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Xinhua Commentary Series: Spotlight on the U.S. Presidential Election

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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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Nikkei Asian Review: Wang Qishan Is Tasked with Improving China’s Relations with Japan

Nikkei Asian Review reported that Wang Qishan used to coordinate the Sino-U.S. economic relationship since he has many Wall Street contacts. However, after President Trump took office, his influence on Sino-U.S relations seems to have been reduced.

Instead, he has been tasked with improving the Sino-Japan relationship.

Wang visited Japan on October 22 and 23, attending Emperor Naruhito’s enthronement ceremony and meeting Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. On December 6 at Zhongnanhai, he also met with the Head of Japan’s National Security Council, Shigeru Kitamura, to discuss Xi Jinping’s visit to Japan in 2020.

Beijing has made Xi’s visit to Japan, planned for April 2020, the number one priority, as its relationship with the U.S. has becomes iffy.

The Sino-Japan relationship stalled in 2012, when Japan “nationalized” the Senkaku Islands, over which both China and Japan claim sovereignty.

Since April 2019, Wan Yi, China’s Foreign Minister, Liu Kun, Finance Minister, and Zhong Shan, Commerce Minister, have all visited Japan. A 25-member military delegation also visited Japan in April.

Nikkei Asian Review said that Wang directed these series of visits.

Li Keqiang also visited Japan in May. It was the first time in eight years that China’s Premier visited Japan.

Source: Epoch Times, December 14, 2019
http://www.epochtimes.com/gb/19/12/13/n11721514.htm

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Epoch Times: Ten CCP “Wolf-Style” Diplomatic Events That Backfired in 2019

Epoch Times listed ten diplomatic events in 2019 in which the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) tried to coerce the world but got slapped in the face in return.

  1. The NBA Incident: After the Houston Rockets Manager Daryl Morey’s words, “Fight For Freedom, Stand With Hong Kong” were posted on Twitter, Beijing blocked NBA and Rockets games in China. However, the U.S. media and politicians overwhelmingly criticized the CCP for trying to control Americans’ freedom of speech. The CCP quietly toned down its voice and restarted broadcasting certain NBA games.
  2. South Park: The South Park cartoon TV program is known for its dark humor. The 2nd episode of its 23rd season was called “Band in China” (meaning “banned in China”). It touched many CCP taboos including camps in Xinjiang, organ harvesting, quitting the CCP, self-censored media, and Hong Kong protests. Beijing banned this episode. South Park then issued a fake, sarcastic apology, “Like the N.B.A., we welcome the Chinese censors into our homes and into our hearts. We too love money more than freedom and democracy. Xi doesn’t look just like Winnie the Pooh at all.”
  3. Hong Kong Protests: The CCP blamed U.S. diplomat Julie Eadeh for supporting Hong Kong protesters and exposed information about her husband and children in the newspaper in August. The U.S. State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus called the CCP a “thuggish regime.” The CCP also tried to prevent the U.S. from passing the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act,” but the U.S. Congress passed it with overwhelming support and President Trump signed it into law.
  4. Joshua Wong at the Italian Congress: The Italian Congress invited Joshua Wong, a student activist and Secretary-General of the pro-democracy party Demosistō, to give a speech at an online conference. The China’s Embassy in Italy claimed on Twitter that inviting him to the Italian politicians’ conference was an irresponsible act. Italian politicians and media uniformly criticized the CCP for interfering in their affairs.
  5. Huawei at Faroe Islands: In November, Feng Tie, China’s Ambassador to Denmark, threatened Bárður Nielsen, the Primary Minister of the Faroe Islands. He said that if they would not sign up Huawei with a 5G contract, they would have no chance of getting a free trade agreement from China. Many politicians from Denmark criticized the CCP and expressed that they would protect Denmark and its autonomous territory, the Faroe Islands.
  6. Prague’s Sister City: On October 7, the Czech Republic’s capital city of Prague decided to end its sister city relationship with Beijing because China requested it to acknowledge the “one China principle,” acknowledging only the Communist regime but not Taiwan. Beijing retaliated in several ways. It cancelled the Czech’s performance troupes’ tours. The Czech Republic criticized Beijing for interfering in its affairs.
  7. Huawei in Canada: On January 17, 2019, Lu Shaye, then China’s Ambassador to Canada, stated at a news conference that there would be “consequences” if the Canadian government prohibited Huawei from providing 5G network equipment to Canada. Ralph Goodale, the Canadian Minister of Public Safety responded that Canada would not yield to Beijing on national security issues.
  8. The “Potter King” Incident: Taiwan Internet Celebrity “Potter King” hosted a show with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and posted it on YouTube. Papitube, a media company in China, which signed “Potter King” for China’s market demanded that he remove the posting from YouTube since he called her “President.” “Potter King” answered that if he can’t call his President the “President” (because if the CCP’s rule), he’d rather not to make money from China. He said, “From the beginning, I have never kneeled down (to the CCP).”
  9. The Kong Linlin Incident: On September 30, China Central Television reporter Kong Linlin slapped a U.K. Conservative Party member at the party’s annual conference in Birmingham. After the incident, Beijing called Kong the victim who was “personally attacked.” On November 29, the Birmingham Court ruled that it was Kong who was guilty.
  10. The Michael Gui Award: Michael Gui is a Swedish citizen who lived in Hong Kong and published books opposing CCP leaders. Beijing arrested him 2015. In early November this year, the Swedish PEN announced it was awarding him the Tucholsky prize. Gui Congyou, China’s Ambassador, requested of Amanda Lind, the Swedish Culture and Democracy Minister, not attend the award ceremony, threatening that Beijing would take “counter measures” against Sweden and prohibit her from entering China. Mrs. Lind still attended the event. Stefan Lofven, the Swedish Prime Minister stated, “We are not going to give in to this type of threat. Never! We have freedom of expression in Sweden and that’s how it is, period.”

Source: Epoch Times, December 20, 2019
http://www.epochtimes.com/gb/19/12/20/n11735005.htm

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics US-China Relations

The Mysterious Person Helping the CCP’s Elite Families Transport Money Overseas

Epoch Times reported that a person has been instrumental in helping some top Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials and their families move their money out of China. He remains low-key, rarely interacting with Chinese and hiding behind those transactions, so very few people know about him.

His real name is not clear. The name he uses in his circle is Michael P. Xu (his Chinese name might be 许鹏). He is a third generation of a Red Officials: His grandfather was a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) general who had fought wars for the CCP to take over the mainland. His father is a current PLA general. The government sent him to study at a U.S. high school and he might have changed his name at that time. He later worked at a senior position at Akerman LLP’s investment banking sector on mergers and acquisitions.

He is well connected to the family of current the CCP’s Politburo Standing Committee member Z. His relation with Z’s family dates back to when Z was holding a local government position. He has also helped other elite officials’ families to purchase U.S. companies via the Chinese companies that they control. Those families include the one of Dai Xianglong (戴相龙), former Governor of the People’s Bank of China; Shang Fulin (尚福林), former President of the China Securities Regulatory Commission and former President of the China Banking Regulatory Commission; Zeng Qinghong (曾庆红), former Politburo Standing Committee member and Jiang Zemin’s right hand man.

He has a good reputation in his circle and has a strong influence both in the U.S. and in tax haven islands. He is close to a Jewish group, especially the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). He frequently comes to the elite California Club, a by-invitation members-only private social club.

He provided strategic consultation for the China Metallurgical Group Corporation (中冶集团), China Merchants Bank (中国招商银行), and a global level company based in Guangdong, on their Northern American business strategies. He also did lobbying work on U.S. politics and regulations.

When Che Feng, son-in-law of Dai Xianglong, tried to buy Digital Domain (the producer of Titanic and Transformers), he had a problem with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court’s rule which required him, in a short time window, to put in money that was already in the U.S.0. Michael Xu moved several tens of millions of dollar in the U.S. and British Virgin Island to make the deal go through.

CCP’s Politburo Standing Committee member Z’s family started transferring their assets from China to Hong Kong and overseas while Z held local government position. One of Z’s assistants is Michael Xu’s relative. Many of Z’s family’s affairs were handled by Z’s son-in-law and Michael Xu through single contact.

Source: Epoch Times, December 14, 2019
http://www.epochtimes.com/gb/19/12/14/n11722684.htm

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics

Xi Jinping Promoted Nearly 100 Generals

In four days in December, Beijing promoted 96 generals.

On December 12, 2019, Xi Jinping promoted seven Chinese military officers to the rank of General.

On December 10, the army promoted 52 officers, including six to Lieutenant General and 46 to Major General.

On December 9, the armed police promoted 37 officers, including one to Lieutenant General and 36 to Major General.

Usually Beijing promotes generals around August 1st, the anniversary of the establishment of the People’s Liberation Army. Observers think that Xi did this large scale off-cycle promotion to impose stronger control over the military, as he is facing the U.S. trade war, Hong Kong Protests, a falling economy, and political rivalry inside the Communist Party.

Source: Epoch Times, December 12, 2019
http://www.epochtimes.com/gb/19/12/12/n11719114.htm

 

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Government/Politics

China’s Experts: It’s Imperative to Enact Article 23 of the Basic Law

Recently, the Communist Regime in China has been talking about enacting Article 23 of the Hong Kong Basic Law. At the annual Global Times (Huanqiu) meeting, two Hong Kong affairs experts in China stated that it is imperative to enact Article 23.

Wang Zhenmin, former Director of the Legal Department of the Liaison Office of the Central People’s Government in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), stated, “The common understanding after Hong Kong’s extradition bill is that the national security issue must be included in the agenda; Hong Kong law has already defined five acts endangering national security, and therefore, Article 23 is not ‘empty.’” He also stated that here is a force in Hong Kong that does not want to acknowledge that Hong Kong has already permanently returned to China and intentionally smears China.

Qiang Shigong, a Law Professor at Beijing University, who also attended the meeting, warned against turning the Hong Kong issue into a “Taiwan-style problem.” He claimed that the Hong Kong issue might not be about the conflicts between Capitalism and Socialism, but rather whether Hong Kong should be united with mainland China.

Note: Article 23 of the Hong Kong Basic Law stated that the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region “shall enact laws on its own to prohibit any act of treason, secession, sedition, subversion against the Central People’s Government,or theft of state secrets, to prohibit foreign political organizations or bodies from conducting political activities in the Region, and to prohibit political organizations or bodies in the Region from establishing ties with foreign political organizations or bodies.” The Hong Kong government’s attempt to implement the article with a National Security (Legislative Provisions) Bill in 2003 caused a great controversy and 500,000 people protested on the streets. Since then, the bill of implementing the article has not been reintroduced.

Source: China News Agency, December 21, 2019
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/201912210108.aspx

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

Data Says China’s Economy Faces Most Difficult Time

An Internet posting by author Tuozhanlaogou (拓展老狗, WeChat account name) has been widely spread in China. Using data and charts, the author explained that China’s economy is at its most difficult time:

  • 28.54 million people used Baidu to search for jobs in 2019, whereas less than 7.5 million people did that in 2018.
  • China’s banking section is making so much money that it squeezes profits out of other industries. China has four companies ranked in the top ten companies with the highest profits in the world. All of them are banks. China’s banking section claimed 40 percent net income return, whereas the U.S. banking section only claims 14 percent.
  • China’s state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are growing and the private companies and foreign companies are shrinking. In 2018, the rate of net asset increase vs. total profit (an indicator of investing profits into businesses) was 60.7 percent, -99.4 percent, and -1.6 percent, for the three types of business. The negative number itself indicates that the economic sizes of the private and foreign companies are shrinking.
  • People are short of money. The fund industry (both mutual funds and hedge funds) raised 500 billion yuan (US $72 billion) in the third quarter of 2017 alone. However, for the whole year of 2019, it has only raised 180 billion yuan.
  • 1,884 movie or TV related companies closed in 2019.
  • New car sales dropped 2.76 percent in 2018 compared to 2017. From January to October 2019, the number of new cars manufactured and sold dropped 10.4 percent and 9.7 percent respectively, compared to a year ago.
  • China’s M2 money is out of control. It has increased from 11 trillion yuan in 1999 to 194 trillion yuan (US $28 trillion) in 2019, twice China’s anticipated GDP in 2019. The U.S. M2 money in 2019 is only US $15 trillion and its GDP is US $21 billion; its M2 is only 71.6 percent of its GDP.
  • In the past 12 months (December 2018 to November 2019), the Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) was below 50 for nine months and above 50 for only three months. The economy is considered contracting when the PMI is below 50 and expanding when above 50.
  • China is departing from real (manufacturing) businesses. Among the total companies’ assets in China, the financial and real estate industries claim 47.9 percent of the assets, whereas the manufacturing sector only accounts for 11.7 percent.
  • In the first six months of 2019, all provinces in China, except Shanghai, ran into a fiscal deficit.

Source: Sina, December 8, 2019
https://cj.sina.com.cn/articles/view/1931232181/731c43b501900jjam

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Macao Refused to Let Some Hong Kong and Foreign Reporters Enter

Popular Hong Kong online new media HK01 Network recently reported that the government of Macao refused the entry of multiple members of the press from Hong Kong and other countries. December 20 was the 20th Anniversary of Macau’s Return and Chinese President Xi Jinping was attending the ceremony. The media organizations banned include Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK, an HK government owned, top and official broadcasting organization of Hong Kong), Commercial Radio Hong Kong (CRHK, one of the only two commercial radio broadcasting companies in Hong Kong), the South China Morning Post (the most popular English newspaper in Hong Kong), Television Broadcasts Limited (TVB, Hong Kong’s largest TV broadcaster), Apple Daily and NowTV. The Macao government had issued official press passes to all of the reporters from these media companies. Nevertheless,  these reporters were blocked from entering, including those from the Radio and Television of Portugal, (although permitted later after diplomatic intervention). The Macao authorities refused applications from all online media companies. The Hong Kong Journalists Association issued a public statement calling on the Mainland government and the Macao government to respect freedom of the press. The statement also asked the Hong Kong government to work with the Macao border control to allow free passage for reporters with legal Macao permits.

Source: HK01, December 18, 2019
https://bit.ly/2PJFepA

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Global Times: Putin Commented on Trump’s Impeachment

Global Times reported quickly after the U.S. House of Representatives passed the impeachment articles against Trump, saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s comments were published only one day after the result was out. Putin classified the impeachment as just part of a political fight. He mentioned that the Democrats failed to prove there was Russian collusion and they now were banking on the Ukraine excuse. To him, this was merely the continuation of the resistance delivered by the losers. Putin predicted that the Senate Republicans are very unlikely to remove a Republican president with such a weak excuse. In the meantime, President Trump said at a Michigan rally that the impeachment doesn’t feel real because the nation is in its best shape in history and he did nothing wrong. The White House official announcement also stated that the impeachment was a sham and that it was one of the most shameful political events in U.S. history. Global Times explained that the U.S. Senate is expected to look into the House impeachment articles in January and, with the Republican majority in the Senate, the articles won’t pass the Senate. China has a “Comprehensive Strategic Relationship” with Russia.

Source: Global Times, November 19, 2019
https://world.huanqiu.com/article/9CaKrnKoqvH

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend