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Xinhua Commentary Series: Spotlight on the U.S. Presidential Election

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Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

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Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

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Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

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China to Amend Armed Police Force Law

Last Wednesday, People’s Liberation Army Daily reported that Sun Sijing, Political Commissar of the People’s Armed Police Force (PAPF) and a People’s Congress representative attending the National People’s Congress in Beijing, submitted a proposal seeking an amendment that would put the PAPF exclusively under the command of the Central Military Commission headed by Xi Jinping. 

According to Sun, the proposal to amend the law was based on the need to codify Xi Jinping’s recent guidance on the Armed Police Force and to implement the responsibility of the Chairman of the Central Military Commission. "Our Constitution established the responsibility of the Chairman of the Central Military Commission as an important part of the system. The Armed Police Force is part of the national armed forces. This major principle, that the Armed Police Force must follow the command of the Chairman of the Central Military Commission, must be written into law in order to ensure that the Party’s Central Committee, the Central Military Commission, and President Xi Jinping have firm supreme command of the armed forces."
[Editor’s Note: The current Armed Police Force Law, passed in 2009, states that PAPF is under the dual leadership of the State Council and the Central Military Commission.] 

Source: National People’s Congress, March 8, 2016 
http://www.npc.gov.cn/npc/dbdhhy/12_4/2016-03/08/content_1973601.htm

Briefings | | |   Defense/Military

Why Does a Bubble Inflate Faster Right before It Bursts?

Recently real estate prices have risen rapidly in several major cities in China. There have been big debates on whether this represents a bubble. Financial Times Chinese published an article suggesting that by observing the past stock and housing market bubbles in the U.S. and Japan, one can see a phenomenon; the closer the bubble is to bursting, the faster it expands.

The article gave three reasons:

First, the buy and the short are supposed to balance the market. At the early stage of the bubble, they are in balance. As the bubble keeps developing, more people want to buy instead of sell. The short can no longer restrict the bubble.

Second, as the bubble grows, some investors start to worry about risk. To attract those rational investors, the market starts to offer higher short-term returns. If these returns are high enough, it will attract more investors.

Third, at the late bubble stage, a uniform consensus forms that the bubble will last forever. Almost all investors jump in to buy the bubbled assets. However, if all of them have bought the assets, to whom will they sell to make profit?

Source: Financial Times Chinese, March 9, 2016
http://m.ftchinese.com/story/001066525

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Former Officials Challenged National Development and Reform Commission

On March 9, at a break-down group meeting of the 4th session of the 12th Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), former Deputy Minister of Railways Hu Yadong criticized the National Development and Reform Commission.

"The [commission’s] annual economic development plan should have shown the actual implementation of the Premier’s [economic] plan at the National People’s Congress, but we didn’t see anything [concrete].

"In government investment, how many projects [will be taken on] and where the money will be spent should be expressed clearly. Leave the rest to the market. You (referring to the National Development and Reform Commission) don’t need to give vague words, such as ‘study to make a decision,’ ‘actively pushing forward,’ and ‘greatly promoting.’ These words do not belong in the actual plan.

"For example, the plan said to build a total of 2,000 km of utility pipes (water, Internet, gas, etc.) in all cities in China this year. I say it can’t be that small a number. We are building so many new residential buildings throughout the country; even 20,000 km is not enough [to support this new construction]. We have paid all the required ancillary fees for new buildings. If we hadn’t paid them, we could not have gotten the building permits. Are we going to get the waste water pipes? Is it that we will get them in some places and we won’t in some other places? Where did the money [that was paid] go?"

Source: Sina, March 10, 2016
http://news.sina.com.cn/c/nd/2016-03-10/doc-ifxqhmvc2263122.shtml

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

Former PLA Colonel Luo Yu Talks about Xi Jinping

Voice of America (VOA) interviewed Luo Yu, a former People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Colonel working at the PLA General Staff Department who left China in late 1989 after the PLA’s Tiananmen Square Massacre. Luo Yu has a special status. He is a princeling who knew Xi Jinping personally. His father was Luo Ruiqing, one of the ten Grand Generals (ranking lower than ten Marshalls but higher than other Generals) that China conferred in 1955, after the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) took over in China.

Luo Yu pointed out that there is strong political in-fighting going on within the CCP. Therefore, Xi has had to collect power under himself and use the anti-corruption campaign to cleanse disloyal officials. He suggested that Xi has taken on political reform to lead China to democracy.

"His anti-corruption [campaign] was actually against a political coup [that had formed against him]. If he were truly against corruption, then the Communist Party would be gone because the whole Party is corrupt. So his anti-corruption was [just] against the political coup."

"I feel that he has faced a lot of resistance. It has been hard to tell which things were done because he wanted to do them so his subordinates did them for him and which were done when he didn’t want them, but his subordinates did them in order to create trouble for him. So, [though wrongs things happened in China], I still have hope for him."

"I can understand why he collected power under himself. That was because, among the people around him, whether it was the Politburo Standing Committee members or Politburo members, only a few truly shared the same view with him. It was just Wang Qishan and Li Zhanshu (Chief of Staff of the General Office of the CCP Central Committee). Within the Politburo Standing Committee, only one (Wang Qishan) supported him, one (Li Keqiang) stayed neutral, and four others waited to see him fall. For that reason, he couldn’t give power to others. He had to collect the power under himself."

"I felt that he would change something. At least he will no longer follow the old practice of appointing a successor. I hope he chooses the Presidential election [to identify the next leader.]"

"If Xi Jinping chooses the Democracy path, it will be fortunate for China. Problems that can’t be solved today, from religion to morality, from finance to the economy, banking, insurance, the military, education, healthcare, and retirement funds, will all be solved."

"If [Xi] does not take this path, since the CCP is totally corrupt, it will be finished."

"Is there a third path?" (Asked the reporter.)

"There is no third path."

Source: VOA, March 9, 2016.
http://www.voachinese.com/content/interview-luoyu-on-xijinping-20160309/3228611.html

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

BBC Chinese: Twelve Countries Condemned the Worsened Chinese Human Rights Conditions

BBC Chinese recently reported that the United States and another eleven countries jointly made an announcement in the United Nations Human Rights Council, condemning China’s human rights record and asking China to release detained human rights activists and lawyers. The U.S. representative Keith Harper delivered a speech at the Council, also representing Australia, Britain, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, Norway, the Netherlands, and Sweden. Chinese U.N representative Fu Cong responded with a stern rebuttal with very strong language pointing out that the U.S. attitude is hypocritical, which can be proven by its Guantanamo Bay detention camp, its wide-spread gun violence, and its deep racism. Fu also asked the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein to stop making unfounded subjective comments.
Source: BBC Chinese, March 10, 2016
http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/simp/china/2016/03/160310_un_china_human_rights
Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

Tsai Ing-wen: Taiwan Expects to Sign FTA with Japan

The major Taiwanese newspaper China Times recently reported that Taiwanese President-Elect Tsai Ing-wen expressed her hope that she would be able to start a negotiation of the Taiwan-Japan Free Trade Agreement (FTA). She commented that Taiwan is determined to get this task done. Tsai made this comment when meeting with Mikio Sasaki, Council Chairman of the Interchange Association Japan (IAJ), which acts as the non-official Japanese Embassy in Taiwan. Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has long maintained a close and interactive relationship with Japan. Tsai suggested that Japan can actively participate in her “Five Major Innovation Industries Initiative,” which includes green energy, precision machinery, biotechnology, Internet of Things (IoT) and the defense industry. She also said that Japan can work jointly with Taiwan to develop the Indian and Southeast Asian markets. Mikio Sasaki expressed his agreement on strengthening the relationship between Japan and Taiwan. He thought that Taiwan and Japan are highly complementary in industrial development.
Source: China Times, March 8, 2016
http://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20160308006494-260407
Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

Global Times: ZTE Faces U.S. Sanctions

Global Times recently reported that the U.S. Department of Commerce sanctioned ZTE, a major Chinese multinational telecommunications equipment and systems company. ZTE’s U.S. suppliers are not allowed to export to ZTE. The sanction was based on ZTE’s violation of the U.S. export control policies against Iran. According to U.S. Department of Commerce investigations, ZTE signed multi-million-dollar contracts with Iran reselling well-known U.S. products from Microsoft, IBM, HP, Oracle and Dell. The U.S. vendors claimed that they were not aware of these deals that violated the U.S. ban on exporting to Iran. ZTE announced four years ago that it would “limit” its relationship with Iran. According to recent media reports, the U.S. Department of Commerce obtained ZTE internal top secret documents which proposed a “break-through” plan and recommendations from ZTE’s legal department on setting up “shell companies” with no ZTE branding to conduct business with Iran. The ZTE Chairman commented that the U.S. investigation was “unfair.” Some Chinese analysts expressed the belief that ZTE is just another victim of the political games among countries.
Source: Global Times, March 7, 2016
http://finance.huanqiu.com/roll/2016-03/8665052.html
Briefings | | |   US-China Relations

VOA: Survey Showed that Fewer Japanese People Feel Close to China

Voice of America published an article which stated that fewer Japanese citizens feel close to China. Japan’s Cabinet authorized the survey. In January, 3,000 people were interviewed and 60 percent of them responded. Of those, 83.2 percent felt that they did not feel close to China. The number is up by 0.1 percent from 2015. It is the highest number since the survey was first conducted. Meanwhile the number of people who feel close to China remains at 14.8 percent, the same as in 2015. The results also showed that 9.5 percent of the people feel that the relationship between China and Japan is relatively good, while 85.7 percent feel the opposite. According to the article, Japan’s Kyodo News felt that the reason that Japanese citizens’ negative feelings toward China have not improved could be related to their concerns over China’s activities in the South China Sea. In addition, it is also an indication that the efforts that Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzō Abe put forth since 2014 in his contacts with China’s President Xi Jinping have not seemed to gain recognition from his people back home.

Source: Voice of America, March 12, 2016
http://www.voachinese.com/content/japan-china-20160312/3233063.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend