The Chinese card game “Guandan” has rapidly gained popularity nationwide since last year, posing a threat to golf and Texas Hold’em poker as the new “social currency” of China’s financial industry. Such scenes have emerged as financial securities firms giving “Guandan gift boxes” to clients, fund companies organizing Guandan tournaments, private equity and venture capital firms studying Guandan books and skill guides, and industry leaders playing Guandan games at gatherings.

In the past, China’s financial industry was closely intertwined with the US dollar, and social activities largely revolved around western activities such as golf or playing Texas Hold’em poker and drinking red wine. Nowadays, however, foreign sources of funding have largely dried up, and availability of domestic private capital is decreasing too. Financial professionals in China are therefore forced to turn to the government for funding. Since Chinese government officials enjoy playing the game “Guandan,” mastering this game has become critical for Chinese financial professionals.

With the industry drifting towards a “Guandan + Maotai liquor” model, Shanghai has even established a Guandan Sports Association. Originating from Huai’an, Jiangsu Province, “Guandan” is a four-player card game played with two decks of cards, where players form teams of two and must use higher-ranking card combinations to suppress opponents, with the winner being the first to deplete their hand of cards, followed by scoring and ranking up.

Source: Epoch Times, January 29, 2024
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/24/1/29/n14168608.htm

Japan’s Nikkei Shimbun ran an article saying that China’s 2023 GDP numbers reported by the communist regime are likely fake. Given suspicions of data tampering by both local and central party apparatuses in China, Nikkei Shimbun put together a rough alternative estimate using three data points that have a significant impact on GDP: real estate investment, net exports, and household consumption.

• Real estate investment accounts for about 10 percent of GDP. Adding in Chinese consumer spending on electrical products, the sum accounts for about 30 percent of GDP. In 2023, China’s real estate investment decreased by 16.7 percent compared to 2022, which could lead to a decrease of 5 percent in GDP.
• China’s net exports (i.e. the difference between imports and exports) historically accounts for about 3 percent of China’s GDP. However, from January to November 2023, net exports decreased by 32.3 percent compared to the same period in 2022, resulting in an estimated reduction in 2023 GDP of about 1 percent.
• Chinese officials have not publicly disclosed household consumption data, which accounts for about 40 percent of China’s GDP. Nikkei estimated this data using total retail sales to consumers, a figure which increased by 7.2 percent in 2023 compared to 2022, impacting GDP positively by about 2.8 percent.

Adding these three numbers together, the resulting estimated true change in GDP is negative 3.2 percent. Even accounting for the impact of inflation, the change in GDP should be at least negative 2 percent, significantly below the positive 5.2 percent change in GDP published by the Chinese government.

The Nikkei report urged Japanese investors in China to withdraw their funds as soon as possible.

Source: New Talk (Taiwan), January 31, 2024
https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2024-01-31/907283