Skip to content

Xinhua Commentary Series: Spotlight on the U.S. Presidential Election

Read More ...

Wu Guoguang: Xi Jinping’s Reversal of the Course, Will China’s Transition be Peaceful or Marked with Bloodshed?

Read More ...

Cheng Xiaonong: U.S.-China Strategic Relations Have Crystallized

Read More ...

Xinhua Commentaries: “Exposing the Three Major Political Deficits of the U.S.”

Read More ...

China’s 2022 Marriage Registrations below Seven Million, Marking New Low

China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs released its 2022 report showing that only 6.835 million legal marriages were registered last year. This represents a 10.6% drop from 2021 and the first year in recent history with fewer than 7 million marriages.

A Yicai report linked the sharp decline in marriages to (1) people delaying their first marriages, (2) a smaller population of marriage-aged people, (3) changes in mindset among the marriage-aged population, and (4) the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Statistics show that marriages in China fell below 10 million in 2019, below 9 million in 2020, below 8 million in 2021, and now below 7 million in 2022. The trend of decline in marriages has continued for 9 years following the peak of 13.469 million marriages registered in 2013.

Age distribution data show that only 15.2% of marriages in 2022 were entered by people 20-24 years old, down 1.3 percentage points from the year before. A health official said that those born in 1990s and 2000s who grew up in cities with more education and job competition are delaying marriage and children.

Source: Radio Free Asia, October 15, 2023
https://www.rfa.org/mandarin/Xinwen/4-10152023113812.html

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Nearly 20% of China’s Population is Over 60

China’s elderly population continues to grow, according to the latest data released by China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs. By the end of 2022, China had 208 million people aged 60 and over, accounting for nearly 20% of the total population. This indicates that the country’s population is rapidly aging. An official Xinhua commentary said that population aging will remain a long-term challenge for China.

In 2021, Chinese people aged 60+ totaled 267 million, making up 18.9% of the population. The 65+ population was 257 million, or 14.2% of the total. The new data for 2022 illustrates the continued rise in China’s proportion of elderly  people.

Demographic data show that the aging trend will likely accelerate in the coming years. During China’s 14th Five-Year Plan period from 2026-2030, the number of elderly aged 60+ is expected to exceed 300 million as the country enters a phase of “moderate aging.” Around 2035, the elderly population will surpass 400 million, a phase of “severe aging.”

Population aging presents economic and social challenges for China in areas like healthcare, pensions, and elder care. An official commentary said it is a “long-term fundamental situation affecting the nation,  which China will need to adapt to through supportive policies and services.”

China will need to prepare for a society that will have over 400 million elderly by 2035. In 2022, China spent over 42 billion yuan (US$5.8 billion) on elderly welfare and over 17 billion yuan (US$2.3 billion) on elderly services.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), October 16, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202310160131.aspx

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Nikkei Chinese: Japanese Companies in China Plan to Reduce Investment

Nikkei Chinese Edition recently reported that Japan’s Chamber of Commerce in China announced the results of a survey targeting its member companies, which are Japanese companies stationed in China. Due to China’s slow economic recovery and the intensified confrontation between China and the United States, nearly half of the Japanese companies planned to reduce their investment in China in 2023.

Around 25 percent of the companies surveyed said they planned “no investment,” and 22 percent of them said they would “reduce” investment. Reasons for reduced investment included:

  • “the Tokyo headquarters is worried about investment risks in China,”
  • “demand in China and overseas markets is expected to be sluggish, and it will be difficult to expand sales,” and
  • “cross-border data supervision leads to increased market uncertainty.”

Meanwhile, 14 percent of the surveyed companies said they would increase investment, and two percent said they would increase investment significantly. About 37 percent of the companies stated that this year’s investment amount is “the same as last year.”

Some 66 percent of Japanese manufacturing companies surveyed said that “rising labor costs” were the most significant factor impacting their investment in China. Outside of the manufacturing industry, some 72 percent of surveyed companies said that the most crucial factor is “the impact of the international situation.”

China’s post-COVID economic recovery has been slow. Especially in southern Chinese regions such as Guangdong Province and central Chinese regions such as Hubei Province, where the manufacturing industry is concentrated, none of the surveyed companies felt that the economic situation had “improved.”

Source: Nikkei Chinese, October 13, 2023
https://cn.nikkei.com/politicsaeconomy/investtrade/53737-2023-10-13-08-40-40.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

China Imports/Exports Continued Decline in September

Well-known Chinese news site Sina (NASDQ: SINA) recently reported that, according to data released by Chinese General Administration of Customs, China’s September exports totaled US$299.13 billion, down 6.2 percent year-over-year; imports were US$221.42 billion, down 6.2 percent year-over-year. Total import-export value in September was US$520.55 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 6.2 percent.

China’s September trade surplus was US$77.71 billion, down 6 percent year-over-year. Since August of last year, the year-over-year growth rate of China’s exports to the United States has been negative. This past September, China’s exports to the United States recorded a year-over-year decline of 9.3 percent. China’s exports to the EU recorded a year-over-year decrease of 11.6 percent. September exports to ASEAN countries fell by 15.8 percent year-over-year.

Meanwhile, China’s exports to Russia increased by 21 percent year-over-year, a significantly increase over the 16 percent year-over-year figure recorded for the previous month. China’s imports from Russia increased by 8 percent during the same period.

Affected by geopolitical factors, China’s imports of IC chips continued to decline, especially imports from South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan.

Taking into account the downward pressure on external demand for Chinese exports, Sina said to expect that it will take some time before absolute levels of exports are restored to previous levels.

Source: Sina, October 13, 2023
https://stock.finance.sina.com.cn/stock/go.php/vReport_Show/kind/lastest/rptid/750548175594/index.phtml

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Photonmedia: Hong Kong Tourism From Mainland China 30 Percent Lower Than 2018

Hong Kong news site Photonmedia recently reported that post-COVID recovery in Hong Kong tourism has not been as expected. The Hong Kong government hoped to revive the island’s economy after Beijing lifted its Zero Covid policy, resuming fireworks displays and a series of night-time activities.

Recently China had an eight-day holiday starting from the beginning of October. Compared with 2018, the number of Mainland tourists and tour groups entering during this year’s October holiday is down nearly 30 percent. In addition, the way tourists travel in Hong Kong has also changed, and they no longer spend large amounts of money.

According to the daily immigration statistics of the HK Immigration Department, there were 514,000 arrivals on October 1, of which 178,000 were Mainland tourists; 20,000 were foreign visitors from outside China and Hong Kong. Compared with October 1, 2018, both figures fell by approximately 30 percent.

The number of tour groups visiting from the Mainland also continues to decline. On October 1, 2017, about 200 tour groups visited Hong Kong; in 2018, this number dropped by nearly half; as of this year, there are only 75 groups.

The Hong Kong government originally hoped to use the region’s well-known fireworks displays to stimulate tourism-related industries, especially hotel occupancy rates. However, many Mainland tourists have been visiting Hong Kong on a “one-day trip” basis. A popular online tour guide even suggested “If you bring food on this day, about 100 yuan (around US$14) should be enough. There is no other expense”.

Source: Photonmedia, October 2, 2023

疫後十一訪港中國旅客跌三成 百多元「窮遊」攻略近兩萬人收藏

Briefings | | |   Economy/Resources

Another Chinese Official Charged with Data Fraud

Sun Shutao, former vice chair of the Shandong Provincial Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), was recently expelled from the Chinese Communist Party and public office for falsifying economic data. This event follows the similar expulsion of former Jiangsu deputy party secretary Zhang Jinghua in May.

The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) charged Sun with falsifying data so as to achieve personal advancement. He was also charged with engaging in transactions for power, sex, and money. The CCDI stated that Sun illegally accepted huge amounts of property (i.e. bribes).

Mainland Chinese media noted that Sun is the third official who has been publicly charged with data falsification. Before Zhang Jinghua, official Kong Lingdong of Qinghai province was charged in September 2022.

The Chinese government has a reputation for data falsification. In March, National Bureau of Statistics director Kang Yi vowed to crack down on the phenomenon, announcing a zero-tolerance policy for falsification.

The expulsions of Sun, Zhang and Kong indicate the Chinese government’s stance on the manipulation of data for political advancement. Despite periodic crackdowns, however, there are fundamental political incentives in place that encourage such data falsification; the practice remains widespread as officials face intense pressure to meet economic targets.

Source: Central News Agency (Taiwan), October 9, 2023
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/acn/202310090254.aspx

Briefings | | |   Government/Politics

Survey: 92% of Japanese Have “Bad” Impression of China

A joint Japan-China public opinion survey released on October 10, 2023 showed deteriorating perceptions among the two countries. 92.2% of Japanese respondents had a “bad” impression of China, up 4.9 percentage points, while 62.9% of Chinese had a “bad” impression of Japan, up 0.3 points. Compared with previous surveys, more Japanese cited China’s actions contradicting international rules, while more Chinese pointed to tensions over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands dispute as well as Japanese politician rhetoric.

68.4% of Japanese viewed bilateral relations as “bad” or “not good,” up 12.2 points, while 41.2% of Chinese held this view, up 3.5 points. Despite this year being the 45th anniversary of the Japan-China Peace and Friendship Treaty, 81.6% of Japanese and 47.9% of Chinese were “not aware of the matter.”

Regarding Japan’s recent discharge of treated wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the Pacific Ocean, 47.6% of Chinese and 33.2% of Japanese were “worried.” Only 5.8% of Chinese felt that the discharge would “hinder” relations.

Some 1,000 Japanese and 1,506 Chinese responded to the survey, which was the 19th of its kind. The survey was conducted between August and September of this year.

Source: Kyodo News, October 10, 2023
https://china.kyodonews.net/news/2023/10/ccdd04967a15-92.html

Briefings | | |   Geo-Strategic Trend

China Uses Israel-Hamas War in Anti-US Propaganda

China’s state newspaper Global Times has used the war in Middle East to criticize the United States.

One editorial states, “It should be noted that the Palestinian-Israeli issue is a complex collection of problems, and that the interference of external forces is one of the main reasons for the delay in resolving the issue and even for the intensification of hatred. The United States-led Western countries have long been ‘pulling the strings’ on the Palestinian-Israeli issue, and it is obvious that the United States has been behind a number of wars in the Middle East throughout history. After the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the decisions of the United States and other Western countries to hastily take sides has not helped to solve the problem; rather, it is likely to add fuel to the fire.”

Another editorial argued, “It must be said that the prolonged marginalization of the Palestinian issue by the United States and the West is cruel. It is even more hypocritical for the elites of the United States and the West to ignore the actual humanitarian catastrophe [in Palestine] and to discuss the abstract concept of human rights. We have noticed that many in the US and the West have publicly expressed opinions, trying to create pressure to ‘choose sides’, keeping track of those countries that ‘have not condemned Hamas.’ In a phone call with the Saudi foreign minister, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken even unapologetically ‘instructed’ the Saudis to ‘unequivocally condemn’ the attack. Truth be told, Washington is in no position to educate anyone on this issue.”

Source: Global Times, October 8, 2023
https://opinion.huanqiu.com/article/4ErWijmRxmd
Global Times, October 9, 2023
https://opinion.huanqiu.com/article/4EsMjhCtt0J

Briefings | | |   US-China Relations