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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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Why Are Chinese People Reluctant to Have Children?

According to the latest data from China’s Ministry of Public Security, there were 10.35 million newborns in 2020 with household registration, a sharp drop of 15 percent from the 11.79 million in 2019. The number compares with the 11.87 million newborns in 1961, one of the years of the great famine in China’s history.

However, the number of newborns with household registration is not exactly the same as the number of births in that year. The main reason is that the household registration was not declared for some newborns. Taking 2019 as an example, the Ministry of Public Security shows 11.79 million, but the National Statistics Bureau shows 14.65 million.

Sanlian Life Week, an influential Beijing-based weekly magazine, recently published an article quoting the recent population data that some Chinese cities released. The birth rate in many places fell sharply last year, showing a decline exceeding 10 percent. It was even more than 30 percent in some areas.

The report said that China’s fertility rate, which measures the average number of children per woman, was once higher than 6, but it is now below 1.5. Why don’t Chinese people want to have children? The most important reason is that they cannot afford to have children. Buying or renting houses has emptied many young people’s pockets of their income. Even for a middle-class family, raising children is a very large expense.

The report continued that compared with those born in the 1970s and 1980s, the relative income of those born in 1990’s and 2000’s dropped significantly. The term “relative income” is the ratio of expected future income level to living expenses. The higher the ratio, the stronger the financial ability to raise children.

In addition, the support that society provides for raising children is also insufficient. The report pointed out that in China, “the number of childcare institutions for the age of 0-3 is almost zero.” Without the help of the grandparents, it is almost impossible for double-income families to raise their children independently.

To alleviate the pressure on pensions, the authorities began to study the policy of delaying retirement. However, the report noted that this may in turn further reduce the fertility rate, because most families need the elderly to help take care of their children. If the elderly delay retirement, the families will lose their support. As a result, many young families choose to give up having children.

Source: Central News Agency, February 14, 2021
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202102140135.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Chinese Communists to “Revive Traditional Culture”

On February 14, the General Office of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the General Office of China’s State Council issued the “Opinions on the Implementation of the Inheritance and Development Project of China’s Excellent Traditional Culture,” highlighting the need to “rejuvenate China’s traditional culture comprehensively by 2025.” The key tasks include “increasing publicity and education,” displaying the charm of Chinese culture through the Internet and media, promoting “red” tourism, developing education activities surrounding the theme of “loving China,” and fostering patriotism.

The “Opinions” requires the use of overseas Chinese cultural centers and Confucius Institutes to promote the global spread of Chinese traditional culture and strengthen cultural exchanges and cooperation with countries along the “Belt and Road Initiative.” It also encourages developing international trade of cultural products.

Song Yongyi, a historian at the University of California, Los Angeles, said in an interview with Radio Free Asia that the Chinese Communist Party itself is against traditional culture. Song said that Xi Jinping’s idea of the “Belt and Road Initiative (BRI),” came from the Tang Dynasty over 1,000 years ago. According to historical records, the government of the Tang Dynasty reaching out to the countries west of China was not done mainly for military purposes, but for economic and cultural exchanges. Song said, “When he (Xi Jinping) went to those (Belt and Road) countries, he occupied their ports and turned them into his military ports to develop his military. This is probably not the case throughout the history of traditional China. He was there to promote his ideology, and promote the so-called ‘China model.'”

The Opinions openly stated that the policy highlights and basic principles for the revival of traditional culture are “to grasp firmly the direction of advanced socialist culture and adhere to guidance that centered on people.”

Hu Ping, editor-in-chief of the U.S. based Chinese language magazine Beijing Spring, said, “He (Xi Jinping) is facing a big problem, because the CCP cut its teeth on opposing traditional culture. The CCP is a political group that has been perhaps the most hostile and most negative toward traditional Chinese culture throughout China’s history. Temples of Confucius are an example. For dynasties and generations, even foreign invaders did not damage the Temples of Confucius, but they were smashed during the Cultural Revolution. Now having the CCP play the role of inheriting and promoting traditional culture is itself a huge irony.”

Hu Ping believes that the CCP will only use it as banner, an “icon” of traditional Chinese culture as a decoration, but it actually castrates the soul and essence of traditional Chinese culture. It has been reported that China has recently been aggressively repairing and renovating Buddhist and Taoist temples. At the same time, its control and suppression of traditional religious activities has been unprecedented. The CCP does not respect religious freedom.

Source: Radio Free Asia, February 16, 2021
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/zhengzhi/hx-02162021102517.html

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

Myanmar Military Coup May Disrupt China’s Rare Earth Strategy

The Myanmar military’s coup may disrupt China’s rare earth strategy because Myanmar is an important source for China’s imports of heavy rare earths. Hong Kong’s Ming Pao reported that the economic cooperation between China and Myanmar involves many elements, including industrial transfer, deep water ports, hydroelectric power plants, oil and gas pipelines, oil and gas exploration and development, minerals, gems, and timber, to name just a few examples.

In terms of minerals, the reserves of heavy rare earths only account for less than one percent of the total rare earth reserves and about 90 percent of the heavy rare earth reserves that are in China. Although heavy rare earths account for a very small proportion of the total rare earth reserves in the world, The world has a high consumption rate and could run out quickly. From 2017 to 2018, China significantly reduced its mining volume of heavy rare earth mines and used Myanmar as an alternate source. Myanmar is not a big rare earth country, but among its total rare earth reserves, the proportion of heavy rare earth reserves is relatively high, making it a major supplier of heavy rare earths.

In 2018, China imported 25,800 tons of heavy rare earth ore from Myanmar, which was equal to China’s annual production. According to data from the U.S. Department of the Interior’s Geological Survey (USGS) and other institutions, in 2019, China’s rare earth mine production accounted for 62.9 percent of the world’s total. The U.S. accounted for 12.4 percent; Australia accounted for 10 percent; and Myanmar accounted for 10.5 percent.

The United Nations will certainly continue to discuss Myanmar issues related to the coup and may even consider imposing economic sanctions. If China were to oppose the U.N.’s decision, it would go against China’s claim that the problem should be resolved within the framework of the United Nations. If the situation calls for sanctions against Myanmar, it will put China in an awkward position considering all the economic ties it has with Myanmar.

Source: Central News China, February 15, 2021
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202102150068.aspx

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

RFI Chinese: 17+1 Summit Showed Less Enthusiasm for China

Radio France Internationale (RFI) Chinese Edition recently reported that the just-finished 17+1 Summit between China and the Central and Eastern European countries is showing a changing relationship. There are now 15 European countries that are connected to China via railway for cargo transportation. It takes only 15 to 20 days to travel by rail from Xi’an or Chongqing to Europe, which is half of the time required by sea. This made the railway topic a major item on the 17+1 Summit agenda. Even with the rapid growth of the railway business, the Europeans didn’t show much warmth toward Xi Jinping. One week ago, Romania launched a regulatory procedure that excluded Chinese companies from its national construction projects. Estonia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania only sent ministers to this summit. Hungary is the only country that clearly expressed its friendship toward Beijing. Last April, it reached an agreement with China on the funding of the Budapest-Belgrade railway. However, the content of the agreement will be kept confidential for ten years. Russia is still a real threat in the region, so the United States remains a natural ally. It appears that the Baltic states care more about their transatlantic relationship. The Central and Eastern European countries have begun to feel tired of China’s “promises” and its potential. China’s investments have been on the decline since 2016.

Source: RFI Chinese, February 10, 2021
https://bit.ly/3dbXgwW

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

BBC World News Banned in China

People’s Daily reported on February 11 that the Chinese State Administration of Radio and Television announced a ban on BBC World News in China, citing “serious violations” of the Radio and Television Administration Regulations. China said BBC’s false and unfair reporting “harms China’s national interests and undermines China’s national unity.”

BBC News Chinese Edition reported on February 12 that the BBC officially expressed its disappointment regarding China’s decision. The BBC explained that the BBC is a globally trusted source of news with principles of fearless and unbiased reporting. British authorities cancelled the broadcasting license of China’s CGTN in early February, citing the Chinese Communist Party’s controlling power over CGTN content. This caused China’s strong reaction. The Hong Kong’s government-owned local radio station RTHK also announced on February 12 that it will no longer carry BBC International and BBC’s Cantonese programming.

Deutsche Welle Chinese Edition reported on February 12 that, with the cancellation of CGTN’s British license, CGTN’s German broadcasting permission is automatically cancelled at the same time. Vodafone Germany stopped the CGTN programming due to the fact that its license was granted under a 1989 European license-sharing agreement. Vodafone is currently working with the German authorities to clarify legal matters.

Sources:
(1) People’s Daily, February 11, 2021
http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2021/0212/c1002-32028823.html

(2) BBC Chinese, February 12, 2021
https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/world-56036111

(3) DW Chinese, February 12, 2021
https://bit.ly/3jIrdWw

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Chinese Communist Document Highlights Red Gene: Kids Must Follow the Party

Approaching the centenary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the Central Committee of the CCP issued an official document, “The Central Committee’s Opinions on Comprehensively Strengthening the Work of the Young Pioneers in the New Era.” The document reemphasizes that the Young Pioneers are a reserve team for accomplishing communism. The kids ought to “listen to the party and follow the party.”

The Young Pioneers is a youth organization in China for children aged six to fourteen; it is like many that exist in Communist countries around the world. It provides organizational structure for the CCP to indoctrinate children with Communist ideologies at a very early stage in their life. Established in 1949, the Young Pioneers now have over 100 million members.

The “Opinions” document states that the CCP has always regarded cultivating good children as a strategic and basic work so that the “red nation will never change its color.”

In the CCP’s documents for the past four decades, such discussions about the Young Pioneers are very rare. The document also mentioned that it is necessary for the Young Pioneers to strengthen exchanges and cooperation between the children’s organizations in Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, and strengthen friendly exchanges with children’s organizations and institutions in countries around the world, especially those related to the “Belt and Road Initiative.”

Source: Radio Free Asia, February 4, 2021
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/yataibaodao/renquanfazhi/ql2-02042021043111.html

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

Report Reveals Beijing’s Sponsorship of High-Technology Research in Leading UK Universities

Civitas, a London based think tank, recently released a report titled, “Inadvertently Arming China?: The Chinese military complex and its potential exploitation of scientific research at UK universities.”

The report found that there is a ‘pervasive presence of Chinese military-linked conglomerates and universities in the sponsorship of high-technology research centres in many leading UK universities.’

The report, by Radomir Tylecote and Robert Clark, finds that at least 15 UK universities have productive research relationships with Chinese military-linked manufacturers and universities. The UK taxpayer sponsors much of the research at the university centres and laboratories through research councils, Innovate UK, and the Royal Society.

In many cases, these UK universities are unintentionally generating research that China’s military conglomerates sponsored and which may be of use to them, including those with activities in the production of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) and also including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as well as hypersonic missiles and research in which China is involved in a new arms race and seeks ‘massively destabilizing’ weaponry.

This report analyses the relationships that at least 15 UK universities have established with 22 Chinese military-linked universities as well as weapons suppliers or other military-linked companies. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) deems many of these Chinese universities to be ‘Very High Risk.’

Sponsorship of high-technology research in UK universities covers areas such as:
▪ Metals and alloys;
▪ Aerospace physics and hypersonic technology;
▪ Ceramics, piezoelectrics and rare earths;
▪ Drones and radar;
▪ Shipbuilding;
▪ Data science, AI, and facial recognition; and
▪ Robotics (land, sea and space)

The report recommends the UK government should list all those Chinese military-linked companies and institutions that it wants to bar from sponsoring science research in UK universities and from research cooperation in general.

The authors also suggest the UK set up a new government organization similar to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), whose role would include monitoring and assessment of university sponsorship.

Source: Civitas, February, 2021

Inadvertently Arming China?

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

China-Pakistan Military Exercise Base Found Expanding

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDQ: SINA) recently reported that, according to a number of Indian media sources, the strategic Pakistani Air Force Base (PAF) Bholari has gone through several rounds of upgrades. The PAF Bholari is located in Sindh Province, northeast of Karachi, Pakistan. It is located near the India-Pakistan border. Satellite images show numerous instances of new construction on that base. In December 2020, Pakistan and China had a joint air force exercise. The Pakistan Air Force chief said that joint exercises played a very important role in improving the combat capabilities of the Pakistan Air Force. Some of the recent base upgrades appeared to include supporting bases and the Combat Command Building. PAF Bholari was put into service in December 2017 and it is one of Pakistan’s most modernized military bases. PAF Bholari is positioned to support ground forces, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and some of the Pakistan Navy operations. China also has helped Pakistan jointly develop the JF-17 fighter jets.

Source: Sina, February 2, 2021
https://mil.news.sina.com.cn/zhengming/2021-02-02/doc-ikftpnny3441102.shtml

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Geo-Strategic Trend