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China’s Reaction to Trump’s Election Win

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Xinhua Commentary Series: Spotlight on the U.S. Presidential Election

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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Lianhe Zaobao: Profits of Chinese Industrial Companies Fell Last Year

Singapore’s primary Chinese language newspaper Lianhe Zaobao recently reported that, according to the official data released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, China’s industrial enterprises above a designated size achieved a total profit of RMB 7.6858 trillion yuan (around US$1.08 trillion) last year, a year-over-year decrease of 2.3 percent. This decrease reflects how lower prices and weak domestic and foreign demand have continued to weigh down profit growth for industrial companies. Among these industrial enterprises, there was a significant drop of 6.7 percent year-over-year in total profits for foreign-owned enterprises and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-owned enterprises. The profits of state-controlled enterprises fell by 3.4 percent year-over-year. The profits of joint-stock enterprises fell by 1.2 percent year-over-year. The total profits of private enterprises had a growth of 2.0 percent year-over-year. However, many companies are nearing the end of an inventory destocking cycle.

Source: Lianhe Zaobao, January 27, 2024
https://www.zaobao.com.sg/news/china/story20240127-1464777

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

People‘s Daily: Sullivan Admits that US Efforts to Change the PRC Over the Past Several Decades Have Failed

People’s Daily posted a 17-seconds video clip (with Chinese subtitle) of Jake Sullivan, National Security Advisor of the United States, with title “Sullivan’s Admission: the U.S.’ Efforts to Change China over the Past Several Decades Have Failed.” In the video, Sullivan said:

“We realize that efforts, implied or explicit, to shape or change PRC (People’s Republic of China) over several decades did not succeed. We expect that PRC will be a major player on the world stage for the foreseeable future. That means that even as we compete, we have to find ways to live alongside one another.”

{Editor’s Note: The video clip seems to be from Sullivan’s long speech on the future of U.S.-China relations delivered at the Brookings Institution on January 30, 2024. A transcript of the entire speech is available here.}

Sources:
1. People’s Daily, February 2, 2024
http://world.people.com.cn/n1/2024/0202/c1002-40172130.html
2. White House, January 30, 2024
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/01/30/remarks-and-qa-by-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-on-the-future-of-u-s-china-relations/

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

Nikkei Chinese: U.S. Surpassed China to Become Japan’s Largest Export Destination

Nikkei Chinese Edition recently reported that, for the first time in four years, the United States surpassed China as the top destination for Japanese exports in 2023. The United States economy currently appears strong, and Japan’s exports to the United States are recovering in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy is struggling, and Japanese exports to China are sluggish.

The 2023 trade statistics report released by the Japanese Ministry of Finance showed that the country’s total exports were 100.8865 trillion yen (around US$681 billion), exceeding 100 trillion yen for the first time and representing an increase of 2.8 percent over the previous year. Total imports were valued at 110.1779 trillion yen (around US$743 billion), a decrease of 7 percent. Japan’s trade deficit was 54.3 percent smaller than in 2022. Exports to the United States were 20.2668 trillion yen (around US$137 billion), a year-over-year increase of 11 percent. Exports to the European Union were 10.374 trillion yen (around US$70 billion), an increase of 10.9 percent year-over-year. Japanese automobile exports to the U.S. grew 35.5 percent year-over-year, driving overall growth. A weaker yen helped exports too.

Japan’s exports to China were significantly affected by China’s economic slowdown, a major component of which is rooted in China’s current real estate market slump. China’s unemployment rate is high, and willingness to consume within the country has been weakened.

Despite strong year-over-year growth, Japan’s future exports to the United States still face many risks, including potential slowdown in the U.S. economy. Moreover, China’s economy could be slow to recover, leading to slow export growth for Japan and continued trade deficits.

Source: Nikkei Chinese, January 26, 2024
https://cn.nikkei.com/politicsaeconomy/investtrade/54664-2024-01-26-05-00-10.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Retired Military Leaders Saluted Zhang Youxia But Not Xi Jinping

The Chinese Communist Party’s Central Military Commission (CMC, 中共军委) held a cultural performance on January 29 for the retired military leaders who are in Beijing. Xi Jinping led CMC members including Zhang Youxia, He Weidong, Liu Zhenli, Miao Hua, and Zhang Shengmin to attend the event.

The China Central Television’s (CCTV’s) video revealed that, when Xi waved to the retired military leaders, only one saluted him. But those retired military leaders saluted the CMC’s Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia. Zhang also responded back with salutes frequently. CCTV quickly removed this scene.

In CCTV footage from previous years, Xi would enter the venue, shake hands one by one with the retired military leaders in the front row, and many retired military leaders in casual attire would salute him before shaking hands. This year, however, Xi did not shake hands with the retired military leaders; instead, he waved from a distance. Speculation from the public suggests that this change might have been due to the ongoing COVID pandemic.

Source: NTDTV, February 1, 2024
https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2024/02/01/a103848268.html

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Government/Politics

Artistically Shaping China’s Image Based on Three Principles

The China Social Science website posted a theoretical article, suggesting that “a beautiful and artistic image of China, organically integrated with profound Chinese wisdom, can better fulfill Beijing’s mission to be a great nation.” The article listed three “cultural principles” by which to craft an artistic image of China:

  • Values: “The image of Chinese people should be trustworthy and sincere.” This image not only comes from the traditional Chinese culture, but also from “the communist revolutionary cultural values and advanced socialist cultural values.”
  • Ethics: “China has developed an ethical concept that ‘family and home country are integrated as one.'” “Patriotism becomes the fundamental political and ethical spirit, giving rise to the individual ideal that one should ‘cultivate oneself, harmonize the family, govern the country, and settle the world.'”
  • History: “Chinese culture is diversified because the vast Chinese territory comprises multiple geographical units, leading to diverse economic forms and nurturing different cultures.”

Source: China Social Science, January 19, 2024
https://www.cssn.cn/skgz/bwyc/202401/t20240119_5729627.shtml

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources Government/Politics

Xinhua: China Unveils “Thousand Groups Going Abroad” Initiative, Aiming to Boost Overseas Trade

As China’s exports continue to decline, the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) announced a new initiative this year called “Thousand Groups Going Abroad.” The plan is to organize over 1,000 batches of business delegations to participate in overseas exhibitions, inspections, and negotiations, aiming to secure export orders and expand China’s overseas markets. The initiative will target China’s key export markets such as the Europe Union, the U.S., Japan, South Korea, ASEAN, and Latin America.

China organized approximately 900 overseas exhibitions in 2023.

Source: Xinhua, January 15, 2024
https://app.xinhuanet.com/news/article.html?articleId=a2b554b08f23afaff0f499798e1b9f74

Briefings | | |   @CS Economy/Resources Government/Politics

People’s Daily: Foster a Comprehensive Ongoing Approach to National Defense Education

People’s Daily published an article on conducting national defense education for the general public in China. The below paragraphs are translated excerpts from the article:

“Our army is the people’s army. Our national defense is the defense of the entire nation.

National defense education is comprehensive, long-term systemic work that emphasizes practical effectiveness and the public participation. Facing the current complex and challenging national security situation, it is essential to consistently regard national defense education as a strategic necessity.

Youth are the future of our country and thus the main focus of national defense education. It is crucial to incorporate national defense education into textbooks, classrooms, and student’s minds, sowing in young hearts the seeds of love for the Party, for the country, and for the military. We should leverage opportunities like military open days and military summer/winter camps to conduct effective national defense knowledge training.

Catering to the characteristics of the audience, national defense education should occur both online and offline, with both hardware and software being developed simultaneously. We should fully utilize local regions’ revolutionary culture (historical sites) and new technologies such as big data and artificial intelligence.

National defense education is not achieved through a single event; instead, it needs to be integrated into daily life and pursued regularly.”

Source: People’s Daily, January 21, 2024
http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2024-01/21/nw.D110000renmrb_20240121_2-06.htm

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military Government/Politics

Survey: German Companies in China Face Stiff Competition, Geopolitical Risks, and Economic Headwinds

A survey by the German Chamber of Commerce Abroad found that 46% of German companies operating in China believe that their Chinese competitors will become leaders in their respective industries within the next 5 years. Some 37% of surveyed companies feel that innovativeness in the Chinese market makes doing business in China increasingly attractive, and 11% of German automotive companies in China view their Chinese competitors as already being the innovation leaders in their industry.

About 83% of German companies surveyed believe that China’s economy is declining, though 64% anticipate this downward trend being just a temporary 2-3 year slowdown. Some 42% of respondents expect positive developments in Chinese industry this year.

The investment outlook among surveyed companies was mixed – 54% think that China’s investment appeal is falling, while a similar percentage plan to increase investment in China over the next 2 years. Risks are top of mind, with about 37% of respondents reportedly taking action to mitigate geopolitical risks and some 20% taking action to mitigate risks related to China’s economy.

Source: German Chamber of Commerce in China, January 24, 2024
https://china.ahk.de/market-info/economic-data-surveys/business-confidence-survey-1

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources