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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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The CCP’s Performing Arts Troupes in the U.S.

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CNA: Huawei’s 5G Mobile Phone Production Capacity is Insufficient

Primary Taiwanese news agency Central News Agency (CNA) recently ran an article on Huawei and its competitors in the Chinese mobile phone industry. Below are some key points from the article.

Huawei returned to the 5G space with the unexpected launch of its Mate 60 Pro mobile phone in August 2023. Although the mobile phone launch was very topical and triggered a frenzy of consumer activity, multiple data sources show that Huawei’s 5G handset production capacity is quite insufficient. Huawei’s “grand return to 5G” failed to break the pattern seen in China’s mobile phone market in 2023.

According to International Data Corporation (IDC), 28.71 million new smartphones were registered in the Chinese market in November 2023. Among them, Apple ranked first, with a market share of 21.1 percent; Xiaomi ranked second, with 18.3 percent; Huawei rose to 14 percent and ranked third; Vivo and OPPO ranked fifth and sixth with 13.4 percent and 13.1 percent respectively.

Counterpoint Research data showed that, in October 2023, the best-selling smartphone in China was not a Huawei product but rather the Apple iPhone 15 Pro Max, with a market share of 5 percent. The Huawei Mate 60 Pro phone ranked second with a 4 percent market share, and the smartphones ranked 3rd through 5th were also iPhones.

Tencent News said that, while players in the industry had regarded Huawei’s return to 5G speed as the biggest variable affecting the mobile phone industry in 2023, Huawei’s insufficient production capacity means that the competitive landscape in China has not shifted as much as anticipated. According to data from research institute Canalys, China’s smartphone market shipped 66.7 million units in the third quarter of 2023, with Huawei not being ranked among the top five in terms of shipments.

Source: CNA, December 29, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202312290278.aspx

Briefings | | |   Information/Technology

China’s Marriage Rate Among Young Persons Remains Low

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDAQ: SINA) recently reported that, according to the newly published “China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook 2023” compiled by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, late marriage has become a common phenomenon in China. By the end of year 2022, the rates of unmarried persons among various age groups are:

  • Around 51.3 percent are unmarried in the 25-29 age group,
  • 18.4 percent unmarried the 30-34 age group, and
  • 8 percent unmarried in the 35-39 age group.

The unmarried rate among 29-year-olds is 34 percent. In other words, about one in three 29-year-olds is unmarried.

Judging from the age structure of the married population in China since 2010, the age of marriage (and especially the age of first marriage) is now significantly older. China’s average first marriage age in 2020 is 28.67 years old, an increase of 3.78 years from the average first marriage age in 2010 (24.89 years old).

Competitive pressure for employment and longer years of education have resulted in delayed marriage and childbirth. In big cities, young people have a relatively high degree of independence in social life, which has also greatly affected the rate of marriage and age of marriage.

Source: Sina, December 28, 2023
https://news.sina.cn/gn/2023-12-28/detail-imzzqrrs7044951.d.html?vt=4&pos=108&his=0

Briefings | | |   Social Stability

Xinhua: China Exported More Cars in 2023 Than Any Other Country

Xinhua recently reported that, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China’s automobile exports from January to November were 4.412 million units, a year-over-year increase of 58.4 percent. Among them, a total of 1.091 million new energy vehicles were exported, a year-over-year increase of 83.5 percent. Judging from this trend, it is basically a foregone conclusion that the scale of China’s automobile exports in 2023 will exceed the five million vehicle mark.

Japan’s Kyodo News also reported, citing the latest data, that Japan’s automobile exports from January to November this year were 3.99 million units. Although the export data for December have not yet been released, China’s automobile exports are expected to surpass Japan’s in 2023. This will be the first time that China tops the charts as the world’s number one automobile exporter.

In the past year, Chinese car makers have deeply penetrated automobile markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Russia, South America, Asia and Africa, while accelerating the development of the new energy markets such as Europe and North America. For Chinese automakers, Russia offered a large market, and the exit of Japanese and Western automakers from Russia was a boon to Chinese rivals. From January to October 2023, China exported 730,000 cars to Russia, seven times more than the same period in 2022. China’s electric vehicles exports were strong and affordably-priced, one of the primary factors determining China’s top ranking in auto exports worldwide.

Sources:
(1) Xinhua, December 29, 2023
http://www.xinhuanet.com/auto/20231229/5f55c75e3f564789a6fb741e6d85c88c/c.html

(2) Tencent News, December 29, 2023
https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20231229A08X2300

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Xi Asked Chinese Diplomats to Continue Being “Wolf Warriors”

On December 29, 2023, Xi Jinping met with the diplomats attending the 2023 Annual Conference of Foreign Envoys and delivered a speech. Xi urged Chinese diplomats to continue being “wolf warriors”. Some key points from the speech are translated below:

  • “First, remember the original mission of the communist party and be loyal to the party. Loyalty to the Party, loyalty to the country, and loyalty to the people are the glorious traditions of the diplomatic front.”
  • “Second, be a daring and courageous innovator. Actively confront challenges and come up with practical solutions.”
  • “Third, dare to struggle and be skilled in struggles, to be defenders of national interests.”

Source: China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs website, December 29, 2023
https://www.mfa.gov.cn/web/wjdt_674879/gjldrhd_674881/202312/t20231229_11215237.shtml

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

CCP’s Tactics to Influence People in Taiwan

The director of Taiwan’s Black Bear Institute, Shen Boyang, revealed new Chinese Communist Party (CCP) tactics focused on influencing Taiwan’s elections and shaping public opinion. Shen outlined the CCP’s “raising, enticing, and attacking” strategy, part of the CCP’s united front work, where the CCP first supports individuals financially then pressures them to promote CCP-friendly narratives in Taiwan.

Starting 2014, the CCP changed its strategy to focus primarily on Taiwanese youth. The new strategy is known as “three middles and one youth” (“三中一青”): focusing on small and medium-sized enterprises, middle and low-income groups, central and southern regions, and youth. To target young people, the CCP’s online army (“the 50 cent army”) upload content to each of approximately 200 YouTube channels every day.

For example, during the COVID pandemic, the CCP created a channel to attack the policy and efforts of Chen Shih-chung, then Taiwan’s Minister of Health and Welfare. The channel had 30 million views in Taiwan. The CCP also created the supporting group accounts of Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen and Vice President Lai Ching-teh on Facebook. After attracting a large number of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supporters there, the CCP started to post messages attacking Taiwanese politicians and policies.

Shen Boyang mentioned two series on TikTok – one called “DPP Resign” and another called “The DPP’s Domestic Policies Are Incompetent”. These two series garnered a total of 52 million views in Taiwan this year. Shen warned that ifTikTok users see that 99% of the news is about one party’s problems, he might think that the party is truly incompetent [being influenced by the Chinese propaganda].

Source: Epoch Times, December 31, 2023
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/23/12/31/n14147377.htm

Briefings | | |   @CS Geo-Strategic Trend Government/Politics

CCP Central and Local Governments Both Talk About Living Under Tight Budgets

As the Chinese economy continues to show signs of fatigue, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central and local organs are both talking about the need to tighten budgets.

The public communique of China’s National Financial Work Conference in Beijing on December 22 mentioned the term of “living under a tight budget” six times:

  • “adhere to the party and government offices’ living under a tight budget,”
  • “enhancing the quality and efficiency of work is to implement the living under a tight budget,”
  • “form the concept of living under a tight budget, establish a system to live under a tight budget,”
  • “rigorously implement the living under a tight budget,” and
  • “strengthen the supervision of living under a tight budget.”

At the local level, Zhejiang Province, Jiangsu Province, and Xiamen City of Fujian Province have all introduced regulations or issued directives requiring party and government offices to “live under a tight budget.”

Source: Epoch Times, December 23, 2023
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/23/12/23/n14142236.htm

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics

Nikkei Asia: Putin Told Xi the Ukraine-Russia War Will Last for Five Years

Nikkei Asia’s Senior Correspondent, Katsuji Nakazawa, has suggested that there are reports indicating Russian President Putin said to Chinese President Xi Jinping that Russia “will be fighting in Ukraine for at least five years” during Xi’s visit to Moscow in March of 2023.

Nakazawa views the rumored exchange as Putin’s assurance to Xi that Russia would eventually prevail in the war despite unfavorable circumstances. Despite this assurance, China started hedging its position soon after Xi’s meeting with Putin in March. Facing domestic economic challenges and potential international sanctions, China dispatched a “peace delegation” to Europe within two months of the China-Russia summit.

Putin felt that Xi had started to abandon him. To keep China on Russian’s side, Russia shared information about then-Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang during the visit of Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Rudenko to Beijing on June 25. This led to the sudden removal of Qin Gang from his position in the Chinese government.

Source: Epoch Times, December 27, 2023
https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/23/12/27/n14144987.htm

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

RFA Report: Korean Students Studying in China Down 80% Over Six Years

A recent report by the Korean Ministry of Education reported that the number of South Korean students going to China for higher education has decreased by nearly 80 percent over the past six years.

In 2017, there was a peak of 732,400 Korean students in China. As of April 1, 2023, there were only 158,570 Korean students in China, a 6.5 percent drop from 2022 and a 78.3 percent plunge compared to 2017. Each of the past six years has seen a declining number of Korean students in China compared with the year before.

The proportion of Korean international students who study in China has also shrunk substantially. In 2017, 30.5 percent of all Korean students abroad were in China. By 2021 the figure fell to 17.2 percent, and it has remained below 20 percent since then.

Analysts cite several reasons for the sharp decline in Korean students opting for Chinese universities. China’s slowing economic growth is likely a major factor discouraging foreign students, as were China’s strict epidemic control policies of recent years. A third potential factor could be Koreans’ declining opinions of China — polls have shown that the percentage of Koreans holding negative views about China has risen in recent years, especially among young Koreans.

Source: Radio Free Asia, December 26, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/Xinwen/3-12262023110441.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend