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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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Chinese Hawk Admiral: Strike at What the U.S. Fears

Luo Yuan, rear admiral in the People’s Liberation Army Navy, the deputy secretary-general of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences, and a well-known hawk, was invited to attend a meeting in Shenzhen on December 20 and delivered a speech regarding the current Sino–U.S. relationship.

Luo Yuan claimed that the US-China trade war “is definitely not a simple economic and trade friction” but an “important strategic issue.” The origin of the conflict is that “the U.S. national strategy has changed.” In the United States, there are many differences between the two parties, between the House and Senate, and among the White House, the Department of Defense, and the Department of State. The only consensus they have is the China issue.

In his speech, Luo Yuan strongly advocated that China should respond with “asymmetric counterattacks.” That is, “use my strength to attack the enemy’s shortcomings. Strike at what the enemy fears. Focus our development on the enemy’s soft spot.”

Luo Yuan said that the “five fundamental foundations of the United States” are the military, the dollar, talent, the ballot, and the creation of enemies. Among them, in the military, “the United States is most afraid of death.” Luo suggested using a missile to sink one U.S. ship and cause 5,000 casualties, and two with 10,000 casualties. “Let’s see if the U.S. is afraid or not.”

On the ballot, Luo Yuan claimed that playing the U.S. soybeans card would particularly hurt Iowa, a stronghold of the Trump campaign. Targeting American made cars would make GM, Ford, and Chrysler “second-rate companies.” Luo also suggested playing the airplane card, as one out of every three Boeing’s 737 passenger jets are sold to China. These three items are China’s “bargaining chips with the United States.”

Source: Central News Agency, December 23, 2018
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/201812230157.aspx

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

Dai Xu: If U.S. Warship Intrudes into Our Territorial Water Again, Suggest Sinking It!

On December 8, China’s state media Global Times held its 2019 annual meeting. The theme was, “The China-U.S. competition and the Changing World.” In the discussion regarding the topic, “Will the smoke of war rise again in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait?,” Dai Xu, the president of the Institute of Marine Safety and Cooperation (and a military officer noted for being hawkish), asserted that, if U.S. warships illegally break into China’s territorial waters, suggest China dispatch two warships, one to stop it and one to sink it! “In our territorial waters, we don’t allow U.S. warships to sail at will.”

Dai Xu believes that whether in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait, the situation is not optimistic for next year. Tension will be high. “Why do you put the battlefield in the South China Sea and Taiwan? If there is tension in the Taiwan Strait, we don’t have to worry too much. The development of the economy is above all. We must rescue the top issue. However, if the opportunity is presented right in front of us, why not take it? So, the tense situation will instead accelerate our unification. It will only be the beginning of the liberation war. Therefore, we are not afraid of anything. We should be well prepared, wait, and see. As long as strategic opportunities arise, we should take action to put the situation under control.”

Dai Xu expressed the same view on the South China Sea issue, arguing that the “freedom of navigation” proclaimed by the United States is a provocation against China and an interference in sovereignty.

Source: Global Times, December 8, 2018
http://world.huanqiu.com/exclusive/2018-12/13752665.html

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Government/Politics

Foreign Ministry: Russia Does Not Rule Out Joint Projects with China in Africa

At an interview with Sputnik News on December 18, Kemarsky Andrei Vadimovich, Head of the African Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, stated that Russia does not rule out the emergence of prerequisites for joint projects with China in Africa.

Kemarsky expressed that the volume of Chinese cooperation with African countries is much greater than the Russian trade and economic cooperation with the continent.

“We are interested in sharing the experience of cooperation with Africans. There is a lot to learn from Chinese partners. In turn, China seems to be interested in our cooperation with Africa, in particular in the field of science and technology, the promotion of high technologies, where we already have some good ideas. Some prerequisites for joint projects cannot be ruled out.”

Source: Sputnik News, December 18, 2018
http://sputniknews.cn/politics/201812181027142092/

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

UK Think Tank: China A Key Supplier of Armed Drones to the Middle East

On Monday December 17, 2018, a UK defense think tank, The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) published a report, “Armed Drones in the Middle East, Proliferation and Norms in the Region.” A key finding of the report was that, “despite the selective drone export policy that the U.S. upholds, over the past few years, several countries across the Middle East (Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE) have acquired armed drones either by purchasing them from China or (Israel, Iran, and Turkey) by building them domestically.”

“China has often been described as a no-questions-asked exporter of drones, a country that is ‘less encumbered by human rights considerations over its sales of drones.’ The country is not a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR – – an informal and voluntary partnership among 35 countries to prevent the proliferation of missile and unmanned aerial vehicle technology capable of carrying above 500 kg payload for more than 300 km.).”

“Beijing has capitalized on a gap created in the market. Over the past few years, it has supplied armed drones to several countries that are not authorized to purchase them from the US, and at a dramatically cheaper price.”

The report states, “It remains to be seen whether and how the loosening of restrictions that the current U.S. administration has imposed on the exportation of armed drones will alter the dynamics in the region. Nonetheless, the proliferation of armed UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) in the Middle East is unlikely to stop and could, in fact, even accelerate, either through domestic production or through reliance on external suppliers, such as Beijing.”

In recent years, China’s UAV manufacturing technology has improved rapidly, causing widespread concern in the international community. In November, the official Chinese news agency quoted Lei Qiang, a chief drone pilot of the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) who stated that, although the Chinese drone started late, it has developed rapidly in recent years. Both technology and production have seen great improvement. China’s “UAV development ranks among the world’s top echelons.”

Source: Royal United Services Institute, December 17, 2018
https://www.rusi.org/publication/occasional-papers/armed-drones-middle-east-proliferation-and-norms-region
Xinhua, November 7, 2018
http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2018-11/07/c_1123679748.htm

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Duowei: China’s Most Fierce Unemployment Wave May Have Arrived

Duowei, A pro-Beijing news media based in North America, published an article stating that a series of reports on China’s recent economic data have been flashing some worrisome signs.

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s rate of consumption and of industrial growth have fallen sharply. Both were lower than expected, even lower than the growth rate during the 2008 financial crisis.

The import and export data for November was far less than expected and the growth rate was less than half of the growth rate for the previous month.

It was a foregone conclusion that China’s auto sales experienced their first recession in the past three decades.

The Caixin (Financial News) survey showed that new export orders from Chinese factories have fallen to their lowest level since February 2016.

The China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) ended its 15-month expansion in August, showing a four-month losing streak and hitting a two-year low.

Along with this economic situation, the continued deterioration of the employment market is even more worrisome.

At the beginning of this year, the media reported that the giant companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu have begun to reduce the number of their recruits significantly.

With the advancement of China’s financial sector reform, China has experienced serious debt defaults of P2P companies. Statistics indicate more than 20,000 people will be forced to lose their jobs in this round of company downturns.

In recent years, traditional industries that supply-side reforms have affected directly have become more and more distressed in the area of employment. The media reported that about 1.8 million people in the coal and steel sectors will face unemployment.

Recently, the State Council of China issued a document, “Several Opinions on How to Improve Employment Effectively in the Current and Near Future.” The most striking item in the document was that “companies participating in unemployment insurance can get 50 percent of their insurance premiums contributed in the previous year reimbursed if they do not lay off or only lay off very few employees.”

However, in the face of these Chinese government measures, some companies do not seem to feel the help was in time. The phenomenon of layoffs has become more and more intense.

Source: Duowei, December 16, 2018
http://blog.dwnews.com/post-1080491.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Local Major CCP Officials Visited Huawei Successively after the Meng Wanzhou Arrest Incident

Within 4 days from December 11 through the 14th, provincial communist party secretaries and governors from Jiangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong Provinces successively led their respective local party and government delegates to visit Huawei, China’s biggest tech company, after Huawei’s CFO Meng Wanzhou’s arrest in Canada. They all said that Huawei is China’s pride and they will unswervingly support Huawei’s development.

Du Jiahau, the Party Secretary of Hunan Province, said, “The more (Chinese) companies face ‘severe challenges and tests,’ the more we must increase our support and service; we must join hands with companies to ‘eliminate obstacles on the road ahead’ and continue to be stronger, better, and bigger.”

Sources: Sohu and Duowei, December 15, 2018
http://www.sohu.com/a/281965658_347856
http://news.dwnews.com/china/news/2018-12-15/60105562.html

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

On Structural Reform: “What Cannot be Changed Will Not Be Changed”

At the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s regular press briefing on Tuesday, December 18, a reporter asked, “It is reported that Peter Navarro, Director of the White House National Trade Council, said that the purpose of the US-China trade negotiations is not only to ask China to buy more American products. More importantly, China needs structural reforms. What is your response?”

Spokesperson Hua Chunying started with a vague statement, “It is hoped that teams on both sides can earnestly implement the consensus reached at the meeting of the two heads of state … seeking mutually beneficial and win-win results.”

In response to Navarro’s, “China needs structural reforms” question, Hua then suggested that Navarro and “officials or people who hold these thoughts” should “carefully read and study” Xi Jinping’s speech at the celebration of the 40’s anniversary of China’s “Reform and Opening Up” policy earlier that day. Hua continued and repeated paragraphs from Xi’s speech.

In particular, he said, “To advance reform and development in a large country like China with more than 5,000 years of civilization and more than 1.3 billion people, there is no textbook that can be regarded as a golden rule and there is no one who can boss us around like a master teacher.”

“We will resolutely change what should be and can be changed and will resolutely not change what should not and cannot be changed.”

These words were much tougher than the 45-hour speech of Xi Jinping at the Trump-Xi meeting on December 1. At that meeting, Xi Jinping personally promised China would carry out structural reforms; Xi’s promise clearly played an important role in the agreement of the 90-day trade truce.

Source: Radio France International, December 18, 2018
http://rfi.my/3Wy.T

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

China News: National Bureau of Statistics Responded to Concerns about Economic Pressure

China News recently reported that, at a press conference that the State Council Information Office organized, Mao Shengyong, spokesperson for the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, commented on the status of the Chinese economy. The conference was to address widespread concerns about the fact that the Chinese economy is under high pressure because of a significant slowdown, especially when the just-released November macro economy numbers did not look encouraging. Mao explained that analysts should look at the Chinese economy in the context of the global economic background. Second, analysts should not look exclusively at November numbers only. Instead, an analysis should be done using a longer time-frame. Mao indicated that many countries as well as international trade are seeing weak growth, which triggered the Chinese slow-down. Some Chinese numbers do indicate pressure, but overall China’s economic health shows stability.

Source: China News, December 14, 2018
http://www.chinanews.com/cj/2018/12-14/8701980.shtml

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics