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China’s Aging Population and its Fraudulent Population Data

In an interview with Voice of America, Yi Fuxian, a senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, author of “Worse than Japan: how China’s looming demographic crisis will doom its economic dream,” an article that the South China Morning Post published, said that China will never surpasses the U.S. and that China’s national and local entities have been overstating the population data for their own benefit.

China’s economic growth will fall behind the U.S. by 2035 because of its aging population

China censored Yi in 2016 because Yi told the New York Times when participating in the 2016 Boao Forum that China’s economy could never exceed the U.S. At that time, the statement he voiced was a big blow to China.

Yi said that population drives the economy – production, consumption and innovation. Yi predicted that because of its aging population, China’s growth will fall behind the U.S. by 2035 and will also make it impossible to surpass the U.S. as the world’s largest economy in 2028. In the 1980’s, China was going through the reform and opening up. China’s median age was 22 years old vs. 30 in the U.S. At that time, China’s economy achieved great results because it conformed to the economic law. However, China’s labor force began to decline around 2014, and the median age had surpassed the U.S. even before 2018. Currently China’s median age is 42 years old while in the U.S. it is 38 years old. If China keeps a stable birth rate of 1.2 (each woman of childbearing age has an average of 1.2 children in her lifetime), then by 2035, the median age in China will be 49 years old, while in the U.S. it will be 42. By 2050, China will reach over 56 years old, and the U.S. will be 44 years old. Between 2030 and 35, China’s population index will fall behind the U.S., which means that the economic growth will be lower than the U.S. by around 2035.

Meanwhile China’s labor force began to decrease in 2013 and 2014, while the labor force in the U.S. will not decrease until 2050. In 1991, China’s birth rate was already lower than the U.S. and in 2000 it was lower than Japan, Germany, Greece, Portugal, and Italy.

Government entities have been overstating population data

According to Yi, very few elite scholars in the U.S. conduct analyses on China’s population data and they don’t have the real data. In the more than 20 years of his research career, he found that the China’s National Family Planning Commission, the National Bureau of Statistics, the local education departments, the local household registration departments, and hospitals have been overstating the population numbers. As a result, projected economic indicators such as the future labor force, consumption power, productivity, and innovation are exaggerated, leading to the overstating of China’s future economic growth and national power.

In 2000, the census data showed that China’s birth rate was only 1.2 and there were 14.08 million births, which means that it had reached the point where China needed to boost its birth rate. However, a law and regulation director of the Family Planning Commission said that the birth rate can’t be that low, so he forged a false report. The Family Planning Commission even announced that, if China had eased up on the one child policy, its birth rate would have risen to 2.1 which would have resulted in an unlimited population expansion. The Family Planning Commission continued to report higher birth rates in 2010 and 2015 census.

In 2016, China stopped the one child policy. The Family Planning Commission projected that China would have 47 million births every year but the actual number of births was 22 million in 2015 and 12 million births in 2016. In 2017, there were discussions on whether China still needed a Family Planning Commission. In order to maintain its power, the Family Planning Commission projected that China would have 18.46 million births in 2018, but the actual births in 2018 was only 13.62 million.

Yi said that at that time, from the National Bureau of Statistics which receives data from the Family Planning Commission to the China Population Association which is managed by the Family Planning Commission, all levels of the government entities set their population numbers to meet their needs.

Even the education bureaus have inflated the student numbers because the education funds they get are jointly funded by the central and local governments based on the projected school age children. The same is for the hospitals. After 2008 when the farmers had insurance to cover child births, hospitals started to overstate the number of births to receive more funding because they knew that the National Health Commission would never be able to find out what the actual number was.

After the household registration reform took place in 2010, there were no restrictions for people to register for residential status. People started to buy or sell birth certificates. Some even have dual or even multiple household registrations. The public security bureau’s household registration data was also fraudulent because the number of household registrations was tied in with the government housing incentive and social security funding.

The National Bureau of Statistics believes that from 2000 to 2019, China had a population increase of 130 million people, while public security household registration showed an increase of 170 million. Yi estimated that, in 2018, the number of births in China was about 10 million, which would have been the beginning of a negative population growth trend. The National Bureau of Statistics, however, showed the number of births was 15.23 million, an increase of 5.3 million, and household registrations showed an increase of 9.24 million.

Source: Voice of America, March 4, 2021
https://www.voachinese.com/a/china-will-not-win-the-race-with-us-20210304/5802138.html

Expert Group Issued Artificial Intelligence Report: America Not AI Ready

The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence is an independent Commission that was established on August 13, 2018, pursuant to Section 1051 of the John S. McCain National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2019 (P.L. 115-232). Its purpose is “to consider the methods and means necessary to advance the development of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and associated technologies in order to address comprehensively the national security and defense needs of the United States.” It recently issued its final report after two years of study.

The bipartisan commission of 15 technologists, national security professionals, business executives, and academic leaders met recently. The letter from the chair, Eric Schmidt, the former Google CEO, “is delivering an uncomfortable message: America is not prepared to defend or compete in the AI era. This is the tough reality we must face. It is this reality that demands comprehensive, whole-of-nation action.”

“The letter highlights the threat and competition from China. “But we must win the AI competition that is intensifying strategic competition with China. China’s plans, resources, and progress should concern all Americans. It is an AI peer in many areas and an AI leader in some applications. We take seriously China’s ambition to surpass the United States as the world’s AI leader within a decade.”

The report, “presents an integrated national strategy to reorganize the government, reorient the nation, and rally our closest allies and partners to defend and compete in the coming era of AI-accelerated competition and conflict. It is a two-pronged approach. Part I ‘Defending America in the AI Era,’ outlines the stakes, explains what the United States must do to defend against the spectrum of AI-related threats, and recommends how the U.S. government can responsibly use AI technologies to protect the American people and our interests. Part II, ‘Winning the Technology Competition,’ addresses the critical elements of the AI competition and recommends actions the government must take to promote AI innovation to improve national competitiveness and protect critical U.S. advantages.”

Recommendations for defending America in the AI Era include:

Defend against emerging AI-enabled threats to America’s free and open society
Prepare for future warfare
Manage risks associated with AI-enabled and autonomous weapons
Transform national intelligence
Scale up digital talent in government
Establish justified confidence in AI systems
Present a democratic model of AI use for national security

To win the technology competition, the report suggests:

Organize a White House–led strategy for technology competition
Win the global talent competition
Accelerate AI innovation at home
Implement comprehensive intellectual property (IP) policies and regimes
Build a resilient domestic base for designing and fabricating microelectronics
Protect America’s technology advantages
Build a favorable international technology order
Win the associated technologies competitions

The report expresses a deep sense of urgency and proposed, “By 2025, the Department of Defense and the Intelligence Community must be AI-ready.”

Source: National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence

2021 Final Report

Senate Passed Bill to Tighten Control over Confucius Institutes

On Thursday March 4, the Senate approved by unanimous consent a bill that would increase oversight of Confucius Institutes, China-funded cultural centers that operate on university campuses.

The bill will cut federal funding to a university or college unless its Confucius Institute on campus complies with stipulated provisions, including academic freedom, prohibition of the application of any foreign law, and granting full managerial authority of the Confucius Institute to the university.

The bill, introduced by Sen. John Kennedy, R-LA, will next be sent to the House for consideration. Original cosponsors include Senators Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), Chuck Grassley (R-IA), Josh Hawley (R-MO), Rogers Marshall (R-KS), and Thom Tillis (R-NC).

On August 13, 2020, the Department of State under the Trump administration designated the Confucius Institute U.S. Center (CIUS), which serves as the Washington D.C.-based de facto headquarters of the Confucius Institute network, as a foreign mission of the People’s Republic of China.

In October, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Education Secretary Betsy DeVos jointly sent letters to the chief state school officers to warn that K-12 classrooms and universities nationwide are being targeted by the Chinese Communist Party’s influence operations, including the presence of Confucius Institutes on campus. “It may come as a surprise to many educators that hundreds of U.S. schools make use of a curriculum developed by an authoritarian government and taught by teachers who are vetted, supplied, and paid by that same government, in partnership with American schools and school districts. A review by the State Department’s Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs found that approval from an institution affiliated with the PRC’s Ministry of Education is generally required when filling teaching positions associated with Confucius Classrooms.”

The American Association of University Professors, or AAUP, released a report in 2014 that recommended colleges take a deeper look at curricula and agendas brought forth in the classroom.

“Confucius Institutes function as an arm of the Chinese state and are allowed to ignore academic freedom,” the statement said, also highlighting a lack of transparency. “Most agreements establishing Confucius Institutes feature nondisclosure clauses and unacceptable concessions to the political aims and practices of the government of China. Specifically, North American universities permit Confucius Institutes to advance a state agenda in the recruitment and control of academic staff, in the choice of curriculum, and in the restriction of debate.”

Source: Congress.gov
https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/590/text
AAUP
https://www.aaup.org/report/confucius-institutes

School Counselor Suspended for “Insulting Heroes”

Hong Kong Sing Tao Daily reported that a counselor from the Sichuan Vocational and Technical College was suspended and under police investigation for using a class group chat to “harass students” during after school hours. The students filed complaints with the school and posted the screenshot of counselor’s comments on the Internet. The screenshot showed that the counselor made comments that were “insults to heroes who are fighting for China at the China-Indian boarder.” The counselor also called the head of the “WHO,” Tedros Adhanom “Tedros China” and openly opposed wearing a mask during the epidemic. This is not the first time that the students complained about the counselor, but this time they posted the comments online, which pressured the school to take action.

The CCP has been using “anonymous tips” to monitor public opinion and actions. During the Cultural Revolution, it encouraged the family members to use “tips” against each other causing hundreds and thousands of families to be torn apart. This “anonymous tips” tactic still exists to this day, especially in schools and colleges.

In mid-February, the Epoch Times learned from overseas Chinese that local authorities in many parts of China were asking the schools to investigate students’ religious backgrounds and encourage them to report the religion of their parents and fellow classmates.

Sources:
1. Sing Tao Daily, March 1, 2021
https://www.singtaousa.com/sf/9-%E5%85%A9%E5%B2%B8/3296737-%E9%AB%98%E6%A0%A1%E6%95%99%E5%B8%AB%E3%80%8C%E4%BE%AE%E8%BE%B1%E8%8B%B1%E9%9B%84%E3%80%8D%E5%81%9C%E8%81%B7/

2. Sound of Hope, February 28, 2021
https://www.soundofhope.org/post/479363

Pew: Vast Majority of Americans Consider China a Competitor or an Enemy

On Thursday March 4, the Pew Research Center released a new study that shows that roughly nine-in-ten U.S. adults (89 percent) view China as a “competitor” or an “enemy” rather than a “partner.” At the same time, most Americans support a firmer approach toward China, from prioritizing human rights issues to adopting a tougher economic and trade policy and restricting Chinese students.

The survey of 2,596 U.S. adults was conducted from February 1 through 7, 2021. Of those surveyed, 53 percent of Americans have confidence in Biden to deal effectively with China. A smaller number say they have confidence in him to handle any of the other foreign policy issues.

American’s trust toward Chinese President Xi Jinping has continued to backslide. Roughly eight-in-ten (82 percent) say they have little or no confidence in the Chinese leader.

Cold feelings toward China

A majority of Americans have negative feelings toward China, up substantially since 2018. Respondents indicated their feelings using a “feeling thermometer.” A rating of zero degrees means they feel as cold and negative as possible and a rating of 100 degrees means they feel as warm and positive as possible. A rating of 50 degrees means they don’t feel particularly positive or negative toward China. Based on this, 67 percent of Americans today feel “cold” toward China (a rating of 0 to 49). This is up 21 percentage points from the 46 percent who said the same in 2018.

Nearly half (47 percent) of Americans feel “very cold” toward China – rating it below 25 on the same 100-point scale. This is around twice as many as those who said the same thing in 2018 (23 percent). Similarly, the share of Americans who give China the lowest possible rating of zero has nearly tripled, from 9 percent in 2018 to around a quarter (24 percent) in 2021. Only 7 percent of Americans have “warm” feelings (51-75 percent) toward China and even fewer (4 percent) say they have “very warm” evaluations of the country (76-100).

Human rights a priority

Fully 90 percent of adults in the U.S. say the Chinese government does not respect the personal freedoms of its people. This perspective is shared among large majorities of Americans across age, education and political groups.

Americans also want more focus to be placed on human rights – even at the expense of economic ties – in bilateral relations with China. When asked whether the U.S. should prioritize economic relations with China or promote human rights in China, 70 percent of Americans chose human rights.

Human rights in China is also the only issue with little partisan division. About seven-in-ten Democrats and Republicans say the U.S. should promote human rights in China, even if it harms economic relations between the two countries.

Tougher stance on China economic policies

64 percent believe current economic relations between the U.S. and China are bad. 52 percent of Americans want the U.S. to get tougher with China rather than to focus on building a stronger relationship.

This opinion is particularly prevalent among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (72 percent of whom want the U.S. to get tougher on China), and especially among those who identify as conservative Republicans (81 percent of whom say the same). About six-in-ten Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents would rather focus on building stronger ties with China, a feeling that is largely consistent among liberal and more moderate or conservative Democrats.

Limits on Chinese Students

While the U.S. public generally welcomes international students, people are more divided when it comes specifically to Chinese students. A majority of Americans (55 percent) support limiting Chinese students studying in the U.S., including about one-in-five Americans who strongly support this idea. On the other hand, 43 percent oppose limitations on Chinese students, with 18 percent strongly opposing them.

Partisan divide

Is China an enemy of the United States? This is one of the most divisive issues in terms of partisanship.

A majority of Americans describe China as a competitor (55 percent) rather than as an enemy (34 percent) or a partner (9 percent). Partisans differ substantially in their evaluations of the U.S.-China relationship. Whereas 53 percent of Republicans and independents who lean toward the Republican Party describe China as an enemy, only 20 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say the same. Nearly two-thirds of conservative Republicans say China is an enemy (64 percent), while only 37 percent of moderate or liberal Republicans say the same.

While Democrats are more likely than Republicans to describe China as a partner, they are also more likely to describe it as a competitor, with nearly two-thirds of Democrats and Democratic leaners (65 percent) describing the relationship in this way.

When it comes to whether limiting China’s power and influence is a top priority, there is a 27-point gap between Republicans and Democrats (63 percent) among Republicans vs. (36 percent) among Democrats). This is one of the largest partisan gaps.

Partisans are also worlds apart on confidence in Biden to deal effectively with China: 83 percent from Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, compared with only 19 percent from Republicans and Republican leaners.

Source: Pew Research Center, March 4, 2021
https://pewrsr.ch/3kOjBCf

Xi Jinping: Lawyers Must Side with the CCP

On March 1, 2021, Qiushi, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) official media, published the full text of a speech that Xi Jinping, the CCP General Secretary, gave in November 2020, at a conference on the rule of law.
Xi stated that the more complex the international and domestic environment, the more it is necessary to use the rule of law to solidify the CCP’s control.
Xi emphasized that China “will never copy the models and practices of other countries, and will never follow the Western so-called ‘constitutionalism,’ ‘separation of powers,’ and ‘judicial independence.’”
Xi stated that some lawyers in China “have weak political awareness and even maliciously attack our country’s political system and the rule of law system.” “It is the basic qualification of a legal professional to support the leadership of the Communist Party of our country and support the socialist rule of law in our country.”
After Xi’s speech appeared in Qiushi, it immediately drew criticism from Chinese lawyers overseas. On March 2, 2021, Radio Free Asia quoted a Chinese lawyer in the United States who requested anonymity. He said that Xi Jinping’s remarks were full of fallacies, “Lawyers must abide by the law and perform their duties following the law.  … Now the CCP requires that the CCP leadership comes first. Then where is the law?”
Ren Quanniu, a human rights lawyer who has assisted Hong Kong dissidents, believes Xi’s speech will make it more difficult for lawyers to represent clients in human rights cases. According to Ren, in a place in Inner Mongolia, the authorities gave the title of “Government Legal Advisor” to all lawyers to make sure that local people basically cannot find a lawyer if they want to sue the local authorities.

US Official Warns of “Taste” of Chinese Domination

On Tuesday March 2, Navy Rear Admiral Michael Studeman, the director of intelligence for the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, told a virtual conference that, “We have a taste of what it means to be led by China or to have China deeply influence us.”

He said, “You’re going to find a very global, expeditionary Chinese military that will be there to step in anywhere they think China’s interests are jeopardized.” “Anywhere globally, when China feels like its development interests are threatened, what you’ll find is that they will end up sending out the PLA [People’s Liberation Army] more and more often.”

Although U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has repeatedly called China the “pacing threat” [which refers to a competitor making significant progress toward challenging U.S. defense strategy] for the Pentagon, and even U.S. President Joe Biden has sought to rally global support to push back against Beijing, Studeman, of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said U.S. officials believe China has established a clear pattern of how it will seek to assert its dominance based on developments with Hong Kong and Taiwan.

“What you’ve seen is essentially the strangulation of freedom, the death of autonomy,” the top intelligence officer said.

“That’s occurred because of how the Chinese have crushed dissent through structural, legal security measures that have essentially clamped down,” he added. “That’s the China of today. That’s what you get.”

Studeman also described how China has steadily increased pressure on Taiwan, flying drones and what he described as special mission aircraft into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone on what has become a daily basis.

The goal, he said, was to stress the Taiwanese military and to “establish a new norm with their military presence around Taiwan.”

There are concerns that current efforts to push back, like recent, so-called freedom of navigation operations, are having little impact at the moment on Chinese decision-making.

The Pentagon on Monday convened its first meeting of the newly created China Task Force, charged with reviewing Washington’s current China strategy and making recommendations within the next four months.

Source: Voice of America, March 2, 2021
https://www.voachinese.com/a/US-China-dominance-20210302/5799532.html

Microsoft: China’s State-Sponsored Cyberattacks

Microsoft issued a release on Tuesday March 2 stating that a China-linked cyber threat actor has been exploiting loopholes in its email server to steal data from emails remotely.

Microsoft said that the targets of hacking include “infectious disease researchers, law firms, higher education institutions, defense contractors, policy think tanks and NGOs.”

Microsoft has detected four exploits being used to attack on-premises versions of the Microsoft Exchange Server. The hacker organization is called Hafnium, a state-sponsored actor based in China. It conducts its operations primarily from leased virtual private servers (VPS) in the United States. Microsoft only recently discovered Hafnium’s activities. It has briefed the U.S. government agencies on this activity.

This is the eighth time in the past 12 months that Microsoft has publicly disclosed nation-state groups targeting institutions critical to civil society. Other activities have targeted healthcare organizations fighting Covid-19, political campaigns and others involved in the 2020 elections, and high-profile attendees of major policymaking conferences.

Source: Radio Free Asia, March 3, 2021
https://www.rfa.org/cantonese/news/us-hack-03032021042929.html
Microsoft, March 2, 2021
https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2021/03/02/new-nation-state-cyberattacks/