Central Security Bureau to the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) top leader and how appointment of the bureau’s director works.

The Central Security Bureau is best known for its role in the political coup in 1976 after Mao Zedong died. At that time, Marshall Ye Jianying, Prime Minister Hua Guofeng, and Security Chief Wang Dongxing joined forces and ordered the guards of the Central Security Bureau to arrest the “Gang of Four,” including Mao’s wife Jiang Qing. This coupe ended the disastrous Cultural Revolution in China, and thus was praised as a heroic action.

Cheng explained the inside operation of the CCP system. There is only one ultimate TOP LEADER of the CCP system, who may or may not hold the highest official title. For example, then paramount leader Deng Xiaoping let his subordinates Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang hold the highest CCP’s position – General Secretary of the CCP.

The TOP LEADER secures his power via effectively monitoring/controlling other officials.

He uses three key units of the CCP General Office (中央办公厅) to carry out the control: the Confidential Bureau (机要局), the Health Services Bureau (保健局), and the Central Security Bureau (警卫局).

The Confidential Bureau serves confidential documents and manages the confidential phone systems. Ministers and officials above the ministerial level, have a four-digit-number confidential phone, which is called the “red phone” due to its red case. There is also a “39” phone system, since those phones have their numbers start with “39” and then five digits afterward. The “39” phones are installed at Zhongnanhai, the Great Hall of the People, the Diaoyutai Hotel, and the Yuquanshan Guest House. The Confidential Bureau monitors both the red phones and the 39 phones.

The Health Service Bureau provides personal health care to the few top CCP officials, including health checkups, daily medication, and treatment plans in case of illness. This bureau directly reports to the TOP LEADER and many times only the TOP LEADER knows the real health problem of the other officials. For example, Mao Zedong knew that his Prime Minister Zhou Enlai had cancer but didn’t tell Zhou; Mao also decided not to conduct a cancer treatment operation for Zhou.

The Central Security Bureau is responsible for the safety of the TOP LEADER. The unit also assigns personal security guards to other high-ranking officials.

Though staff members from these three units are assigned to serve individual officials, they report back to their own bureau, so their true loyalty stays within the bureau but not with the official they are serving. They are the eyes and ears of the TOP LEADER to monitor other officials’ actions.

Therefore, the head of the Central Security Bureau is very important to the TOP LEADER. When a new top leader takes power from the incumbent, he will naturally want to replace the director, but he may wait for a few years before doing it. One reason is that if he does it immediately, it shows he does not trust the incumbent leader and creates tension. The other reason is that he may need time to find someone that he can truly trust.

From 1978 to 1994, Deng Xiaoping used Yang Dezhong (杨德中) as the Director of the Central Security Bureau. Deng also took the three key units out of the CCP General Office and put them under the Central Military Commission, which he directly controlled. There are three top leadership titles in China, Deng had the title of Chairman of Central Military Commission and gave the other two, CCP General Secretary and President of China, to others.

Jiang Zemin inherited all the powers after Deng passed away. Jiang held all three big titles and moved the three units back under the CCP General Office. From 1994 to 2007Jiang installed his loyalist You Xigui (由喜贵) as the head of Central Security Bureau.

The next leader, Hu Jintao, took the top office in 2002, though Jiang still had the real power. It took Hu five years, that is, not until 2007, was he able to replace Jiang’s man You Xigui by his own person Cao Qing (曹清).

When Xi Jinping took over in 2012, Xi kept Cao to show his respect and trust to Hu. After more than two years, Xi was ready to replace Cao. He disclosed the information to the New York Times and the BBC that the Central Security Bureau used his “air force one” to smuggle ivory from Africa, and then used that excuse to move Cao out. Xi promoted Wang Shaojun (王少军) to the Director position from 2015 to 2019.

In 2018, Xi appointed Chen Denglv (陈登铝) as the Deputy Director and Political Commissar of the Central Security Bureau. Chen was an outsider appointee, coming from the position of the Political Commissar of the 91st Division of the 31st Group Army in Zhangzhou, Fujian Province. Xi worked in Fujian from 1985 to 2002 and the 31st Group Army is considered Xi’s loyalist army. Chen ran the Central Security Bureau from his Deputy Director position after Director Wang left. The director position was vacant from 2019 until the recent  appointment of Zhou Hongxu.

Xi’s appointing outsiders as both the Director and Deputy Director of the Central Security Bureau had two risks: One, the bureau’s internal officials might see little hope for promotion. Two, the bureau’s current staff might worry whether Xi would get more outsiders to replace them. These do not help Xi to control the Central Security Bureau so that he can monitor other officials.

Despite these risks, Xi still chose outsiders rather than an internal promotion. This indicates that the officials of the Central Security Bureau might have been involved in CCP in-fighting, that CCP in-fighting is active, and that Xi is worried about the Central Security Bureau’s loyalty to him.

Source:  Epoch Times, July 17, 2021
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/21/7/17/n13095911.htm

Hot Topics | | |   Government/Politics

LTN: Washington Pressured Netherlands to Ban Selling Lithography Systems to China

Major Taiwanese news network Liberty Times Network (LTN) recently reported that the U.S. Biden administration is putting pressure on the Netherlands not to sell lithography systems to Chinese semiconductor companies. The Netherlands’ ASML is the world’s top lithography systems manufacturer primarily for machines to produce computer chips. Even though China urged ASML to sell its EUV lithography system, the Dutch government still retained the export license of ASML EUV. So far, not even one has fallen into the hands of the Chinese Communist Party, even though ASML’s CEO Peter Wennink said that export restrictions may backfire. Less than a month after Biden took office, his national security advisor Jacob Sullivan and his Dutch counterparts discussed the “close cooperation” between the two countries on advanced technologies. Sullivan’s top priority is to continue to restrict ASML’s business with China. The Chinese communists hoped to provide domestic chipmakers with US$150 million EUV lithography systems so that Huawei and other Chinese semiconductor companies can reduce their dependence on foreign suppliers.

Source: LTN, July 17, 2021
https://ec.ltn.com.tw/article/breakingnews/3607159

Briefings | | |   Information/Technology US-China Relations